1. Sustainable Energy Systems The EU energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on hydrogen and fuel cells Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission, DG Research Tel.: +32-2-296.28.11 Fax: +32-2-299.49.91 E-mail: domenico.rossetti-di-valdalbero@cec.eu.int International Energy Workshop organized by EMF/IEA/IIASA Laxenburg, Austria, 24-26 June 2003

2. Sustainable Energy Systems Sustainable Development l Gothenburg Summit l Kyoto Protocol l Johannesburg Conclusions Research Policy l Lisbon Strategy l European Research Area l Barcelona Summit SD, global change and ecosystems l Green Paper “Towards a European Strategy for the security of energy supply” l White Paper “European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to decide” l The EC 6 th EAP “Environment 2010: our future, our choice” DRIVING FORCES

3. Sustainable Energy Systems Sustainable energy systems (810 M€) Short and medium term impact (DG TREN) Medium and long term impact (DG RTD) Sustainable surface transport (610 M€) Global change and ecosystems (700 M€) SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS (PRIORITY 6 of the 6 th RTD FP)

4. Sustainable Energy Systems SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM RESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€) Clean energy, in particular renewables Cost effective supply Large scale integration Energy savings and energy efficiency Eco-buildings Polygeneration Alternative motor fuels

5. Sustainable Energy Systems Fuel cells, including their applications New technologies for energy carriers, particularly H 2 New and advanced concepts in renewable energy technologies Capture and sequestration of CO 2 Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM RESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€)

6. Sustainable Energy Systems INSTRUMENTS NEW Integrated Projects (IP) Networks of Excellence (NoE) “TRADITIONAL” Specific Targeted Research Projects (STRP) Co-ordination Actions (CA) Specific Support Actions (SSA)

7. Sustainable Energy Systems SOCIO-ECONOMIC (2003.ML) IP/NoETRAD. Quantification of energy externalities Social issues related to implementation of medium and long term energy technologies Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods

8. Sustainable Energy Systems POLICY SUPPORT AND ANTICIPATING SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS Policy-orientated research The development of tools, indicators and operational parameters for assessing sustainable transport and energy systems performance (economic, environmental and social)

9. Sustainable Energy Systems EVALUATION CRITERIA (with Threshold marks) cf. Annex B of the Work Programme

10. Sustainable Energy Systems QUANTITATIVE TOOLS World energy model: POLES European energy model: PRIMES European general equilibrium model: GEM-E3 European econometric model: NEMESIS Analytical framework for RES: SAFIRE External costs accounting system: EXTERNE Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme: ETSAP

11. Sustainable Energy Systems QUANTITATIVE RESULTS World energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook - 2030 (WETO) European energy and transport - trends to 2030 Assessing climate response options: policy simulations - insights from using national and international models (ACROPOLIS) - in collaboration with the International Energy Agency

12. Sustainable Energy Systems QUALITATIVE TOOLS Delphi method for energy technologies (2030) Public opinion perception (Eurobarometer) Energy technology indicators Participatory methods

13. Sustainable Energy Systems POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS Proposal for a directive of the EP and of the Council on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market - COM(2000)279  Use of SAFIRE model Green paper - Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply - COM(2000)769  Use of PRIMES and POLES models

14. Sustainable Energy Systems POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS Green Paper on Greenhouse gas emissions trading within the European Union - COM(2000)87 final  Use of PRIMES and POLES models Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection - OJEC C 37/3  Use of EXTERNE accounting framework

15. Sustainable Energy Systems HIGH-LEVEL GROUP ON HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS Established in October 2002 by Commissioners de Palacio and Busquin Composed of the main H2 and FC stakeholders (research community, industry, public authorities and end-users) Requested to provide a “collective vision” outlining the research, deployment and non- technical actions needed

16. Sustainable Energy Systems PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with current or expected markets H2: PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY CONVERTERS AND APPLICATIONS

17. Sustainable Energy Systems … PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with current or expected markets FC TECHNOLOGIES, FUELS AND APPLICATIONS AFC = Alkaline Fuel Cells DMFC= Direct Methanol Fuel Cell PAFC = Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell PEM = Proton Exchange Membrane FC MCFC = Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell SOFC = Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

18. Sustainable Energy Systems KEY ELEMENTS AND DRIVERS FOR A STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA

19. Sustainable Energy Systems SKELETON FOR A EUROPEAN H2 AND FUEL CELL ROADMAP

20. Sustainable Energy Systems RECOMMENDATIONS Creation of a coherent policy framework (transport, energy and environment) rewarding technologies meeting policy objectives Substantially increase energy RTD budget Extend demonstration and pilot programmes Support and integrate socio-economic research Bringing together financing organisations Europe-wide education and training programme Enhancing international cooperation and communication

21. Sustainable Energy Systems CONCLUSIONS Constant and durable link among European researchers from various disciplines A scientific “reference system” to support decision-makers To combine quantitative and qualitative approaches Permanent “peer-review” of tools and methodologies Researchers should foresee and anticipate policy needs (“Roadmap”)