1. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9 Data Sources for Estimating GDP

2. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Censuses (1) Population census: – Size of population by gender and age – Growth rates – Housing, employment Agricultural census – Crop production – Livestock type and numbers – Income and expenditure These censuses are usually carried out every ten years and provide the benchmark figures which can be extrapolated by volume indicators for the years between censuses.

3. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Censuses (2) Industry – Production – Inputs – Capital formation – Employment – Inventories Housing – Numbers – Type of construction – Facilities – Year when built Benchmark estimates extrapolated for years between censuses

4. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Living Standards Measurement Study The LSMS is a World Bank program helping countries to measure living standards through household surveys and community surveys. LSMS surveys include modules on a large number of demographic, social and economic topics. LSMS surveys provide benchmark data for national accounts on household expenditure and income, employment, household and business assets, food intake ….

5. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Enterprise surveys (1) Cover enterprises operating from fixed locations Often carried out annually but in some countries less frequently Collect data on sales, purchases, inventories, wages and employment. May be tailored to the kind of activity, e.g.: – Retail outlet – Restaurant – Factory

6. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Enterprise surveys (2) Short or long questionnaires? For the national accounts we are mainly interested in wages and salaries paid and profits earned. Can we ask directly for profits? Or do we need longer questionnaires asking about all outputs and all inputs? Some countries have tried experiments.

7. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Results of survey of unorganized manufacturing enterprises. India, 2000/2001 AllUrbanRural GVA: based on detailed questions71,49589,66443,852 GVA: based on short questions68,27785,61541,898 Gap %-4,50-4,52-4,46 No. Observations150,77590,97859,797

8. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Household Surveys Income and expenditure surveys – Monthly, quarterly, annually ? – Diaries or memory – Recall period – Income/expenditure consistency Labor force surveys – Monthly, quarterly, annual – Working or not – Earnings – Kind of activity – Occupation

9. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Combined Household/Enterprise Surveys (1-2 Surveys) Household survey (1) Usually a labour force survey Extra questions included to determine if anyone in the household is running a business These households form the survey frame for the enterprise survey Enterprise survey (2) Type of business Number of employees Family workers Sales Business expenses Value added;

10. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Administrative sources Government accounts Government accounts – Budget, provisional, final. – IMF Government Finance Statistics. This is a better source for the national accounts than the government accounts themselves. – Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) – Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). This where you will find expenditures on infrastructure. – Strategic stocks – Consumption of fixed capital (CFC)

11. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Administrative sources Government Consumption of Fixed Capital Government CFC is the using up of government’s fixed capital assets and is an important part of the costs of producing government services. The SNA requires estimates of CFC in both government final consumption expenditure (part of GDP(E)) and in government value added (part of GDP(P)). The correct procedure is to estimate PIM from a perpetual inventory model (PIM). If you have no PIM, you can use “depreciation” if this is shown in the government accounts. But it should be at least 5% of government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) If you have no PIM and no depreciation in the government accounts, make an assumption that CFC is between 5%-7% of GFCE depending on the level of economic development.

12. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Administrative sources Trade and Taxes Merchandise trade statistics – Household consumption – Intermediate consumption – Capital formation in plant and machinery Tax records – Income tax – Sales taxes and VAT – Excise duties on alcohol and tobacco

13. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Administrative sources Regulator records Central bank data on the commercial banks and other financial institutions Insurance regulator Vehicle registration records Building permits

14. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Administrative sources Private sector Company accounts Chambers of commerce – Membership lists – Business surveys Business registration records

15. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.

16. International Sources FAO Food Balances For 200 countries and 200 crops Total domestic supply: – Domestic production, imports, exports, change in stocks Intermediate and final uses: – Feed – Seed – For processing – Consumption Quantities only

17. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. CountriesItemElement2003 MalaysiaPineapplesProduction (tonnes)320000 MalaysiaPineapplesImport Quantity (tonnes)2792 MalaysiaPineapplesStock Variation (tonnes)0 MalaysiaPineapplesExport Quantity (tonnes)69067 MalaysiaPineapples Domestic supply quantity (tonnes)253725 MalaysiaPineapples Food manufacture quantity (tonnes)15481 MalaysiaPineapplesFood (tonnes)238077 MalaysiaPineapplesOther Utilisation (tonnes)167

18. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. International sources OECD and other countries OECD – Input output data bank – Developing as well as developed countries – Intermediate consumption coefficients for 47 kinds of activities. Other countries’ data – Living Standards Measurement Studies surveys – Country reports

19. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Lessons? National accounts draw on the full range of statistics collected by the statistical office. Some will be out of date and most will need adjustments. National accounts in all countries rely on administrative data: – Government – Regulators – Private sector Don’t forget international sources. You can also borrow from another country