1. Assessing Agriculture and Livestock Water Demand in 2025/50: Food Habits, Income Growth and Spatial Pattern
O. P. Singh

2. Introduction…
Irrigated crop production had made significant contribution to total foodgrain production and provided sufficient buffer-stock in the country (Evenson et al., 1999; Kumar, 2003)
~ 20% increase is attributed to expansion of net cropped area and 80% by crop yield (Bhalla et al., 1999)
Globally, there are two major water-dependent interests, which are in conflict today i.e. “food security” and “ecological security” (Postel, 1996; Falkenmark, 2004)
Researchers in past had made food demand projections for India for 2020 (Kumar, 1998; Rosegrant et al., 1995; Bhalla et al., 1999; Bansil, 1999)

3. Introduction
Population growth in rural and urban area will be the key determinant of growth in demand for food in the country in coming decades (Dyson and Hanchate, 2000)
Higher per capita incomes may increase the demand for non-cereal based food items i.e. fruits, vegetables milk, eggs, fish and meat
Long term NSSO’s data on food consumption pattern suggests that there has been decline in per capita cereal consumption since early 1970s (Bansil, 1999; Rao, 1999; Kumar, 1998; Kumar and Mathur, 1997; Radhakrishna and Ravi, 1992)
Present study is an attempt to assess the state-wise demand of food items and irrigation water for 2025/2050

4. Objectives
To estimate the state-wise current level of food consumption pattern and estimate it for 2025/2050
To estimate the state-wise livestock feed demand in 2025/2050
To estimate the state-wise seed/waste and other uses in 2025/2050
To estimate the state-wise irrigation water requirement to meet the food demand in 2025/2050

5. Major Indian States Covered under Study
Punjab
Haryana
Rajasthan UP
Assam
Bihar
Gujarat MP
W. Bengal
Orissa
Maharashtra AP
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Kerala

6. Assumptions… Self-sufficiency in food demand in 2025/2050
All food demand will be meet from irrigated crop production
Post harvest losses - 1.1%, 3.0%, 4.6% and 2.2% for rice, wheat, coarse grains and pulses respectively (Kumar, 1998)
Post harvest losses - 20% of fruit and vegetable production
1.2 kg of cereal based feed required for production of one kg of meet, eggs and 0.12 kg for milk (Bhalla et al. 1999)
One banana, orange, coconut and lemon is equal to 100 grams, 100 grams, 150 grams and 30 grams respectively
Average weight of an egg is equal to the 0.05 kg

7. Assumptions Paddy contains about 65% rice
Sugarcane contain about 10% sugar
Oilseeds contains about 40% oil
CROPWAT model used for the estimation of crop water requirement
~ 10% of the total crop water requirement will be conveyance losses
Irrigation water requirement for paddy is ~ m3/ha (Michael, 2001)

8. Methodological Framework
Total Agricultural Water Requirement
Increase in area under fish cultivation
Increase in water use for fish farming
Increase in rainfed cultivation
Over use of irrigation water for crop Production
Crop Water Requirement
Increase in green fodder demand
Food Demand (Cereals, pulses, oilseed, milk, meat, fish, egg, oil, vegetables, fruits and Sugar)
Post harvest losses
Per capita food consumption
Increase/decrease in crop based food demand
Increase in cereal based animal feed demand
Change in milk production system
Growth in rural/ urban population
Increase in livestock population
Increase in animal based food demand
Increase in fish/ meat/egg demand
Change in food consumption pattern
Growth in per capita income

9. Drivers of Food Demand Population growth Growth in per capita income
Rate of urbanization
Growth in per capita income
Food consumption pattern
Level of expenditure on food and non-food items
Expenditure pattern on food items
Change in livestock feeding pattern
Indigenous animal to crossbred animals, free grazing to stall feeding
Change in post harvest losses in foodgrains, fruits and vegetables
Import of cereal based feed for animal and poultry

