1. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coastal, Regional & Estuarine Modeling: NOS Operational Forecast Systems and NCEP-NOS Collaboration. Frank Aikman III Coast Survey Development Laboratory National Ocean Service NCEP Ocean Modeling Workshop January 14-15, 2008

2. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Outline The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Modeling Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Modeling

3. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory NOS Marine Modeling Requirements  Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability  Emergency response HAZMAT HAZMAT Search & Rescue Search & Rescue Homeland Security Homeland Security  For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications Marine geospatial applications Salinity SST

4. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

5. Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) Operational since August 2001

6. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory RIVER INPUTS Chesapeake Bay NOS CBOFS Model Weather Forecast Model Hi-res Mesoscale Weather Forecast Model NAM (WRF) NOS East Coast Data Assimilation Model Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service, NOAA Inputs to Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System CO-OPS PORTS

7. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Operational System Management Operational Coastal, Regional and Estuarine Models Require Real-Time Observations and Forecasts of: Operational Coastal, Regional and Estuarine Models Require Real-Time Observations and Forecasts of: Atmospheric Forcing Atmospheric Forcing Open Ocean and Coastal Boundary Conditions Open Ocean and Coastal Boundary Conditions Riverine Fresh Water Inputs Riverine Fresh Water Inputs

8. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Atmospheric Forcing Nowcasts: Local Analysis & Interpolation Lake Erie Surface Wind Analysis Forecasts: NWS/NCEP operational models NAM (WRF) NAM (WRF) Global Forecast System (GFS) Global Forecast System (GFS) RUC RUC NDFD next NDFD next

9. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coastal Boundary Conditions NWS Operational NWS Operational Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) NOS Experimental NOS Experimental East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA) East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA) NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM)

10. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory RTOFS (HYCOM Model) subtidal water level RMS errors for March 2006 at East (top) and Gulf Coast (bottom) gauge locations (dashed line); solid line is for the Extratropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model.

11. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory NCEP/CSDL Coupled Storm Surge Project MHW Shoreline 15 m Topographic Contour Beaufort Inlet 200K node high resolution unstructured triangular mesh with elevation relative to NAVD 88

12. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Consists of middleware to manage workflow OBJECTIVE: More efficient R&D, O&M PURPOSE: Simplify Data Handling & Maintenance Simplify Data Handling & Maintenance Provide a Single “Standard” System for all Locations Provide a Single “Standard” System for all Locations Community: Share Skill Assessment Metrics and Tools Community: Share Skill Assessment Metrics and Tools Provide a Single NOS Model Image to Users (NetCDF) Provide a Single NOS Model Image to Users (NetCDF) Various Models Are Tested & Evaluated (MEE) Various Models Are Tested & Evaluated (MEE) ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, QUODDY, ROMS, SELFE ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, QUODDY, ROMS, SELFE NOS is moving ahead with the Community ROMS for OFS NOS is moving ahead with the Community ROMS for OFS Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions

13. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory REAL-TIME DATA INGEST QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7 NOS OPERATIONAL MODELS FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp, currents, & salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and digital pt. & gridded data) FOR USERS Standardized for any model at any location QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7 NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework * * Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions Individual Model Systems

14. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Models, products, assessment, documentation will be as uniform as possible: Models, products, assessment, documentation will be as uniform as possible: NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems, NOAA Tech Rep NOS CO-OPS 39, May 2003 NOS Standards for Evaluating Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems, NOAA Tech Rep NOS CS 17, October 2003 Strategic and Implementation Plan for the National Operational Coastal Modeling Program FY2004-2010, NOAA/NOS OCS and CO-OPS, 2004 IMPLEMENTATION OF MODEL SKILL ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE FOR WATER LEVEL AND CURRENT IN TIDAL REGIONS, NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 24, March 2006 NOS Skill Assessment Criteria (Metrics) NOS Skill Assessment Criteria (Metrics) VariableWater LevelCurrents VariableWater LevelCurrents CF15 cm (>0.9) 26 cm/s (>0.9) POF/NOF30 cm (<0.01)52 cm/s (<0.01) Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Standards & Procedures

15. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Issue - How does CSDL objectively evaluate existing and emerging modeling technologies to select appropriate community models to support requirements for models to address navigational, inundation, and ecological issues? Criteria - The selection process must be based on quantitative measures of accuracy, adaptability, portability and sustained supportability. Approach - Establish a series of Modeling Evaluation Environments (MEE) ●Model Configuration Data – Shorelines, Bathymetries ●Model Execution Data – Model initialization, specification of environmental conditions ●Model Skill Assessment Metrics and Observation Initial Region ●Delaware Bay Models ● Six community models ● 2-D and 3-D ● Structured (orthogonal grids) and unstructured (highly variable triangular elements) Model Evaluation Environment

16. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Challenges for NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Transition to the NOAA High Performance Computing Environment (e.g. NCEP/CCS) Transition from Individual Port Models to a Regional Modeling Approach Coupled Systems Ecosystem Forecasting

17. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory NOS Transition of OFS to the NOAA High Performance Computing Environment at NCEP OBJECTIVE: More efficient R&D, O&M PROCESS (FY08-09): Establish a version of *COMF at NCEP Establish a version of *COMF at NCEP Transition 5 Great Lake Models (GLOFS) Transition 5 Great Lake Models (GLOFS) Set up Ches. Bay (CBOFSv2) at NCEP (ROMS) Set up Ches. Bay (CBOFSv2) at NCEP (ROMS) Test/evaluate Delaware and Tampa Bay OFS at NCEP (ROMS) Test/evaluate Delaware and Tampa Bay OFS at NCEP (ROMS) *Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions

18. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Individual Port Model Systems Transition to a Regional Modeling Approach Regional Model Systems Gulf of MaineNY Bight Ches/Del Louisiana

19. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Coupled Systems Challenges  Scales: Space: Riverine-Estuarine-Coastal-Basin-Global Time: From Minutes to Synoptic to Seasonal to Interannual to Decadal to Long-Term Climate  Types: Hydrodynamic-Wave Hydrodynamic-Sediment Transport  Physical-Ecological: Whole Ecosystem Biogeochemical Water quality NPZHabitatPelagic Fish recruitment Single Species Multiple Species Food Web/Energy Budget

20. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Example Ecological Applications of Hydrodynamic Models Noxious Biota Noxious Biota Sea Nettle Probabilities Sea Nettle Probabilities Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Red Tide in Gulf of Mexico Red Tide in Gulf of Mexico Hazardous Materials Dispersion (HAZMAT) Hazardous Materials Dispersion (HAZMAT) Oil/Chemical Spills Oil/Chemical Spills Salinity SST Likelihood of Chrysaora

21. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Development of a West Florida Shelf 3D Prediction System Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model (for HABs) Gulf of Mexico West Florida Shelf Tampa Bay Charlotte Harbor ● GOM model nodes

22. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory In Summary The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework The Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Modeling Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Modeling