1. Political Economy in Asia-Pacific Associate Professor Linda Low National University of Singapore 7 May 2003

2. Political economy of identity Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, 1989 ASEAN Regional Forum 1995 Asian-Europe Meeting 1996 East Asian-Latin American Cooperation 1997 ASEAN10 vs ASEAN6 East Asia (includes Southeast Asia) since 1997 Asian crisis, Asian solutions or IMF China, Japan or ASEAN leadership 911 and terrorism South Asia, Australasia?

3. Northeast Asia political economy Japan tutelage –flying geese model of trade and investment –SEA as resource base, market –US-Japan implicit division of labour, security China economic reform, WTO accession –cross strait, Taiwan as domestic issue –economics, culture of Greater China, bamboo network Korea –sunshine policy, joining OECD 1996, Kim Dae- jung’s East Asian Vision Group

4. Southeast Asia political economy From ASEAN preferential trade area to ASEAN free trade area, presently stalled Most successful developing country group? Before & after China? Enlargement, widening vs deepening Indonesia as regional drag Malaysian politics, Muslim state, not Islam Thai politics, recovery Reinvent Singapore Inc

5. Asia leadership, vision East Asian Vision Group, East Asian community Japan vs China, power sharing with ASEAN? Response, defence or offence to new regionalism, geopolitics, geoeconomics US-Japan security pact, economics, geopolitics Small states like Singapore, SAR Hong Kong US influence and action in cross strait, two Koreas, terrorism, axis of evil, Muslim divide

6. Asian economics, community ASEAN/Asian way, noninstitutionalised, noninterference, sovereignty not supranational Progress of APEC as economic/business model vs ASEM more socio-political, cultural Economics of East Asia, resources, markets Demographics eg 2-billion club: 1-child policy China vs youthful India), ageing Japan, rest Heterogeneous economics as division of labour vs heterogenous politics, socio-culture

7. Asia political economy model 1 st vs 2 nd generation developmental states –different global orders, nationalism & homogeneity in Northeast vs Southeast ethnicity Transformative capacity with globalisation, information communication technology, knowledge-based economy, deregulation Old vs new economy, intellectual capital, employment creation, employability Democratisation, emerging social issues

8. Converging crises OECD recovery, global economy US-Iraq war, repercussions on oil, Muslim world, cross-Atlantic, cross Pacific Deficit, deflation, dollar, debt Eurozone recovery weaker than US Japan still mired in profound stagnation, rising unemployment, bankruptcies, deflation OECD is no real solution for Asia even if triad maintains 2-3% growth

9. Northeast Asian trends Intraregional, domestic engines Uncertainty, diffident consumer spending China, Greater China (Pearl River Delta & Yangtze River Delta), bamboo network Northeast Asian dynamism –Taiwan as big investor, but rebuff from PRC –Korea more resilient despite N-S tensions, domestic demand, low unemployment –Trade and trade balance, tourism –Demographics and labour

10. Southeast Asian trends ASEAN linked with Northeast flying geese model more than South Asia (youthful demographics and IT as new engines?) Rivalry or riches vs Northeast Asia? Competition or Complementation? Weakened domestic demand with war Intraregional trade, esp to China helps Industrial exports holding in Spore, Msia, Viet, Thail, not Indon, Phil

11. Southeast Asian trends ASEAN Free Trade Area vs ASEAN+3 Other overtures to ASEAN by CER (Australia, NZ), Japan, China, India, US ASEAN marginalised or renewed value? Bilateral trade arrangements, Japan, Spore, Korea, HK, even Thail, Msia SEA as resource base, industrial niche, buffer, alternative for diversity, plurality Managing macroeconomic policies, cooperation, corporate, financial reforms

12. Trends, prospects Interregional economics is substantial Managing second growth round with ICT, KBE, innovation, be globalisation ready? Political commitment and sustainability Crisis-induced APT, long term alternative? Working with global political economy Irrefutably open Asian economies Rising profile in world, international political economy, make space for Asia