10. Current Food Consumption and Future Demand Projection

11. Future Food Demand Projection under different Scenarios
Scenario–I (well fed India): as recommended by ICMR
Scenario–II (As level of food consumption):
Cereal consumption pattern
As level of food consumption
Scenario–III (expenditure pattern on food items): growth in expenditure pattern on food items and their relative price

12. Future Food Demand Projections
Human food demand – 2025/2050
Cereal demand for animal feed
Change in livestock feed requirement
Import of animal based product
Shift from free grazing to stall feed system
Post harvest losses in foodgrains, vegetables and fruits
Aggregate food demand under different scenarios

13. Assessment of Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Production (Demand Driven Approach)

14. Agricultural Water Requirement
Water requirement for food production
Irrigation water requirement for animal product
Aggregate irrigation water requirement

15. Conclusions and Policy Implications…
Food demand projections are highly depends on the population growth, urbanisation, per capita income, test and preferences
Growth of per capita income along with shifts in consumption patterns leads demand of livestock based products
Increase in the demand of milk, meat, egg and fish would further increase the demand for cereal based feed and finally irrigation water demand
Increase in demand of fish, farmers may convert some farm land into fish pond and may divert irrigation water for fish farming leads to increase agricultural water requirement (Haryana, UP)

16. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Increase in demand of milk and milk products, dairy farmers may shift from free grazing to stall feeding system of milk production and this would increase demand of irrigation water for green fodder production
It is required to produce less water intensive milk by using water efficient green fodder with high yielding variety of cattle
by replacing a part of the low yielding bovine population with high milk yielding crossbred animals
India would import virtual water in form of cattle feed from the international market to meet the demand of cereal based feed requirement
India would import virtual water in the form of milk and milk products from the global market
Post harvested losses of fruits and vegetables are very high. It is required to reduce the post harvest losses by introduction of appropriate storage technology

17. Thank you

18. State-wise Projected Population
Name of the Major States
Population (Million)
Contribution to India’s total (%)
2001
2025
2050
Andhra Pradesh
75.73
88.70
86.96
7.72
6.72
5.67
Assam
26.64
34.41
37.31
2.72
2.61
2.43
Bihar*
109.79
156.37
176.44
11.20
11.85
11.51
Gujarat
50.60
62.52
64.22
5.16
4.74
4.19
Haryana
21.08
26.78
28.05
2.15
2.03
1.83
Karnataka
52.73
64.37
64.72
5.38
4.88
4.22
Kerala
31.84
36.82
35.91
3.25
2.79
2.34
Maharashtra
96.75
116.26
117.14
9.87
8.81
7.64
Madhya Pradesh*
80.89
116.04
131.81
8.25
8.80
8.60
Orissa
36.71
43.84
43.73
3.74
3.32
2.85
Punjab
24.29
28.65
28.09
2.48
2.17
Rajasthan
56.51
85.88
113.90
5.76
6.51
7.43
Tamil Nadu
62.11
70.53
67.76
6.34
5.35
4.42
Uttar Pradesh*
174.53
291.91
440.83
17.80
22.13
28.77
West Bengal
80.22
96.22
95.46
8.18
7.29
6.23
India
980.42
100.00

19. State-wise Projected Urban and Rural Population
Name of the major State
Total Population (million)
Urban Population (%)
Rural Population (%)
2001
2025
2050
Andhra Pradesh
75.728
88.701
86.960
27.08
33.74
38.14
72.92
66.26
61.86
Assam
26.638
34.413
37.308
12.72
19.38
23.78
87.28
80.62
76.22
Bihar
13.36
20.02
24.42
86.64
79.98
75.58
Gujarat
50.597
62.521
64.215
37.35
44.01
48.41
62.65
55.99
51.59
Haryana
21.083
26.784
28.049
29.00
35.66
40.06
71.00
64.34
59.94
Karnataka
52.734
64.369
64.721
33.98
40.64
45.04
66.02
59.36
54.96
Kerala
31.839
36.823
35.906
25.97
32.63
37.03
74.03
67.37
62.97
Madhya Pradesh
96.752
24.98
31.64
36.04
75.02
68.36
63.96
Maharashtra
80.889
42.40
49.06
53.46
57.60
50.94
46.54
Orissa
36.707
43.839
43.733
14.97
21.63
26.03
85.03
78.37
73.97
Punjab
24.289
28.648
28.091
33.95
40.61
45.01
66.05
59.39
54.99
Rajasthan
56.507
85.884
23.38
30.04
34.44
76.62
69.96
65.56
Tamil Nadu
62.111
70.526
67.761
43.86
50.52
54.92
56.14
49.48
45.08
Uttar Pradesh
21.02
27.68
32.08
78.98
72.32
67.92
West Bengal
80.221
96.221
95.463
28.03
34.69
39.09
71.97
65.31
60.91
India Total
27.78
38.84
72.22
61.16

