1. Franka Kobbe Global Change Management Physical Fundamentals of GC FOOD VS. FUEL Steak on the plate or bio in the tank?

2. Table Of Content What‘s the problem? Global Land Use Global Food Demand Global Energy Demand EU and Germany Conclusion Sources

3. What‘s the problem? growing world population: rising requirements of raw materials and nutrition & transportation and mobility

5. What‘s the problem? growing world population: rising requirements of raw materials and nutrition & transportation and mobility global growing demand for food & bioenergy land use competition for bioproductive land (Food Or Fuel?) „can we feed the need?“

6. Global Land Use global surface area of continents amounts to 14.9 billion ha  34 % is used for agricultural purposes  26 % is covered by forests (natural and cultivated)  34 % is either covered by glaciers, deserts etc.  2.4 % is built-up land with settlements and infrastructures nearly 2/3 of earth‘s surface could be exploited as grazing land, half of this also suitable for arable cropping biophysical Limit of food production = is reached when all land suitable for agriculture is cropped and the potential yield on each field is attained

7. BUT: land serves also other functions:  valuable ecosystems, high biodiversity, with resilience and buffering functions to support the anthroposphere,  refuges for wild-life,  growing tourist market,  land for industry, traffic and building Global Land Use

8. Global Food Demand approx. 841 million people are undernourished and chronically hungry, 20 % of the developing countries’ total population unfair distribution of income in the world: > 1 billion people live on less than 1 US$ per day to fight world hunger effectively, the yield at grain would have to be increased until 2020 by 50%

9. Global Food Demand increasing demand for diets containing more animal proteins especially in industrialized countries surplus production of food („Milchseen, Butterberge“ ect.)  fairer redistribution of food

10. today: world-wide energy consumption is nearly twice as highly as at the beginning of the 70's rise about 1/3 until 2020 strongly growing power requirement of developing countries (China, India) 1/3 of world population still without power supply Global Energy Demand

11. greenhouse gas abatement policies will force the demand for renewable sources of energy 10 % of world energy demand is now covered by bioenergy global energy potential for use of biomass is estimated 25-33 % of global energy demand (potentials differ regional) Global Energy Demand

12. EU and Germany ! ¾ of global agricultural land use of EU is used for production of meat and milk products ! reduction to a level, that is favorable for health of the population and the environment could result in more area for production of Non- Food- Biomass changes of:  agricultural production and cosuming patterns  political & social frameworks is required! (The steak on the plate is now cheaper than cat fodder!)

13. 2020: 20 % share of bio in all fuels  increased demand of area about 17-38 % How to cover this demand?  more spatial expansion?  enhance productivity & efficiency? EU uses additional 35 mill. ha at non-european areas for food production EU and Germany

14. 17 mill. ha are agricultural used (49,3 % of total area) 4 mio. ha (20 – 25 %) of arable land could be used for cultivation of biofuels, not intended for food production (set aside areas) biomass should cover 13 % of total energy demand till 2030 one of the largest producers of biodiesel mostly from rapeseed

15. Effects of Global Change Conflict will increase: Erosion Desertification Salinisation Settling on productive, high yielding soils  degraded soils water resources (precipitation, irrigation) deforestation of tropical forests high rationalized & intensiv farming

16. Conclusion impacts of a global Bioenergy market on world nutrition, agriculture and environment are not really estimated yet and vary from region to region optimistic view: well balanced world market for bioenergy and nourishment could be a driving force to use potentials in southern regions and the rural area sustainable scenarios are needed and this is only my opinion: fairer world economy is required

17. Sources International Food Policy Research Institute 2020 VISION For Food, Agriculture and the Environment Bioenergy and Agriculture: Promises and Challenges www.ifpri.org A scenario based analysis of land competition between food and bioenergy production in the US Daniel J.A. JOHANSSON - Christian AZAR Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Global Issue Papers No. 20 August 2005: Bio im Tank: Chancen – Risiken – Nebenwirkungen Dokumentation einer Fachtagung der Heinrich Böll Stiftung am 15. April 2005 in Berlin

18. Thanks For Your Attention! And merry christmas! Questions?

19. Comments for Franka Kobbe from Manfred Stock 1.To be finished.....