1. plan.be Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa Portugal, March 12 and 13 th, 2015. Gijs Dekkers Federal Planning Bureau, K U Leuven & LISER Joint work with Raphaël Desmet, Nicole Fasquelle and Saskia Weemaes The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium

2. plan.be Separate Bismarckian PAYG schemes for employees in the private and public sectors and self-employed. Civil servants pensions are regarded as deferred earnings. Earnings related scheme with redistributive elements (e.g. ceiling of maximum pension amount) Individual benefit or ‘family benefit’ Means-tested guaranteed minimum pension benefit (GRAPA) Official retirement age is 65, but retirement is possible from 60 on First-pillar pensions in Belgium

3. plan.be Conditions for early retirement Age condition and minimum career length increase Most civil servants now become subject to the same conditions as employees Adaptation of the rules for calculating the benefit Equivalent periods unemployed/UCA are now evaluated by the minimum right per career year The early-retirement penalty for self-employed is reduced or abandoned. Regimes for specific civil servants are abandoned The pension benefit of younger civil servants is now based on the last 10 years of the career Possibilities for ‘equivalent periods’ are extended for older civil servants An overall cap of 5 years is introduced for equivalent periods Pension reform

4. plan.be Unemployment Bismarckian scheme discerning “singles”, “cohabiting” and “cohabiting with dependants”, and 3 periods Reform: Long-term unemployed “Cohabiting with dependants” now also receive a (lower) minimum benefit. Benefit for short-term unemployed (part of 1 st period) increases Benefit is decreasing over time during the 2 nd period Age condition for seniority supplement increases Conventional Early Leavers’ Scheme (CELS) Unemployment scheme for older workers, with additional benefit Reform: CELS Replaced by Unemployment with Company Allowance (UCA) Entry conditions restricted Part-time CELS abandoned Unemployment/Conventional Early Leavers’ scheme

5. plan.be The impact of social security reform Macroeconomics and labour market Base scenario (1,5% increase of productivity per year) Pensions 5.3 Health care 4.2 Other -1.4 Total 8.2 Figure 1Poverty risk to status – base scenario and scenario without the increase of the residual minimum benefitFigure 1Poverty risk to status – base scenario and scenario without the increase of the residual minimum benefit Base scenario (with reforms)Impact of reforms 20112030206020302060 Participation rate (labour force a in % of population 15-64 years) 72.774.274.51.0 15-54 years76.575.6 -0.2-0.1 55-64 years52.964.064.95.86.2 Employment rate (total employment in % of population 15-64 years) 64.068.068.50.91.0 15-54 years68.370.070.2-0.2-0.1 55-64 years42.055.156.35.25.6 Unemployment rate (unemployment in % of labour force a )11.98.58.00.10.0 CELS/UCA rate (% of potential labour force b 50-64 years)8.05.95.6-1.5 Base scenario (with reforms)Impact of the reforms Average annual growth rates in real terms in %Level in % 2011-20302030-20602011-20602011-20302030-20602011-206020302060 GDP1.61.7 O.070.000.031.31.4 Productivity1.11.51.30.00 0.0 Employment0.50.20.30.070.000.031.31.4 Table 2Labour market: base scenario (with reform) and impact of the structural reforms (difference between projection with and without reform in percentage point) Table 3Macroeconomic projection: base scenario (with reform) and impact of the structural reforms (difference between projection with and without reform in %

6. plan.be Table 4Budgetary costs of ageing: base scenario of the Study Committee of Ageing (with reform) and impact of the reforms (difference between projection with and without reform), October 2012 % of GDP The impact of social security reform Budgetary impact Components of the budgetary costs Base scenario (with reforms)Impact of reforms 2011203020602011-20602011-2030 2011- 2060 Pensions9.913.614.54.6-0.2-0.1 - wage-earners5.47.67.82.5-0.2-0.1 - self-employed0.81.01.10.30.0 - civil servants3.75.05.61.8-0.10.1 Health Care a 8.09.411.03.00.0 Disability schemes1.6 1.5-0.10.0 Unemployment b 2.01.31.1-0.9-0.1 CELS/UCA0.40.3 -0.2-0.1 Children benefits1.6 1.4-0.20.0 Other social expenditures1.7 1.6-0.10.0 Total25.329.531.46.1-0.5-0.3 Source: High Council of Finance, Study Committee of Ageing, Yearly Report 2012 a.Public expenditure, inclusive long-term care. b.Inclusive time credit and career breaks

7. plan.be The impact of social security reform Social impact Figure 3 : Risk of poverty rate of retirees by gender – Comparison between a scenario with structural reforms and a scenario without structural reforms, in percentFigure 3 : Risk of poverty rate of retirees by gender – Comparison between a scenario with structural reforms and a scenario without structural reforms, in percent Risk of poverty rate of retirees by gender, in percent

8. plan.be The impact of social security reform Social impact Development of the average net retirement benefits of pensioners, by gender (on the left) and of the average net equivalent income of pensioners, by gender (on the right), %

9. plan.be The impact of social security reform Social impact Risk of poverty rate of unemployed computed at 70% of the equivalent income, by gender (men on the left and women on the right)

10. plan.be Conclusions 1.This paper assesses the sustainability and adequacy impact of recent social security reform in Belgium 2.As a result of this reform, the budgetary costs of ageing are reduced by 0.3%-point GDP. 3.The impact of the reform is mainly via the higher employment rate and the resulting higher GDP growth rate. 4.The risk of poverty of pensioners decreases as a result of the reform. This effect is faster for men than for women 5.The poverty risk for (male) unemployed increases considerably

11. plan.be The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium Thank you very much obrigado pela sua atenção