20. Growth of Net State Domestic Product (Per cent/Capita/Annum)
Compound growth rate during to (constant price)

21. Expenditure on Food and Non-food Items, India

22. Historical Growth of Monthly Per Capita Consumer Expenditure on Food Items, India

23. Recommended Dietary Allowance (Gram/capita/day)
Food groups
Recommended Dietary Allowance (gram)
Cereals
460
Fish 30
Pulses 40
Meat and Poultry
Green leafy vegetables 50
Milk
150
Other vegetable 60
Fruits
Roots & Tubers
Sugar & Jaggery
Fat and Oils 20
Source: Rao et al. (2003:27)

24. Cereal Consumption Pattern in Rural and Urban Area
Rural area
Cereal: -1.45%
Rice: -0.63%
Wheat: -0.94%
Jowar: -8.14%
Bajra: -3.76%
Urban
Cereal: -0.95%
Rice: -0.82%
Wheat: -0.72%
Jowar: -4.08%
Source: NSSO

25. Decline in cereal consumption in 1993-94 and 2003 (kg/capita)
Declining in total cereal consumption
Name of the Major States
Rural Area
1.0 to 10.0
Uttar Pradesh (2.80), Assam (3.51), Kerala (4.99), Maharashtra (7.06), Bihar (7.30) and Punjab (7.30)
11.0 to 20.0
All India (12.90), Gujarat (13.75), Andhra Pradesh (14.36), Orissa (15.46), Tamil Nadu (17.89), and West Bengal (18.62)
21.0 to 30.0
Madhya Pradesh (24.46), Rajasthan (24.83), & Karnataka(26.04)
31.0 and above
Haryana (33.35)
Urban Area
1.0 to 10.00
Assam (4.50), Uttar Pradesh (5.11), Orissa (7.18) Kerala (8.40), All India (8.52), Maharashtra (8.88), Andhra Pradesh (9.13), and Gujarat (9.98)
Tamil Nadu (10.22), Madhya Pradesh (13.51), Rajasthan (14.60), Karnataka (14.73), Haryana (15.33), and West Bengal (15.70)
Positive Growth
Bihar (0.61), and Punjab (1.58)

26. Food Consumption in Rural and Urban India, (kg/capita/day)
Food Items
Rural
Urban
Paddy
0.225
0.174
Wheat
0.150
0.159
Total cereals
0.424
0.347
Pulses and pulse product
0.028
0.233
Milk and milk product*
0.146
Total edible oils
0.017
0.024
Total fish, meat and Egg
0.014
0.019
Total vegetables
0.179
0.197
Total fruits
0.018
0.037
Total sugar
0.033
*: All milk products are converted into liquid milk
Source: based on data provided in NSSO (2001)

27. Food Demand Projections for 2025 and 2051, India (Million Tonnes)
Scenarios
Cereals
Pulses
Milk
Oil & Fat
Meat, fish & Eggs
Vegetables
Fruits
Sugar & Jaggery
Rice
Wheat
Total
2025
Scenario – I
128.47
83.58
221.51
19.25
72.23
9.64
28.84
77.05
14.42
Scenario – II
95.70
81.05
194.48
14.03
83.54
8.46
6.75
90.07
11.12
13.89
Scenario – III
121.57
74.76
204.79
100.58
19.02
10.36
148.15
31.41
12.05
2050
142.98
103.76
257.29
22.36
83.91
11.19
33.56
89.49
16.78
104.19
102.67
226.09
16.64
101.21
9.95
7.5
106.56
13.4
16.54
186.28
122.28
326.84
12.87
157.07
40.89
19.21
287.59
184.19
13.88

