1. Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China Jie-hua LU 1, Hong-bo WANG 2, and Yi PAN 1 1. Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing, China; 2. Department of Sociology, UCLA, Los Angeles, USA.

2. OUTLINE INTRODUCTION LITERATURE REVIEW RESEARCH DESIGN,DATA SOURCE AND METHODS ANALYSIS RESULTS CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS

3. INTRODUCTION Rapid ageing process coupled with rapidest increase of oldest old in China; Increasing recognition about the oldest old worldwide.

4. INTRODUCTION Determinants of healthy longevity:  Individual factors;  Environmental factors;  Economic factors;  Social factors.

5. LITERATURE REVIEW There are some commons among longevity villages: favorable environments (Li et al, 1999; Cheng, 1998; Li et al, 1997); There is a relationship between food habit and longevity (Li et al, 1999; Yan, 2000); There is a positive relation between population density and death rates ( Pritchard and Evans, 1997); Economic growth is positively related to ageing process (Yao, 2000; Yang and Mi, 1999);

6. LITERATURE REVIEW Few studies bring environmental and socio- economic factors into analysis.

7. RESEARCH DESIGN,DATA SOURCE AND METHODS Assumptions: Environmental and socio- economic factors have some influences on longevity at county level; Community survey in 1998: covering 660 counties among 22 provinces, which has some rich information; 484 counties are included in this study;

8. RESEARCH DESIGN,DATA SOURCE AND METHODS Multi-regression is employed in this study, because it could evaluate the net influence of each independent variable and then compare the relative importance.

9. RESEARCH DESIGN,DATA SOURCE AND METHODS Longevity percentage=b 0 +b 1 longitude+b 2 latitude+b 3 distance from capital+b 4 average temperature of Jul. +b 5 average temperature of Jan..+b 6 extreme high temperature+b 7 extreme low temperature +b 8 annual frostless period +b 9 annual rainfall+b 10 loess+b 11 blackland+b 12 other soil +b 13 wheat+ b14 corn+b 15 broomcorn+b 16 other food production +b 17 density of population in 1990 +b 18 mortality in 1982+b 19 mortality in 1990+b 20 infant mortality rate in 1982+b 21 percentage of urban population in1982+b 22 percentage of urban population in 1990+b 23 sickbeds in hospital every 10000 people + e

10. ANALYSIS RESULTS Independent variablesStandardized regression coefficient （ beta ） TToleranceVIF Longitude0.191***2.5370.3712.695 Latitude0.1821.2470.09610.403 Distance from capital or big city nearby 0.0160.3390.8681.152 Average temperature of Jul.-0.101*-1.8210.6681.496 Average temperature of Jan.0.397***3.4050.1506.666 Extreme high temperature-0.102**-2.0790.8531.172 Extreme low temperature0.190**2.2270.2803.572 Annual frostless period0.200*1.8850.1815.533 Annual rainfall0.1791.5280.1496.711 Loess0.0440.6150.3922.552 Blackland0.197**2.9560.4592.177 Other soil0.0570.8900.4912.035 Wheat0.364***4.9370.3762.658 Corn0.0701.4960.9251.081 Broomcorn0.196***3.9690.8331.201 Other types of agricultural food production 0.094**2.0250.9521.051 Density of population in 19900.0460.8140.6321.583 Gross death rate in 1982 -0.017-0.2470.4192.384 Gross death rate in 1990 -0.167**-2.5170.4642.157 Infant mortality rate in 1982-0.165**-2.8390.6011.664 Percentage of urban population in 1982-0.082-0.9590.2813.556 Percentage of urban population in 19900.0210.2320.2593.860 Sickbeds per 10000 people0.0110.2210.8421.188 N

11. ANALYSIS RESULTS There is a negative relation between gorss death rates and longevity; Economic development did improve population longevity (IMR); Mild climate is of great help for longevity; Longer the frostless period the higher longevity; Blackland has a positive impact on longevity in contrast to other types of soils;

12. ANALYSIS RESULTS The wheat region, broomcorn region and region of other types have positive effect on longevity; Average temperature plays a most important role in shaping survival and longevity. Variables such as urbanization, population density, distance from the capital, etc., are not statistically significant.

13. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Environmental factors are dominant in shaping the longevity at county level in China; Socio-economic factors are also important, but their influences are relatively weaker.

14. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Limitations:  questions about the selections of socio- economic variables;  Gender differences in life expectancies.

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