1. Assessing Aid for Trade in the Arab Region William Hynes OECD/DCD 12 December 2013

2. A BROAD AGENDA Trade development Trade policy & regulations Trade- related infrastructure Building productive capacity Transport & Storage Communications Energy Banking & Financial Services Business & Other Services Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Industry & Mining Tourism Other trade- related needs Trade- related adjustment

4. ASSESSING AID FOR TRADE

5. Diverse Range of Projects Morocco: National Program for Rural transport infrastructure (problems due to unforeseen costs and institutional coordination). Export consortium in textiles developed with UNIDO increased exports by 22% from 2005 to 2008 Tunisia: Customs and Logistics components of the export development program helped reduce cargo delays from 10 days in 2003-04 to 3.3 days in 2010

6. Diverse Aid for Trade Jordan: IPR regulations in 2001 fostered expansion of a fledgling generic drug industry. By 2010 16 pharmaceutical countries had sales of USD 500 million in 60 countries Yemen: Export Strategy launched in 2010 but difficult to execute in light of the security situation and limited funding UNESCWA: Training for investment treaties and analysing FDI

7. AfT PRIORITIES: PARTNER COUNTRIES

8. AID FOR TRADE COMMITMENTS

11. Aid for Trade: ESCWA Members 2006 to 2011, commitments

12. Aid for Trade to ESCWA Members, by donor commitments

13. Aid for Trade: ESCWA Members commitments

14. Aid for Trade: ESCWA Members, 2011 commitments

15. ASSESSING AID FOR TRADE Case stories and Self Assessment Questionnaires Empirical studies indicate aid for trade is broadly correlated with reductions in trade costs and trade expansion But evaluation practices need to be improved Impact Assessment Management for Trade and Development Results

16. EFFECTIVE AfT: PARTNER VIEWS

17. DONOR EVALUATIONS Most evaluations have concluded that the direct effects on export (growth) volumes are rather difficult to substantiate Improved understanding of the potential contribution trade can make to development, increased awareness and knowledge of trade policy issues (including WTO-related), and strengthened national dialogue (OECD, 2006) An OECD Meta evaluation of 162 AfT projects: “Trade impacts not considered,… rather mention of poverty reduction, gender…” (OECD, 2010)

18. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS Aid for Trade lowers trade costs and improves trade performance USD 1 in aid for trade increases exports from the poorest countries by USD 20 and USD 8 for richer developing countries. Findings are even higher for exports of parts and components. In well managed countries (proxied by “government effectiveness” indicator), aid for trade had strong impacts on exports…in poorly managed countries, the impacts were nil.

19. RESULTS-BASED MANAGEMENT 1.Identifying measurable objectives (results) 2.Selecting performance indicators 3.Setting targets for each indicator 4.Monitoring results 5.Reviewing and reporting results 6.Integrating evaluation to provide complementary performance information 7.Using performance information for accountability, learning and decision-making Strategic planning Performance measurement Results-based management

20. CONCLUSIONS Monitoring and Evaluation of aid for trade is improving – Arab countries are engaged Evidence suggests aid for trade can help But important that such work makes a contribution to learning (for partner countries) Arab countries are diverse – policy advice, support and knowledge sharing are required