2. Food and Governance Duncan Green Ecumenical World Development Conference Swanwick October 2012

3. The Challenge: Slide back into an Age of Scarcity Or go forward into an Age of Development?

4. The food system is failing A billion hungry people 1.5 billion anaemic through iron deficiency Half a million kids go blind every year due to lack of vitamin A And at the same time 1.5 billion overweight adults (of which 0.5 billion obese)

5. Hunger rising since the mid 90s Source: WFP

6. Framing: The Standard Response Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Climate Change 1.Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? 2.Can we cope with the future demands on water? 3.Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? 4.Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? 5.Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity

7. What’s missing from this picture? Power: who decides? (Amartya Sen on famine) Distribution: who benefits? Justice: what is fair? Which brings us to governance

8. Governance in the south: my guru

9. Ha-Joon Chang: lessons from 21 successful countries Need to ‘free policy imagination’ Role of the state –Smallscale farmers are central (Vietnam) –Importance of land reform (Japan, Taiwan) –State-backed credit and insurance –Encourage organization (co-ops etc) –Stabilize prices (USA, Chile) But delivery can be public, private or mixed (i.e. Different from industry)

10. To which, I would add Gender –Gender equality would boost output by up to 10% –land ownership (15-20% women) –Access to credit –extension services (5% aimed at women) –Reproductive health Resilience –Adapting to climate change (rubber) –From tradition to science The Power of Organization –Against land grabs and rip-offs –For better deals in markets (farmers want to sell, not just grow)

11. Other missing pieces: Volatility and urbanization The Number of hungry people in cities is rising. Our research (with IDS) shows –Food Price Volatility -> inequality –Having fun matters as well as eating What do poor people need? –Jobs –Social protection (often informal) –Price stability –Women need help with extra pressure

12. Why Food Price Volatility matters

13. What about the rich countries? Production: Waste Consumption: is meat murder? Competition (biofuels, land grabs) R&D: –Technology for whom? –Decelerating productivity growth Aid to ag down in last 20 years from 20% to 7%

14. Aid and Trade WTO lets rich countries off eg with subsidies (40 x aid) Food security v self sufficiency –Panic buying and export bans, but what about Yemen? Biofuels waste money and food Food aid system overstretched and clunky Policy advice often very free market (ignoring lessons of history)

15. PROBLEM – more of the same, elites failing a failing food system disempowering inequality the age of crisis planetary boundaries

16. SOLUTION – the many working together the new prosperity a good food system fair shares valuing precious resources