1. 1 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK An introduction to the OECD Development Centre European Commission Brussels 12 September 2006 Javier Santiso, Deputy Director and Chief Economist, OECD Development Centre

2. 2 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK A bridge between OECD Members and Partners … … to engage in dialogue on development issues of mutual strategic interest … … and foster capacity building in policy development

3. 3 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK … OECD members and partners Governing Board open to non-OECD: South Africa, Brazil, Chile, India, Romania, Thailand are members … research and policy Intellectual autonomy, no obligation of consensus … policy communities All development policies, not just aid … different actors (private, public, etc.) Informal dialogue The OECD’s Knowledge Centre on Development A bridge between …

4. 4 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Part of the OECD’s Development Cluster OECD Development Cluster Sahel & West Africa Club (SAH - 1975) Development Centre (DEV - 1962) Africa Partnership Forum (APF - 2006) Development Assistance Committee (DAC - 1961) Club of bilateral donors Best practice Peer reviews Informal discussion Forum OECD / ECOWAS + Mauritania & Cameroon Bridge OECD members and partners Research / policy Intellectual autonomy Informal dialogue Monitoring commitments G8/OECD – AU/NEPAD

5. 5 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Programme of Work 2005-2006 Monitoring economic Performance (AEO …) Monitoring public opinion Development Finance Policy coherence Strengthening productive capacity building Governance, institutions Horizontal, e.g.: Impact of China & India on Africa, Agricultural policy, Impact of migrations …

6. 6 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK  A resource for policy makers, researchers, students, investors, …  A tool for policy dialogue amongst African partners (APRM, …) and with their partners (EC, G8, OECD)  An innovative product (new indicators …)  An innovative process (tri-partnership OECD-ADB-EC, network of African experts, gradual transfer 2002-07…) African Economic Outlook: monitoring the performance of African economies

7. 7 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK African Economic Outlook 2006 European Commission Brussels 12 September 2006

8. 8 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

9. 9 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK What is the AEO Project? Joint Publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 5 th edition. Joint Publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 5 th edition. Independent, comprehensive and comparative analysis of 30 countries, combining economic, social and political review and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. Independent, comprehensive and comparative analysis of 30 countries, combining economic, social and political review and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. An input for African policy makers, incl. NEPAD APRM, aid practitioners and investors. An input for African policy makers, incl. NEPAD APRM, aid practitioners and investors. Annual focus on major theme (2006: transport infrastructure; 2007: access to drinking water and sanitation). Annual focus on major theme (2006: transport infrastructure; 2007: access to drinking water and sanitation). Improvements in successive editions (peer-review process, improved modelling, broader country coverage…) Improvements in successive editions (peer-review process, improved modelling, broader country coverage…)

10. 10 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Coverage 2006: 30 African countries 90% of GDP 87% of population

11. 11 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

12. 12 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Africa’s growth remains robust Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006, IMF, OECD Total OECD AFRICA %

13. 13 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Oil producing countries are leading growth Source: African Economic Outlook 2006 Performance of oil producers (%)

14. 14 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Oil importers performed better than expected Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 Best Performers in 2005 (%)

15. 15 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thanks to rising commodity prices and increased production Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

16. 16 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thanks to good harvest … and better internal policies Inflation is under control Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 (%)

17. 17 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Fiscal discipline

18. 18 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK … and increased political stability Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006 Political Indicators

19. 19 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK A divided Africa

20. 20 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Despite recent improvements, major development challenges remain … Africa is still behind in reaching the MDGs Sources: African Economic Outlook 2006

21. 21 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Africa receives about 50 per cent of total aid Source: OECD/DAC Statistics (2006). DAC Members’ ODA: 1990-2004 and simulations to 2006 and 2010, based on Monterrey and subsequent commitments 0.33 0.22 0.26 0.30 0.36 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 199019911992199319941995 1996 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 2007 200820092010 % of GNI 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ODA (2004 $ billion) ODA as a % of GNI (left scale) Total ODA (right scale) Total ODA to Africa (right scale)

22. 22 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK …with ODA increases driven by debt relief and emergency assistance Total net official development assistance (ODA), non-aid official flows and private flows in Africa, 1993- 2004. (Source: OECD/DAC)

23. 23 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Progress in diversifying exports is varied Source: Export Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2006 The higher the index, the more diversified the economy 01020304050 Uganda Ethiopia Africa Tanzania Kenya Tunisia Morocco 1996 2003 051015202530 Algeria Cote d'Ivoire Mozambique Cameroon Senegal Madagascar SACU 1996 2003

