1. Relapse Back to Smoking: The Core Role of the Tobacco Withdrawal Syndrome WITH THOMAS PIASECKI MICHAEL FIORE

2. SMOKING IS BAD ABOUT 24% OF ADULT AMERICANS SMOKE A LEADING PREVENTABLE CAUSE OF MORTALITY & MORBIDITY ACCOUNTS FOR 430,000+ DEATHS/YEAR IN THE US ALONE ON AVERAGE SMOKERS LOSE 14 YEARS OF LIFE

3. RELAPSE: GORDIAN KNOT SMOKERS ARE MOTIVATED TO QUIT ABOUT HALF OF SMOKERS TRY TO QUIT EACH YEAR ONLY ABOUT 5% ARE SUCCESSFUL MOST WHO BECOME ABSTINENT, EVENTUALLY RELAPSE WHAT CAUSES OR LEADS UP TO RELAPSE BACK TO SMOKING?

4. TRADITIONAL ACCOUNT WITHDRAWAL SYMPTOMS ABSTINENCE FROM TOBACCO CAUSES STRONG INCREASES IN WITHDRAWAL SYMPTOMS DEPRESSION, ANXIETY, IRRITABILITY, URGES, INABILITY TO CONCENTRATE THE SMOKER IS MOTIVATED TO USE TOBACCO TO MEDICATE THESE SYMPTOMS

5. BUT, ACCORDING TO SOME RESEARCH … HOWEVER, MUCH RESEARCH OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS CASTS DOUBT ON A WITHDRAWAL ACCOUNT “IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE RESEARCH TO DATE DOES NOT APPEAR TO STRONGLY IMPLICATE NICOTINE WITHDRAWAL IN ADVERSELY AFFECTING SMOKING CESSATION OR MAINTENANCE OF ABSTINENCE.” (PATTON & MARTIN, 1996)

6. BUT, SMOKERS TELL US… 1.“IT HAS BEEN 2 MONTHS SINCE I QUIT AND THE URGES ARE WORSE THAN EVER” 2.“QUITTING SMOKING HAS CHANGED MY PERSONALITY…I AM ALWAYS CRABBY AND HAVE BEEN EVER SINCE I QUIT.” 3.“MY WITHDRAWAL WENT AWAY AFTER 3 WEEKS, AND NOW IT IS BACK.” FOR YEARS WE TOLD THE SMOKER THAT THESE REPORTS CANNOT BE CORRECT SINCE WITHDRAWAL GOES AWAY IN TWO-THREE WEEKS!

8. Withdrawal Heterogeneity: SMOKERS ARE RIGHT! In -- acute drug removal. At the level of the individual, idiosyncracies may be observed Which day do you pick for measuring withdrawal?

9. IMPOSING SIMPLE MEASUREMENT MODELS ON A COMPLEX PHENOMENON SIMPLISTIC MEASUREMENT IS AT HEART OF SCIENCE’S FAILURE WITHDRAWAL HAS BEEN ASSUMED TO BE A STEREOTYPIC PHYSIOLOGIC REACTION TO ABSTINENCE THAT PRODUCES A PROTOTYPIC SYMPTOM WAVEFORM ACROSS TIME

10. MEASUREMENT STRATEGY 55 DAYS OF DAILY POST-CESSATION WITHDRAWAL RATINGS SUBMITTED TO DYNAMIC CLUSTER ANALYSES CLUSTERED DISTINCT GROUPS OF INDIVIDUALS WHOSE PATTERNS OF SYMPTOMS WERE SIMILAR OVER TIME

11. 0102030405060 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 WITHDRAWAL SEVERITY Cluster I (N=71) Cluster II ( N=31) Cluster III (N=122) DAY From: Piasecki, Fiore & Baker, 1998; Study 2

12. RESULTS ATYPICAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH 2-4 TIMES HIGHER RISK OF RELAPSE NO OTHER VARIABLE PREDICTS RELAPSE AS WELL WOMEN & PREVIOUSLY DEPRESSED MORE LIKELY TO HAVE SUSTAINED OR WORSENING WITHDRAWAL

13. ADDITIONAL MEASUREMENT MODEL PROFILES CAN ALSO BE CAPTURED BY 3 COMPONENTS YIELDED BY GROWTH CURVE MODELING elevation over time shape/trajectory volatility/scatter WRINGING INFORMATION FROM PROFILES

15. Estimated WD Score

16. WHAT DOES GROWTH CURVE MODELING TELLS US? WITHDRAWAL DRAMATICALLY INCREASES ALL 3 DIMENSIONS OF WITHDRAWAL SYMPTOMS, E.G., 2-3 TIMES THE EMOTIONAL VOLATILITY VS. PRE- CESSATION (WOMEN & PREVIOUSLY DEPRESSED) ALL 3 DIMENSIONS ARE HIGHLY PREDICTIVE OF RELAPSE SMOKERS SHOULD NOT BE TOLD THAT WITHDRAWAL WILL GET BETTER IN 2 WEEKS!

17. IMPLICATIONS & GOALS WE ARE TRACKING WITHDRAWAL & INTERVENING BEFORE RELAPSE: JUST IN TIME TREATMENT IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC GENES THAT ASSOCIATED WITH WITHDRAWAL DIMENSIONS DEVELOPING INTERVENTIONS DESIGNED TO ADDRESS ALL 3 COMPONENTS OF WITHDRAWAL