1. Growth, Demography, Carrying Capacity
HUMAN POPULATION
Growth, Demography, Carrying Capacity

2. Population Growth
Natural Rate (NR) = birth rate (br) – death rate (dr)
PopulationChange
= (br/ Immigration) – (dr/ emigration)
Natural rate of population change
= br-dr/1000 x OR br-dr/10
Crude birth rate = number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year.
Crude death rate – number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year.

3. Human Population Growth Rate (2008)

4. World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World 21 9
All developed
countries 11 10
All developing
countries 24 8
Developing
countries
(w/o China) 27 9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

5. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa 38 14
Latin
America 22
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 6
Asia 20 7
Oceania 18 7
United
States 14 8
North
America 14 8
Europe 10 12

7. Population Growth
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – estimate of the average number of children a female will have during reproductive years (15-45).
Global TFR in 2004 = 2.8 children per woman.
Developing Countries TFR = 3.1, some African countries have a TFR of 6!
Developed Nations are steady with a TFR of 1.6
Not until Developing Nations reach a TFR of 2.1 will world populations stabilize!
GOAL = Replacement Level Fertility (RLF)

8. Global Total Fertility Rates

9. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World
5 children per woman
2.8
Developed
countries
2.5
1.6
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing
countries
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.1
Latin
America
5.9
2.6
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
2.1
North
America
3.5
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2004

10. Why Are TFR’s So High In Africa?
No government supported family planning.
Low literacy rate among woman.
Few economic roles for woman.
Woman’s rights…are there any?
Poor health care for mothers/mothers-to-be.
AIDS rampant.
Need many children for labor.
High infant mortality due to poor quality of life.
Abortions, legal or safe?

11. Growing Cities

12. How Have Fertility Rates Changed in the USA?
Population in 1900 – 76 million
Population in 2004 = 294 million
1957 (peak baby boom) – TFR = 3.7
Since 1972 – USA at or below replacement level fertility (RLF)
USA population is growing faster than any other developed nation, why?

13. Baby Boom Years 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom
( )
Replacement
level
1.0
0.5
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year

14. Population Increase in the USA
Br>dr because standard of living is high.
Baby-boomers now finally approaching post-reproductive age!
Increase in unwed mothers (teenagers mostly, many in inner-city areas).
Inadequate family planning.
Ethnic group increases from immigration from developing nations who believe in the large family unit.
Immigration (legal and illegal) = 71% of the population increase in the USA!

15. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male
Female
Male
Female
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
Pre-reproductive
Reproductive
Post-reproductive
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

16. Factors That Affect Birth/Fertility Rates
Average level of education and affluence;
Importance of children in the labor force;
Cost of raising and educating children;
Education and employment opportunities for woman;
Infant mortality rates related to access to health care and medicine;
Availability of legal abortions.
Access to contraceptives and family planning education.

17. Factors That Lower Death Rates
Increased distribution and supply of food resources;
Higher living standards;
Better nutrition (food/vitamins);
Improvements in medical and public health technology;
Improvements in sanitation and personal hygiene;
Safer water supplies.
NOTE: Infant mortality rate (IMR) is a good indicator of quality of life because it reflects the general level of nutrition and health care for a geographic region.

18. Global Infant Mortality Rates

19. Why Are TFR’s Higher In Developing Countries?
Infant mortality rate is high;
Need a few children to help farm, earn an income, take care of parents as they age;
Ignorance regarding sexual education (also accounts for high incidence of AIDS especially in African Nations);
No access to contraceptives or other birth control;
Socially acceptable to have many children and multiple sexual partners at an early age(12-15).
NOTE: Average age for marriage in a developing nation is 15!
Average age for marriage in a developed country is 25!

20. “Young Mothers”

21. Survivorship Curves
Survivorship curves indicate life expectancies for organisms. This is a way to represent the age structure of the population.
The curve represents the number of survivors of each age group for a particular species.

22. Late Loss Curves
Late loss curves are common to k-strategists. They produce few young and care for them. This reduces infant and juvenile mortality.
Examples = humans, elephants, gorilla, etc..

