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Our data may be used as a starting point for the research program of developing the short-term earthquake warning system based on the cosmic ray monitoring.

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Presentation on theme: "Our data may be used as a starting point for the research program of developing the short-term earthquake warning system based on the cosmic ray monitoring."— Presentation transcript:

1 Our data may be used as a starting point for the research program of developing the short-term earthquake warning system based on the cosmic ray monitoring facilities. Authors want to thanks Shepetov A.L. (The Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Tien-Shan high elevation mountain laboratory, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan) for the data provided for analysis. References: [1] www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter - Project “DEMETER” - Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions.www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter [2] JS NC “KAZKOSMOS” - “Space based scientific system to study the harbingers of the Earthquakes”, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan, 2007. [3] Zaharenkova I.E., Dissertation Thesis – “Utilization of GPS signal for the search of earthquakes harbingers in ionosphere”, RGU, Kaliningrad, 2007. [4] Semenov N.А., Dissertation thesis – “Earthquakes prediction systems”, State University of Information Technologies, St. Petersburg, Russia, 2007. [5] Bhattacharyya P., Chatterjee A., Chakrabarti B.K. “Common mode of origin of power laws in models of market and earthquake”, arXiv: physics/0510038, Nov. 2005. [6] Astafyeva N.M. “Wavelet-analysis: Theory and applications” // UFN 1996, V.166, N 11, p. 1145-1170. [7] Vityazev V.V. “Wavelet analysis of the time series”. St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia, 2007. [8] www.kndc.kz – Kazakhstan National Data Center. [9] Argynova A.H., Loctionov A.A., Oskomov V.V., Sadykov T.H., “Search for the short time periodic features in scale vs. time spectrum of neutron monitoring correlating with the processes of upcoming earthquakes build up”, “Contemporary space technologies”, Almaty, October 7-9, 2008. [10] Argynova A.H., Loctionov A.A., Oskomov V.V., Saduyev N.O., Kalikulov O.A., Kussainov A.S., “Cosmic Rays as an indicator of perturbations in local geodynamics”, the 6-th International Conference on Progress in Contemporary Physics and Fundamental Physical Education, Almaty, November 10-11. 2009 The scale, that is inverse frequency, is plotted on the Y axis. The X=113 moment corresponds to the beginning of the earthquake. The bottom part of the figure gives more detailed view of the event within 45- 115 hours time period and is scaled up to the 8 hours. Coloration, contour lines and numbers in contour lines captions give quantitative information about the processes. One can see that three days before the earthquake onset the fast high frequency variations in energy density create a sequence of events with slow growing scales sized from 2 to 7 hours. That is the structure which corresponds to the contemporary view of the fractal model of earthquake preparation stage. Figure 2. Shows an example of wavelet analysis for another time serious from the same year but several months later (September 12, 2007 till September 18, 2007). As we can see, the main challenge is to discriminate the targeted alternating sequence of events (highlighted by the different color map in the square areas) on the strong background of other natural periodic processes, such as diurnal variation or Forbush effect, and compare it to the complex seismic activity in the region. Conclusions and Future Studies: Thus, the scale-time correlations in the cosmic ray intensity variations may be used as an indicator of the relatively weak changes in local geodynamic at the 150-200 km distance from the detectors deployed in Almaty. Suggested approach contributes substantially to the existing complex of traditional seismic, geochemical and other methods of earthquakes prediction. Introduction: Recently, correlations between local geodynamics and corresponding changes in ionosphere condition have drawn closer attention than ever. The physical basis for that type of analysis is provided by the complex of experimental and theoretical results obtained from studying lithosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere. These studies actively utilize space satellite monitoring systems [1,2] and GPS-technology [3,4]. Objectives: The primary goal of our work is to study correlations between the cosmic ray intensity frequency spectrum and variations in local geodynamics building up before the actual earthquake. Detectors and the center of an earthquake are separated by the 150-200 kilometers distance. Electromagnetic variations induced in ionosphere are too weak to change the whole flux of the cosmic rays, but they can modulate some parts of it frequency spectrum. Variations in local geodynamic, happening right before the earthquakes, correspond to the complex, fractal-like nonstationary processes [5]. That explains the oscillating nature for the probability density of the frequency-time dependent observations. For the purposes of analysis amplitude vs. time spectra should be transformed into frequency vs. time or scale vs. time spectra. These scale vs. time spectra have been studied by the methods developed for the nonstationary processes analysis [6,7]. It is possible for each particular data set to study the smallest details of the frequency spectrum and obtain information about relative contribution of the high frequency components under consideration. Methods and main results: For the purpose of numerical simulations Matlab (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA) Wavelet Toolbox has been used. We have tested our method using the database of the past earthquakes provided by Kazakhstan National Data Center [8]. Combined analysis of the earthquake seismograms and scale vs. time neutron spectra has shown [9,10] that the developed method is able to predict the weak (magnitude 3-4) earthquakes tens of hours before their onset by detecting the local variations in geodynamics. Figure 1. gives an example of analysis of the local variations in scale vs. time neutron spectrum based on the data from neutron supermonitor 18NM64 which is located in Tien-Shan high elevation mountain station, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan. This figure plots the modulated cosmic ray intensity at the time of earthquake which happened on June the 6-th, 2007, in the vicinity of city of Tokmak, Kyrgyzstan, 150 km south-west from Almaty, Kazakhstan. At the center it reached 6.0 magnitude and was registered as a 3.0 magnitude earthquake in Almaty. The top part of the figure shows the complete picture of event during 210 hours period. The time is potted on the X axis. SEARCH FOR THE NEUTRON SPECTRUM PARTICULARITIES ASSOCIATED WITH FORTHCOMING EARTHQUAKES. Figure 1. High frequency spectrum of the energy density distribution in 200 hours time period. Figure 2 – High frequency spectrum of energy density distribution in the neutron monitor data registered from September 12, 2007 till September 18, 2007. ♫ Argynova A.H., ♫ Loctionov A.A., ♪ Oskomov V.V., ♪ Saduyev N.O, ♪ Kalikulov O.A., ♪ Kussainov A.S. ♫ Institute of Nuclear Physics. National Nuclear Center. Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan ♪ Kazakh National University, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan


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