1. COAWST Modelling System Training 27 August 2014 Stephen D. Nicholls and Karen I. Mohr NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center

2. Precipitation climate: Diurnal cycle, total rainfall, distribution Motivation: GCMs and CORDEX lack temporal and spatial resolution. Central Andes very sensitive to climate change. Objectives: Determine stability and feasibility of COAWST as a regional climate model Run year-long COAWST simulation to gain precipitation climate “snapshots”

3. COAWST rev 727 (May 2012) WRF 2 domains (27, 9 km) 61 vertical levels Model top: 50 hPa ROMS 1 domain (~10 km) 16 vertical levels Open boundaries No SWAN Current and future wave climate? Coupling: WRF 1 <> ROMS WRF ROMS

4. Lateral boundaries: Atm, Ocn: MIROC5 (0.7°) Tides: OSU Time steps: WRF: 60 sec, 20 sec ROMS: 10 sec Coupling: 30 mins Free-running simulation Modified landuse USGS = 1991, MODIS = 2003 Forest and glacier loss WRF ROMS

5. All simulations for entire year (Oct-Oct) “Current” climate (2003-04) WRF uncoupled, WRF-ROMS coupled Future climate (2031-32, 2059-60, 2087-88) Two parts RCP comparisons (RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) Year comparisons (RCP 6.0)

6. Cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch) off domain 2 Over-generation of rain when active Model and parameterization at 9 km??

7. Precipitation + SST Impacts on atmosphere Precipitation impacts in Andes

8. TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

9. TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

10. TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

11. TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

12. TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

13. Plots: Top (Oct) Bottom (June) Ocean upwelling Decreased instability

15. No change to distribution, but changes in average precip ∆Precip days Cuzco -9 Sajama +6 Sucre +21 Tuni -11

16. Precipitation Precipitation impacts in Andes

17. CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

18. CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

19. CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

20. CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

21. CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

23. Diurnal cycle fairly robust Temp precip “bump” Cuzco, Sajama Upper air ∆Precip days (2087-2003) Cuzco -12 Sajama -9 Sucre -16 Tuni -20

24. WRF-ROMS runs lean toward a La Niña pattern MIROC issue or ROMS bias or WRF radiation issue or forcing issue Convective parameterization: No parameterization works well short term, but less effective long term Potential issues with model configuration? Eg. WRF model top, etc. Problem with two-way interaction when both WRF grids not coupled to ROMS. Model buffer zones Future work

25. Thanks for you attention and time!!! Questions, comments???

26. Modified raw MODIS landcover (WPS_geog) Landcover change rates Amazon (AZ) = ↓ 7000.0 km2/yr (Davidson et al. 2012) > 2003 Atlantic Forest (AF): ↓ 0.343%/yr (Ribiero et al. 2009) Chaco (CH): ↓ 2.2%/yr (Zak et al. 2004) Tropical Glaciers (TG): 0.6785% (Slayback and Yegar 2006) Forest (#1-5 vary) to cropland (#12) Ice (#25) to tundra (#20)

27. Microphysics – Goddard Longwave Rad. – New Goddard Shortwave Rad. – New Goddard Surface layer – Eta similarity Land Surface – NOAH Boundary Layer – Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Cumulus – Kain Fritsch (Turned off domain 2)

28. #define ROMS_MODEL # define WRF_MODEL # define MCT_INTERP_OC2AT #define UV_ADV #define UV_COR #define UV_VIS2 #define MIX_S_UV #define TS_U3HADVECTION #define TS_C4VADVECTION #undef TS_MPDATA # define UV_LOGDRAG #define DJ_GRADPS #define TS_DIF2 #define MIX_GEO_TS #define SALINITY #define SOLVE3D #define SPLINES #undef AVERAGES #define NONLIN_EOS #define MASKING #define MCT_LIB # undef BULK_FLUXES # define ATM2OCN_FLUXES # define ANA_SSFLUX # undef LONGWAVE_OUT #undef MY25_MIXING # define KANTHA_CLAYSON # define N2S2_HORAVG #define RADIATION_2D /* ok */ #define RAMP_TIDES /* ok */ #defineSSH_TIDES /* ok */ #define ADD_FSOBC /* ok */ #define ANA_FSOBC /* ok */ #defineUV_TIDES /* ok */ #define ADD_M2OBC /* ok */ #define ANA_M2OBC /* ok */ #define EAST_FSCHAPMAN #define EAST_M2FLATHER #define EAST_M3RADIATION #define EAST_TRADIATION /*

29. Energy norm Scale-adjusted perturbations (model-obs) of U, V, W, P, T, and Q) Despite SST errors and free running, model simulation remains stable