23. Percentage surviving (log scale)
Figure 9-11 Page 171
Late loss
100
Constant loss 10
Percentage surviving (log scale) 1
Early loss
Age

24. Early Loss Curve
Early loss curves are common to r-strategists. They produce many young who receive no parental care. This allows compensates for high infant/juvenile mortality.
Once the young reach a critical age, there is high survivorship.
Examples = annual plants, bony fish, amphibians, etc…

25. Percentage surviving (log scale)
Figure 9-11 Page 171
Late loss
100
Constant loss 10
Percentage surviving (log scale) 1
Early loss
Age

26. Constant Loss Curve
An intermediate number of young with limited parental care are common to constant loss curves.
They experience a fairly constant rate of mortality in ALL age classes, so there is a steady decline in survivors.
Examples = lizards, songbirds, and small mammals.

27. Percentage surviving (log scale)
Figure 9-11 Page 171
Late loss
100
Constant loss 10
Percentage surviving (log scale) 1
Early loss
Age

28. Age Structure Diagrams
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages

29. © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male
Female
Male
Female
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 0-14
Ages 15-44
Ages
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

30. Population
(2004)
United States (highly developed)
294 million
179 million
Brazil (moderately developed)
137 million
Nigeria (less developed)
Population
projected
(2025)
349 million
211 million
206 million
Infant
mortality
rate
6.7 33
100
Life
expectancy
77 years
POPULATION MOMENTUM
Is greatest in developing nations because the pre-reproductive and reproductive population make up the largest portion of the total population = POPULATION GROWTH
Population Momentum is dictated by quality of life indicators and Per capita income.
71 years
52 years
Fertility
rate (TFR)
2.0
2.2
5.7
%Population
under
age 15
21%
30%
44%
% Population
over
age 65
12% 6% 3%
Per capita
GNI PPP
$36,110
$7,450
$800
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

31. India China Percentage of world 17% population 20% Population
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
1.7%
0.6%
Total fertility rate
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate 64 32
Life expectancy
62 years
71 years
GDP PPP per capita
$2,650
$4,520

33. Thailand
1971 – Thailand adopted a National Policy to reduce its population growth.
The population was growing at a rate of 3.2%/year.
TFR was 6.4
1986 – population decreased to 1.6%
1988 – population decreased to 1.1%
2000 – population decreased to 1%
(TFR = 1.9)

34. Population Growth Rate
If Thailand’s population growth rate is was 1% in 2000, when will it’s population double?
Use the “Rule of 70”
70/growth rate = doubling time
70/1.0 = 70 years
Therefore, Thailand’s population is expected to double in the year 2070.

35. How Did Thailand Accomplish Such a Dramatic Decrease in Population Growth Rate?
1. Government –supported family planning program
Mechai Viravidaiya created the Population and Community Development Association in It’s goal was to make family planning a national goal.
PCDA Workers:
Handed out condoms at festivals, movie theaters, traffic jams.
Wrote humorous songs about condom use and why you shouldn’t have more than 2 children (Replacement Fertility)
Traffic police handed out condoms on New Year’s Eve, now known as “Cops & Rubbers Day!”
Carts to dispense birth control pills and spermicidal foams at bus stations and public events.
Open vasectomy clinics (sterilization is the #1 form of birth control in Thailand)
On the King’s Birthday, PCDA offers free vasectomies!

36. Thailand’s Decrease in Population Rate
2. High literacy rate among woman (90%)
3. Economic roles for woman
4. Advances in woman’s rights
5. Better health care for mothers and children
6. Openness of Thailander’s to new ideas
7. Support of family planning by religious leaders (95% Budhist)
8. Government financial support – economic incentives – family planners can apply for low interest loans to install toilets, drinking water systems, and farmers can install irrigation systems.

37. Thailand Village

38. Problems Still Facing Thailander’s
Pollution (increase in resource use per capita) Bangkok is one of the most polluted and congested cities in the world.
High levels of traffic congestions (NOx = photochemical smog & acid deposition), CO2 & H2O (greenhouse gases)
Increased environmental degradation.
Public Health (respiratory problems on the rise, AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases are rampant (prostitution is legal).

39. King: PHUMIPHON Adunyadet

40. Japan
(Post - WWII) – cut birth rate, TFR & population growth rates by 50%!
TFR in 1949 was 4.5, in 1998 was 1.8 and it is on the decline still.
How? Family Planning Services and Stressed Resources (Japan has no natural resources, they import all necessary raw materials and process it in Japan).
Zero immigration rate = “pure population of Japanese” Population = 99% Japanese!
Economic burden of caring for elderly.
Declining workforce = lead the world in automated technology.
Japan has reached Zero Population Increase…now the world watches to see how they handle these issues in the future.