24. 24 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Long term development requires capitalising on windfall gains & mobilising additional resources to finance productive activities, including… transport infrastructure

25. 25 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? African Performance: A two Speed Continent? 2 Promoting Transport Infrastructure 3

26. 26 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Improve mobility Reduce prices Improve mobility Free time Women benefit the most Better supply of food, water & medicines Faster hospitalisation Better supplies & staff Better use of networks Project selection

27. 27 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Missing links … Source: Pourtier (2003)

28. 28 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Transport & insurance costs as % of trade value 05101520253035 SSA Least Developed Landlocked SSA Landlocked SSA Coastal countries All land locked Developing All Developing Countries OECD Countries IMPORT EXPORT Source: Faye, McArthur, Sachs and Snow (2004) and UNCTAD (2003)

29. 29 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Critical condition of all transport modes Road –Only 19% is paved (against 27% in lat Am & 43% in South Asia) –4% of registered vehicles, 10% of total deaths –Accidents cost 3% of GDP every year in Egypt Rail –3.5% of developing countries passenger flows, but 20% of GDP & population Air –<2% of developing countries passenger and freight flows –Few airports with international standard –4.5% of traffic, 25% of accidents Ports –Most ports are under equipped and have reached maximum capacity –Inefficient: ZAF (17 c.u/h), Dar es Salam (21) ≠ Brazil (42)

30. 30 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Source: OECD/DAC Creditor reporting System (commitments) data aggregated by sectors : 1980-2004 Shift in ODA to social sectors

31. 31 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Infrastructure is back on donors’ agenda Decline in the 1990’s of bilateral ODA, not compensated by multilateral flows –Shift of attention to poverty reduction (MDGs) –Disappointment over past experiences Renewed interest as shown by report by Commission for Africa and UN Millennium Summit Bilateral donors insist on linkage between infrastructure & poverty reduction and leverage for private funds (ex: the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund) Increased involvement of non traditional donors (China, Arab countries)

32. 32 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK PPP experiences in transport second-generation road fundsinvestment of windfall gains Prompted by lack of public finance and lack of access to international financial markets, although second-generation road funds and investment of windfall gains are helping Not full privatisation Not full privatisation but concession & management contracts to allow better risk sharing in volatile environment transport service delivery Positive outcome with respect to transport service delivery (ex: cargo handling) high private sector stake Under certain conditions (high private sector stake), privatisation of infrastructure is successful (ex. toll road of Maputo corridor) In most cases, investment in infrastructure remains public

33. 33 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Money is not enough Strong regulation needed –Strong commitment / negotiation skills –Autonomous regulatory body (ex. Zambia) Better planning (ex. Master Plan for Greater Cairo) –Selection of projects and solve trade-offs –Integration in poverty reduction strategy & medium-term expenditure framework Community participation –Maximising employment generation and easing maintenance –Gender dimension is crucial (ensure participation) Regional cooperation –Economies of scale –Partnering with NEPAD & regional organisations

34. 34 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Thank you for your attention! Contacts: www.afdb.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo www.afdb.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo www.afdb.org www.oecd.org/dev/aeo

35. 35 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Top ODA beneficiaries 1081.0 1144.1 1159.0 1228.4 1235.8 1357.6 1457.7 1746.0 1815.0 1823.1 Zambia Angola Uganda Mozambique Madagascar Ghana Egypt Tanzania Congo, Dem. Rep. Ethiopia 60.6 62.5 63.1 65.4 65.7 67.4 73.2 84.6 89.1 90.3 102.7 103.9 Equatorial Guinea (18) Liberia (17) Mauritania (16) Mozambique (15) Ghana (14 ) Sierra Leone (13) Madagascar (12) Angola (11) Namibia (10) Djibouti (9) Senegal (8) Zambia (7) Source: OECD/DAC, 2006 Net ODA Receipts (USD million) ODA per capita (USD)

36. 36 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Composition of ODA in top ODA beneficiaries Source: OECD/DAC, 2006

37. 37 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Transport in Africa & the world AfricaNorth AfricaSSA % dvping countries % world% dvping countries % world% dvping countries Population, 2004 20.22.33.311.716.9 GDP, 2004 19.72.012.41.27.3 Trade, 2004 6.40.92.41.44.0 Air transport (f), 2004 1.8n.a. Air transport (p), 2004 1.9n.a. Rail transport, 2003 3.50.20.31.73.2 Road transport, 2002 >24.0n.a. 7.624.0 Sea transport, 2004 43.910.425.57.518.4 Source: African Economic Outlook 2006 and various sources