1. 1 Tom Schuller Centre for Educational Research and Innovation OECD Jerzy Wiśniewski CERI Governing Board Presented on the Conference „Knowledge and Innovation in the Development of Economy: Driving Forces and Barriers” Kraków, 11 January 2007 OECD/CERI work on Future Perspectives

2. 2 Tom Schuller is Head of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI), OECD, Paris. Formerly Dean of the Faculty of Continuing Education and Professor of Lifelong Learning at Birkbeck, University of London from 1999 to 2003, he was also co-director of the Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Learning. He worked previously at the Universities of Edinburgh, Glasgow and Warwick, at the Institute for Community Studies and for four years at OECD in the 1970s. Recent publications include The Benefits of Learning: The Impact of Education on Health, Family Life and Social Capital (with John Preston et al, RoutledgeFalmer 2004), and Social Capital: Critical Perspectives (edited with Stephen Baron and John Field, OUP 2000).

3. 3 Economics Department Statistics Directorate Development Co-operation Directorate Trade Directorate For Financial Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs Directorate for Science Technology and Industry Directorate for Education Directorate for Employment Labour and Social Affairs Directorate for Food Agriculture and Fisheries Directorate for Public Management and Territorial Development COMMITTEES SECRETARIAT COUNCI L Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) Environment Directorate

4. 4 Centre for Education Research and Innovation IMHE/PEB Education and Training Policy Division Indicators and Analysis Division Directorate for Education

5. 5 CERI: main activities Carrying out studies of key educational issues, using internal staff and outside experts. Developing tools, indicators and frameworks for international analyses. Promoting research and policy debate Lengthening the time horizon of policy research thinking 25 staff, € 4.4 million

6. 6 Focus on the Future Schooling for Tomorrow University Futures New Millenium Learners Globalisation, Linguistic Competencies and Cultural Diversity ICT and E-learning/Open Educational Resources What Works: Adults with Low Basic Skills Learners and Learning

7. 7 Innovation in System Change Reviews of Educational Innovation Decision-making and Market Developments in Complex Lifelong Learning Systems Social Outcomes of Learning Time and Learning: Efficiency, Opportunity and Effectiveness The Education Horizon Regional Seminars Investments and Outcomes Horizontal Activities

8. 8 Why the Need for Futures Thinking in Education? Education decision-making increasingly complex – the need for new approaches Decision-making predominantly short-term despite education and learning being fundamental to long-term futures But prediction/forecasting is notoriously inaccurate TOGETHER underline need to compile existing tools and develop new ones for long-term thinking in policy and practice

9. 9 The OECD schooling scenarios 1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO “Bureaucratic “Bureaucratic School Systems Continue“ Scenario 2. DIVERSE, DYNAMIC SCHOOLS AFTER ROOT-AND- BRANCH REFORM (“Re-schooling”) Learning Organisations "Schools as Focused Learning Organisations“ Scenario Social Centres "Schools as Core Social Centres“ Scenario 3. PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVES TO SCHOOLS - SYSTEMS DISBAND OR DISINTEGRATE (“De-schooling”) Market Model “Radical Extension of the Market Model“ Scenario Networks "Learning Networks and the Network Society" Scenario Meltdown “Teacher Exodus and System Meltdown” Scenario

10. 10 Provisional set of scenarios International National MarketAdministration Open collaboration International research marketplace New public management National interest promotion

11. 11 International policy research: functions/types  Generating rankings/tables  Benchmarking  Developing/clarifying concepts  Analysing trends, issues, innovations  Identifying and disseminating good practice  Evaluating policy impact  Agenda-setting

12. 12 CERI R&D reviews: General conclusions : r Low levels of investment r Low capacity r Weak research/policy/practice links Recommendations: r Balancing the research portfolio r Accumulation: building a knowledge base r Dissemination r Capacity-building

13. 13 Brokerage Examples: England: EPPI Centre/NERF US: What Works Clearinghouse NZ:Iterative Best Evidence Synthesis Canada:Centre for Knowledge Mobilisation Issues/functions: Dissemination: publications, internet, presentations Promoting interactivity Legitimating rigour/quality Developing cooperation/trust

14. 14 The challenges  Capacity-building, inside and outside research community  Combining different forms of evidence  Developing accountabilities : bureaucratic, market, professional  Defining outcomes and their measurement  A new enlightenment paradigm?

15. 15 Conclusions  the knowledge base for knowledge-based economies is thin – irony  growing interest in educational research capacity as a policy but also a research issue  key parameters within which debate can take place on the adequacy of this capacity  This should involve a closer understanding of the way research systems work, and the extent to which the articulated or implicit goals of the system are achieved  This is quite a challenge, not just in itself but it is difficult for members of the educational research community to engage in this with a reasonable degree of objectivity.  But that should be no reason for not trying.