28. (Current level of food Consumption (1999-2000))
Cereal Based Feed Requirement for Animal Based Products, India (Million Tonnes)
Year
Scenario – 1
(Well Fed India)
Scenario – 2
(Current level of food Consumption ( ))
Scenario – 3
(Expenditure Based)
Milk
Meat, Egg & Fish
Total
2025
8.67
34.67
43.34
10.02
8.12
18.14
12.07
12.43
24.50
2050
10.07
40.27
50.34
12.15
9.00
21.15
18.85
23.05
41.90
1.2 kg cereal requirement for production of meat and eggs and fish kg of cereal based feed requirement for milk production (Bhalla et al. 1999)

29. Post harvest losses of cereals, pulses, vegetables and fruits, India (million tonnes)
Scenario
Cereals
Pulses
Vegetables
Fruits
2025
Scenario – I
4.36
0.43
15.41
2.88
Scenario – 2
4.30
0.33
18.01
2.22
Scenario – 3
4.01
0.25
29.63
6.28
2050
5.17
0.49
17.90
3.36
5.11
0.39
21.31
2.68
6.60
0.28
57.52
36.84
1.1% for rice, 3.0% for wheat, 4.6% for coarse cereal, 2.2% for pulses, and 20% for fruits and vegetables (Kumar, 1998)

30. Aggregate Projected Food Demand under different Scenarios, India (million tonnes)
Total Cereals
Pulses
Milk
Edible Oils
Meat, fish & Eggs
Vegetables
Fruits
Sugar & Jaggery
2025
Scenario - I
269.21
19.68
72.23
9.64
28.84
92.46
17.30
14.42
Scenario - II
216.92
14.36
83.54
8.46
6.75
108.08
13.34
13.89
Scenario - III
233.30
11.37
100.58
19.02
10.36
177.78
37.69
12.05
2050
312.80
22.85
83.91
11.19
33.56
107.39
20.14
16.78
252.35
17.03
101.21
9.95
7.50
127.87
16.08
16.54
375.34
13.15
157.07
40.89
19.21
345.11
221.03
13.88

31. Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Production (BCM)
Scenario
Rice
Wheat
Others
Total cereals
Pulses
Edible Oils
Sugar
2025
Scenario – I
661.52
147.02
30.41
838.94
104.83
95.45
68.86
Scenario – II
492.23
134.74
50.82
677.79
77.20
83.47
67.21
Scenario – III
619.88
133.55
30.01
783.44
62.70
185.40
62.53
2050
750.67
173.20
34.49
958.35
117.50
110.94
77.14
546.31
163.25
55.11
764.66
87.87
98.18
77.18
944.36
227.72
62.34
72.86
395.35
73.44

32. Irrigation Water Requirement for Animal Based Product, India (BCM)
Irrigation Water Requirement for Milk Production
Year
Milk production based on Free Grazing
Milk production based on Stall Feeding
(2.05 m3/L)
Scenario – I
Scenario – II
Scenario – III
2025
19.93
24.82
30.33
147.78
170.93
205.80
2050
22.40
29.22
47.53
171.66
207.09
321.37
Irrigation Water Requirement for Meat, Fish and Egg Production
Year
Scenario–I
Scenario–II
Scenario–III
2025
79.73
20.09
29.03
2050
89.63
21.55
50.46