41. 40 35 30 25
Age Distribution (%) 20 15 10 5
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
Year
Under age 15
Age 60 or over
Age 80 or over

42. Access to Family Planning Education and Contraception
Family Planning – Rhythm Method

43. CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS
Extremely Effective
Total abstinence
100%
Sterilization
99.6%
Vaginal ring
98-99%
Highly Effective
IUD with slow-release
hormones
98%
IUD plus spermicide
98%
Vaginal pouch
(“female condom”)
97%
IUD
95%
Condom (good brand)
plus spermicide
95%
Oral contraceptive
93%

44. LESS EFFECTIVE CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS
Cervical cap
89%
Condom (good brand)
86%
Diaphragm plus
spermicide
84%
Rhythm method (Billings,
Sympto-Thermal)
84%
Vaginal sponge impreg-
nated with spermicide
83%
Spermicide (foam)
82%

45. Moderately Effective
Spermicide (creams,
jellies, suppositories)
Rhythm method (daily
temperature readings)
75%
74%
Withdrawal
74%
Condom (cheap brand)
70%
Unreliable
Douche
40%
Chance (no method)
10%

46. Contraception in the USA
60 million US woman are in the reproductive age range(15-44).
9/10 are practicing contraception.
There are 3 million unintended pregnancies each year resulting from incorrect or inconsistent use of contraceptives.
Most unintended pregnancies occur in teens!
Is abortion being used in the USA as a form of contraception by teens?

47. Life Tables
Life tables show projected life expectancy and probability of death for individuals at each age.
Insurance companies use these tables to determine policy costs for their customers.
Woman in the USA survive on average 7 years longer than men.
Therefore, a 65 year old male will pay more $ for life insurance than a 65 year old woman.

48. How Does Population Relate to the Economics of a Country?
Demographic Transition – A hypothesis of population change that states as countries become industrialized, first their death rates decrease followed by declines in birth rates.
There are four stages: Pre-industrial, Transitional, Industrial, Post-industrial.

49. Pre-Industrial Stage (Stage 1)
Harsh living conditions lead to a high birth rate (to compensate for high infant mortality rate) and a high death rate .
African Nations

50. Transitional Stage (Stage 2)
Industrialization begins which leads to an increase in food production and better access to health care and nutrition.
India, China, South & Central America, Middle East, Thailand

51. Industrial Stage (Stage 3)
Industrialization is widespread and birth rate begins to drop. Eventually birth rate will approach death rate. There is better access to birth control and family planning, decreased infant mortality, increase in jobs, and increased opportunities for woman.
Most Developed Countries

52. Post-Industrial Stage (Stage 4)
Birth rate decreases even further and equals death rate = ZERO POPULATION GROWTH (ZPG).
THEN… birth rate drops below death rate and population begins to decline slowly.
*** Shift from unsustainable to sustainable forms of economics!!!
37 Western European Countries and Japan have reached this stage (12% world population).

54. Conclusion
Over the next several decades, Developing countries now in the Transitional Stage can make the jump to the Industrialized Stage. As they make this jump, their quality of life improves…so does their per capita resource consumption. What happens next? Keep a close watch on China!
Demographic Trap – A poor country with a population growth of 2.5%/year needs an economic growth rate of 5% per year to make the transition. (Unlikely).

55. Rapid Population Growth Leads to…
Rapid and wasteful use of resources with too little emphasis on pollution prevention and waste reduction.
Degradation to Earth’s life-support systems.
Poverty which can drive poor people to use potentially renewable resources unsustainably for short-term survival.
Failure of economic and political systems to encourage sustainable economic development.
Our urge to dominate and manage nature for our use with far too little knowledge about how nature works.
Major Connection:
Population x Affluence x Technology = Environmental Degradation
P x A x T = E D

58. How Do We Slow Population Growth?
Promote Family Planning Education
Reduce Poverty
Empower Woman
Improve health care for infants, children, and pregnant woman.
Increase access to education especially for girls.
Increase the involvement of men in child rearing responsibilities.
Reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of economic production and consumption.
Promote free trade, private investment, and assitance to countries that need help.