1. Effects of Insect Damage and Previous Fires on Burn Severity in the Happy Camp Complex Forest Fire Student: Dan Belle Advisor: Dr. Alan Taylor GEOG596A 11 May 2015

2. Presentation Overview  Background  Goals and Objectives  Data and Data Availability (MTBS)  Initial Analysis  Initial Analysis Results and Discussion  Proposed Future Analysis

3. Forest Fire Background  Forrest fires are complex – several determinants of behavior  Chiefly Fuels, Topography, Weather  Many variables influence those determinants:  Wind (speed/direction)  Humidity  Previous Fires  Aspect  Elevation  Slope  Cover variability  Burn Period  And the list goes on… Happy Camp Fire Credit: Kari Greer

4. Old Fires and Insects  Previous fires can influence the severity and distribution of new ones  Can alter vegetation patterns and species  Areas burned at high severity more prone to high severity burns  Effect diminishes with time  Previously burned areas may exclude reburns  Effects can be masked/ overridden by other variables (e.g., severe weather)  Effect of insect damage less clear  Seems like it would increase flammability, but…  Some studies find no significant link  Other studies suggest damaged areas are less prone to severe burns Beetle Killed Conifers Source: USGS

5. Background: Happy Camp Complex Fire  Relatively large fire in Klamath National Forest (Northern CA)  Ignited by lightning  End of dry season, compounded by drought  Burned ~135k acres, Aug-Oct 2014  Predominantly mixed conifer forests  Area previously burned in 1987, 1999 (not including small fires)  Previous insect damage as identified by USDA aerial surveys Fire From Collins Baldy Lookout 9/5/2014 Credit: Joshua Veal

6. Data Availability

8. Project Goals and Objectives  Examine influence of previous fires and insect damage on Happy Camp fire severity  Identify and acknowledge influence of other determinants  Use visuals, tables to conduct analysis, express results  Intended audience is general – intend to keep language and techniques approachable  End state is a published paper, rather than a presentation

9. MTBS Data Described  Multi year, multi agency project (1984-present)  Provides consistent 30m resolution burn severity  Analysis uses pre-fire and post-fire Landsat images  Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR)  Measures change in specific bands  Used to produced severity raster Source: USGS

11. Initial Analysis Methodology  Analysis method based on paper by van Wagtendonk (2011)  Clipped previous fire severity rasters and Happy Camp fire severity raster to equal sized areas  Used raster algebra to create further rasters (old fire data) severity categories within happy camp severity categories  Clipped Happy Camp Severity rasters by insect damage zones  Report results in tables

12. Result Tables  Table at right suggest correlation between high severity old burns and high severity new burns  Insect table (below) inconclusive by itself

13. Proportions of Burn Severity Categories  Numbers of acres in tables helpful, but graphics are more clear  Created pie charts from Happy Camp severity data  Happy Camp as a whole  Happy Camp severity data with boundaries of old fires  Happy Camp severity data within each insect damage category  Useful for visualizing which regions burned more or less severely than overall fire

14. Initial Results

15. Results

16. Results of Initial Analysis  Many variables at play – no “smoking gun”  Other variables (weather, vegetation, suppression efforts) may have masked effects of fire, insects  Effects of previous fires strong in some areas, weak in others  Literature supports positive correlation  Effects of insect damage weak and inconclusive  Literature supports nonexistent of negative correlation  Is dNBR accurate in reading insect damaged areas?

17. Further Steps & Timeline  Examine other variables (i.e., terrain, fuel, weather)  Why did areas with similar fire history burn so differently?  Perform analysis to get at causes  Could incorporate regression analysis – not currently planned  Going forward, will work to improve graphics/visuals, fire narrative  Proposed Timeline  Now – June: Continue fire research, analyze other causes  June-July: Refine paper  August: Submit paper for publication

18. References  Bourbonnais, M. L., Nelson, T. A., & Wulder, M. A. (2014). Geographic analysis of the impacts of mountain pine beetle infestation on forest fire ignition. The Canadian Geographer / Le Géographe Canadien, 58(2), 188-202.  Eidenshink, J., Schwind, B., Brewer, K., Zhu, Z., Quayle, B., & Howard, S. (2007). A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology, 3(1), 3-21. doi:10.4996/fireecology.0301003  Hoffman, C. M., Linn, R., Parsons, R., Sieg, C., & Winterkamp, J. (2015). Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a lodgepole pine forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 204, 79- 93.  Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity. (2015). MTBS [Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.mtbs.gov/  National Wildfire Coordinating Group. (2014). Happy Camp Complex. Retrieved from http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4078/  Odion, D. C., Moritz, M. A., & DellaSala, D. A. (2010). Alternative community states maintained by fire in the Klamath Mountains, USA. The Journal of Ecology, 98(1), 96.  Simard, M., Romme, W. H., Griffin, J. M., & Turner, M. G. (2011). Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests? Ecological Monographs, 81(1), 3-24.  Taylor, A. H., & Skinner, C. N. (1998). Fire history and landscape dynamics in a late-successional reserve, Klamath Mountains, California, USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 111(2), 285-301.  Thompson, J. R., & Spies, T. A. (2010). Factors associated with crown damage following recurring mixed-severity wildfires and post- fire management in southwestern Oregon. Landscape Ecology, 25(5), 775-789.  Thompson, J. R., Spies, T. A., & Ganio, L. M. (2007). Reburn severity in managed and unmanaged vegetation in a large wildfire. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(25), 10743-10748.  United States Department of Agriculture. (2015). IDS [Data File]. Retrieved from http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/portal/Flex/IDS  United States Geological Survey. (2015) Historic Fire Data [Data File]. Retrieved from http://www.geomac.gov/  van Wagtendonk, K. (2011). Fires in Previously Burned Areas: Fire Severity and Vegetation Interactions in Yosemite National Park. Rethinking Protected Areas in a Changing World: Proceedings of the 2011 George Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites, 356–362.  Weatherspoon, C.P., & Skinner, C.N. (1995). An Assessment of Factors Associated with Damage to Tree Crowns from the 1987 Wildfires in Northern California. Forest Science 41(3): 430-51.  United States Department of Agriculture. (2008). CONUS Forest Type [Data File]. Retrieved from http://data.fs.usda.gov/geodata/rastergateway/forest_type/index.php

19. Acknowledgements  Dr. Alan Taylor

20. Questions Night Fire Beyond Happy Camp