33. (Current level of Consumption, 99-00)
Irrigation Water Requirement for Production of Food Items under Different Scenarios in 2025 and 2050 (BCM)
Food Items
2025
2050
Scenario–I
(Well fed India)
Scenario–II
(Current level of Consumption, 99-00)
Scenario–III
(Expenditure based)
Rice
661.52
492.23
619.88
750.67
546.31
944.36
Wheat
147.02
134.74
133.55
173.20
163.25
227.72
Millets
30.41
50.82
30.01
34.49
55.11
62.34
Total Cereals
838.94
677.79
783.44
958.35
764.66
Total Pulses
104.83
77.20
62.70
117.50
87.87
72.86
Total Oilseeds
95.45
83.47
185.40
110.94
98.18
395.35
Sugar
68.86
67.21
62.53
77.14
77.18
73.44
Milk
a. Free Grazing
19.93
24.82
30.33
22.40
29.22
47.53
b. Stall Feeding
147.78
170.93
205.09
171.66
207.09
321.37
Meat, Fish & Eggs
79.73
20.09
29.03
89.63
21.55
50.46

34. State-wise food consumption patter in rural India, 1999-2000 (kg/capita/day)
Name of the Major States
Cereals
Total Pulses
Milk & Milk Product
Edible Oils
Egg, Meat & Fish
Vegetable
Fruits & Nuts
Sugar
Rice
Wheat
Total
Andhra Pradesh
0.393
0.006
0.422
0.024
0.098
0.015
0.018
0.133
0.016
Assam
0.398
0.019
0.421
0.017
0.038
0.012
0.027
0.193
0.009
Bihar
0.263
0.174
0.458
0.026
0.091
0.013
0.008
0.230
0.010
Gujarat
0.069
0.120
0.340
0.031
0.248
0.003
0.159
0.039
Haryana
0.033
0.331
0.379
0.034
0.563
0.001
0.176
0.022
0.067
Karnataka
0.179
0.384
0.124
0.029
Kerala
0.296
0.032
0.330
0.099
0.014
0.071
0.123
0.044
0.028
Madhya Pradesh
0.181
0.207
0.431
0.130
0.004
0.151
Maharashtra
0.104
0.116
0.377
0.095
0.020
0.112
0.036
Orissa
0.472
0.503
0.023
0.201
Punjab
0.318
0.353
0.035
0.451
0.216
0.068
Rajasthan
0.007
0.326
0.473
0.387
Tamil Nadu
0.327
0.011
0.355
0.080
0.129
Uttar Pradesh
0.143
0.297
0.454
0.164
0.213
West Bengal
0.415
0.453
0.030
0.264
India Total
0.225
0.150
0.424
0.146

35. State-wise food consumption patter in urban India, 1999-2000 (kg/capita/day)
Name of the Major States
Cereals
Total Pulses
Milk & Milk Product
Edible Oils
Egg, Meat & Fish
Vegetable
Fruits & Nuts
Sugar
Rice
Wheat
Total
Andhra Pradesh
0.329
0.027
0.365
0.029
0.164
0.020
0.017
0.148
0.036
0.022
Assam
0.364
0.043
0.409
0.025
0.189
0.018
0.039
0.208
0.021
Bihar
0.219
0.201
0.423
0.031
0.128
0.013
0.234
0.023
Gujarat
0.067
0.180
0.283
0.034
0.363
0.035
0.006
0.187
Haryana
0.269
0.312
0.417
0.004
0.190
0.050
Karnataka
0.207
0.055
0.340
0.200
0.019
0.147
0.037
0.032
Kerala
0.266
0.041
0.308
0.125
0.015
0.079
0.110
0.052
Madhya Pradesh
0.114
0.246
0.370
0.033
0.191
0.008
0.202
Maharashtra
0.160
0.188
0.028
0.161
0.038
Orissa
0.406
0.075
0.484
0.014
0.250
Punjab
0.307
0.400
0.005
0.222
0.054
Rajasthan
0.349
0.385
0.447
0.170
Tamil Nadu
0.289
0.322
0.024
0.168
0.040
Uttar Pradesh
0.095
0.262
0.360
0.242
0.011
West Bengal
0.279
0.093
0.372
0.158
0.045
0.288
India Total
0.174
0.159
0.347
0.233
0.197