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1 Argentine Power Sector Market operation - facing stress situations CAMMESA Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico APEX Conference October 2006 Seoul, Korea
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WEM – Basic Rules - Global Figures – Key Indicators Macroeconomic changes - Impacts Fuel Supply Pre financing Maintenance Expectations - Concerns Outline
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Market established in 1992 Spot Market (80%) SHORT-TERM MARGINAL-COST BASED STABILISED SEASONAL PRICES FOR DISTRIBUTORS (regulated) HOURLY PRICES IN SPOT MARKET (capped to gas prices) ADDITIONAL PAYMENT FOR CAPACITY (12 $/Mwh; 90 hours per week) REMUNERATION FOR ANCILLIARY SERVICES Contract Market (20%) CONDITIONS AGREED BETWEEN PARTIES Basic Market Operating Rules
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Installed Capacity 24 GW Peak LOAD 18 GW Generation 2005 98 TWh 500 kV 9.100 km 220/132 kV 12.000 km WEM - Participants Generators 53 Distributors 63 Large Consumers Ma302 Large Consumers Mi 2006 Transmission COs 10 Traders 4 Wholesale Electrical Market - 2005
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Dic 2001 => political crisis with deep recession in economy led to the fall of the government; social instability Austral summer 2002 New transition government Debt default; end of the fixed exchange rate (1$=1u$S) and devaluation economic emergency law => pesification of economy Profound economic crisis; inflation Macroeconomic Changes
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Since July 2002 => conditions begin to stabilize; relative normalization of the behaviour of economy May 2003 => new elected government Macroeconomic Changes Evolution of exchange rate=> Increase of industrial demand due to greater competitiveness to export and import substitution Exchange rate => 200% Inflation => about 80%
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Tariffs to end consumers => social impossibility to increase tariffs due to economic crisis and people impoverishment Pesification of natural gas, energy and capacity prices on the WEM Increase of imported fuel and maintenance costs Uncertainty related with exchange rate evolution and expected performance of the generation units Electricity Sector Scenario - Transition
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% GDP vs Demand exchange rate 1$/u$s about 3 $/u$s
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% GDP vs Demand
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Strong recovery – four years in a row (03/06) with GDP rates above 8% Fiscal Surplus due to the increase of economic activity and a high exchange rate Meaningful decrease of unemployment rate (from 20% to 11%) Gain of political power and support Economics
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Political => less confidence in markets; energy as an strategic sector => more state participation WEM Energy Prices => Maintain short term marginal cost system, with a cap price related with gas cost (less than 100 $/MWh (30 u$s/MWh). Differences recovered through uplift costs. WEM tariffs => average below cost; residential and small consumers subsidised; industrial consumers adjusted partially Electricity Sector – Scenario - Decisions
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Spot Price Evolution Definanciation of stabilization fund
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GDP - Strong recovery => demand increase Focus => security of supply Usage of thermal reserves => fuel supply (liquid) and maintenance (older plants) Short term => cover the increasing demand => extensive use of thermal plants – increase of liquid fuel consumption Additional problem => dramatic change in oil cost (from 30 to 60 U$S/bbl) and uncertainty Electricity Sector – Situation
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Fuel Consumption
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Thermal Dispatch – older plants After three years without dispatch, need to use older plants extensively => increase of maintenance requirements and fuel supply
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Marginal signals smoothed & uncertainty related with evolution of oil price Main problem => financing => fuel supply & maintenance Mechanisms adopted – Fuel Supply direct fuel oil supply (agreement with Venezuela +contracts) through CAMMESA. Centralised coordination of fuel supply anticipation of money to the generators Total consumption Fuel Oil => 2003 => 0,1 M ton; 2006 => 1,6 Mton => more than 60 shipment Electricity Sector Scenario
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Annual - Fuel Oil Consumption - Mton
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Mechanisms adopted – Maintenance Anticipation of money to the generators to finance major maintenances Generators require the amount of money related with the maintenance cost CAMMESA evaluates the cost – benefit relation (impact in operation costs of losing the group during a year) and informs to the Energy Secretariat In case the amount required is authorised, CAMMESA anticipates the money to Genco Genco gives it back in 12/24 months, beginning 1 year after the finishing of the maintenance Electricity Sector Scenario
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Short term => cover the increasing demand => ensure availability of thermal capacity and fuel; optimise the use of hydro plants to minimise the risk of supply new generation => an agreement was reached where the Treasure ensures payments of variable costs (including capacity) and 35 % of marginal rent; rest of it => derived to a Fund (FONINVEMEM) created to finance the installation of new generation. Recent tender=> Siemens will provide 2 x 800 MW CC plants (2008). Gencos will own shares of them. diversification => increase of fossil fuels costs make hydro/alternative generation more competitive, but require a kick off from national government. The completion of Atucha II (750 MW nuclear) and of the level of Yacyretá reservoir (+700 MW hydro) to be available by 2009/11 Demand side management, energy savings and emergency imports as resources to diminish supply risks. Expectations – Concerns
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¡Thanks for your attention! Seoul, November 2006 Doubts => jluchilo@cammesa.com.ar More info => www.cammesa.com.arjluchilo@cammesa.com.arwww.cammesa.com.ar Quality, Technology & Transparency
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