1. Energy Systems and How Bioenergy Fits into the Main Energy System Prof. Roberto Schaeffer PPE/COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 1st Workshop ESSP Bioenergy Bioenergy and Earth Sustainablility Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, July 19-21, 2008

2. Key Messages  Bioenergy will only grow in importance if it is introduced through conventional fossil fuels rather than in opposition to them  It is better to think about “Alternative Energy Systems” rather than “Alternative Energy Sources”  Alternative energy sources/bioenergy will never have the importance fossil fuels have today  Energy efficiency, and changes in patterns of energy consumption, are the only final solution

3. Why Bioenergy?  What are the (different) motivations for the growing interest in (modern) bioenergy these days?  In developing countries: (1) as a means for “modernizing” biomass use while helping to address energy costs  In developed countries: (1) as a means for providing greater access to (mainly) clean liquid fuels while (2) helping to address energy security and (3) global warming concerns associated with petroleum fuels  And for both, to pave the way for new energy systems

4. World Primary Energy Demand Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 198019902000201020202030 billion tonnes of oil equivalent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 198019902000201020202030 billion tonnes of oil equivalent Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

5. Substitutability of Biofuels with Common Petroleum-derived Fuels

6. And What Is the Brazilian Experience with Bioenergy?  Ethanol use in Brazil as an automotive fuel started in the 1930s, but it was extensively promoted after the two major oils shocks of the 1970s with its Proalcool program:  First phase (1975-79): as a gasoline additive  Second phase (1979-85): as a gasoline substitute  Deterioration phase (1985-2002)  Current phase (2003 onwards): Flex-fuel vehicles  Plus firewood in the household sector, charcoal in the iron and steel industry, and sugarcane bagasse for power generation today

7. Brazilian Domestic Energy Supply

8. Energy Demand by Source in Brazil

9. Brazil vs. World

10. Challenges Faced by Bioenergy to Really Become Important in Relative Terms  Cost (depending upon how environmental externalities are valued)  Limited potential, particularly in the case of first- generation biofuels (if ethanol is to replace 20% of world gasoline by 2010, world supply would need to be multiplied by 8, or Brazilian ethanol production by 23)  Growth in fuel demand as a whole  Existing infrastructure for conventional sources  Vulnerabilities to climate change

11. Alternative Energy Sources or Integrated Alternative Energy Systems?  Non-conventional oil reserves are growing  Oil companies will not loose their importance  Some of the barriers for developing alternative energy sources derive from the “virtues”, and not from the “vices,” of oil  Alternative energy sources can be introduced through oil rather than in opposition to it  Alternative energy systems can produce energy carriers for multi-fuel and multi-product strategies, integrating oil with bioenergy  Energyplexes, or the “refinery of the future,” could be the ‘locus’ for this transition, with the production of synthetic fuels  Synthetic fuels can be produced from the gasification of fossil fuels and biomass, with a possible sequestration of carbon

12. Alternative Energy Sources or Integrated Alternative Energy Systems?  Alternative energy sources would no longer be sources of energy that compete with oil over the short term, but would rather constitute feestocks for integrated alternative systems, complementing first, and replacing in the logn term, oil  In this process, oil could be seen as a modern Lance of Peleus, a contemporary sword that both cuts and heals

13. How to Integrate Bioenergy into Energy Systems?  Electricity  Bioenergy for power generation and energy efficiency have to go hand-by-hand  Biofuels  Greater integration with the oil industry is needed (alternative energy sources or alternative energy systems?) and energy efficiency can also play a much greater role

14. Final Considerations  The Brazilian experience with bioenergy can teach interesting lessons to the world  But probably, with the exception of Brazil, bioenergy will never have the importance fossil fuels have today  A more efficient use of energy and, more importantly, changes in patterns of consumption are the only final solution for the various energy and environmental problems facing mankind