1. Climatic Impacts on Water Resource Sustainability Richard T. McNider John R. Christy Abigail Crane Office of State Climatologist University of Alabama in Huntsville

2. 64-66” 54-56” 56-58” 58-60”

5. 1941-1943 1904 19541981 1987-88 2005-06 2000 Statewide Annual Average Precipitation

11. Jan-Jun Alabama Rainfall 1895-2007

12. Statewide January –July Precipitation 2006 2007

13. 2007 March 850 mb Height Field Looks like a May Pattern

14. March Average Climatology

15. 2007 May 850 mb Analysis Looks like a September/October Pattern

16. Sustainability Climate Change

17. Alabama Statewide Precipitation

21. Sustainability Population Growth

22. With an average annual rainfall of near 55 inches Alabama receives about 145 million acre-feet of water annually.

23. 1.0 ft 2.0 ft 3.0 ft 4.0 ft 5.0 ft Evaporation Groundwater Run-off Evaporation Groundwater Run-off ForestCity Where does Alabama’s Rainfall Go?

24. Apalachicola – Blountstown 16 million acre-ft/yr Alabama River -Monroeville 24 million acre-ft/yr Colorado River – Glen Canyon 10 million acre-ft/yr River Flows Are Huge in Alabama Tennessee –Huntsville 30 million acre-ft/yr Apalachicola Alabama Tombigbee Tennessee Tombigbee River - Coffeeville 19 million acre-ft/yr

25. Alabama has plenty of water availability on an annual basis. Even in the dry years rivers have huge flows compared to western rivers. However, during the summer the consumption of water by the vegetation of the region reduces stream flows to critically low levels. On-demand (summer withdrawals) for irrigation may reduce stream flows to critically low levels

26. Annual Fraction of Water Withdrawal in Southeast is Extremely Low Based on Withdrawals (USGS) Millions of Acre-ft /year

27. Net Consumption of Water 2.5% 27% 102%

28. Dr. Ge Sun U.S. Forest Service

31. 0-10% more water available 10-20% more water available

32. Summary - Sustainability Climate change and population growth (as we understand it now) do not appear to be a threat to precipitation and overall water quantity. Urban sprawl and population growth are a threat to water quality. Population growth may pressure existing water storage and delivery infrastructure in some areas.

33. What is not sustainable – Alabama’s rain-fed row crop agriculture!

34. Corn needs 8-9 inches water to produce maximum yields Inches

35. Landowners faced with the competition of Western subsidized irrigated agriculture and deep water holding soils in mid-west resorted to accepting government set asides or timber farming. Land is now in timber or low intensity pasture. When a farmer is farming he is turning over $500-$750 per acre per year which is part of the local economy With timber production he is only turning over $18-39 per acre per year into the local economy. Rural towns dependent on farming business died out. The loss of agriculture devastated rural economies (Birmingham News.Bernard Troncale) Timberland not necessarily under- taxed it is simply too under- productive

36. Alabama lost its agriculture largely because it couldn’t compete due to a lack of water for crops. What if Alabama used its vast surface water to irrigate? Rio Grande 0.8 million ac-ft/year Alabama River @ Claiborne 10 to 34 million ac-ft/year The Alabama River in Monroe County had an annual flow for the driest year on record (2000) of near 10 million acre-ft - 12 times that of the Rio Grande

37. Yield (bu/ac) Irrigated Non-Irrigated 9.7” water applied Acre-ft water can be worth $125 in net profit

38. Yield (bu/ac) Irrigated Non-Irrigated

39. Water Run-offIrrigated Acreage

40. Sustainable Southeastern Model - Storage of Winter Surface Water – Auburn Larry Curtis Model Even in dry years crops need less than a foot of water. Irrigation can be supported with a fraction of the winter river flow removed.

41. Add Water Withdrawal

42. University Irrigation Study – Sponsored by Senator Shelby with support from Senator Sessions and the Congressional Delegation, Commisioner of Agriculture, ALFA and EDPA. Includes Auburn, Alabama A&M, Tuskegee, U. of Alabama, UAH Is investment in irrigation infrastructure the proper choice for Alabama to use its State/County tax credit investment funds and its powerful but limited Congressional initiatives? Are there agricultural issues, environmental issues and social issues that might limit the potential of irrigation in the State? This university team is working to provide an interim assessment document to the legislature and the Governor by next January.