1. automated Vehicles and transportation system sustainability
National Conference of the American Planning Association
April 26, 2014
Dr. Louis A. Merlin, AICP
Thank other speakers
Big picture of transportation sustainability

2. Does automation lead to sustainability?
Answer: Either Yes, No, or Maybe.
Scenario 1: The end of congestion
Scenario 2: The beginning of mega-congestion
End of congestion. Cars never crash. All cars speak to each other and coordinate their flow so there is no congestion. Cars don’t need to completely stop at intersections because all movements are coordinated.
Beginning of mega congestion. People send their empty cars to do errands for them. Seniors and young teenagers start to use cars. Everyone lives further away and doesn’t mind being stuck in traffic because someone else is doing the driving while they watch a movie.

3. What do we mean by automated vehicles?
Automation
Connection
Sharing
Confusion of three distinct concepts
LONG RUN CONVERGENCE!
Synergies between each of these concepts
Convergence??

4. Automation: the car that drives in real world conditions
BENEFITS:
1 – SAFETY
2- CONVENIENCE
NOT SUSTAINABILITY

5. Connection: V2V, V2I, V2X Source: Florida Department of Transportation
BENEFITS
CONGESTION – PLATOONING, CRUISING THROUGH GREEN LIGHTS
SAFETY – SEE AROUND CORNERS
Source: Florida Department of Transportation

6. Car sharing & Ride sharing
DEFINITION
MOBILE PHONE MAKING THIS MORE VIABLE IN REAL TIME
BENEFITS:
AFFORDABILITY
MOBILITY
MULTIMODALITY (ELIMINATES NEED TO HAVE YOUR CAR WITH YOU)!
Source: The Nature Conservancy

7. Sustainable Transport
Sustainable transport requires the integration of all three components!
Sustainable Transport
Automation
Connected
Sharing
Automation alone will not end congestion. Most vehicles on the road will be driven by humans and will not be talking to each other.
Sharing without automation will always just be a small segment of the market.
Connection. Live information technology has significant benefits, i.e. real time traffic and routing information, but the full level of information can only be taken advantage of in an automated vehicle.
Connected vehicles provide much more situational awareness to support automation
Automation allows shared vehicles to be used much more widely by repositioning of empty vehicles
Vehicle sharing makes automation more affordable and accessible by sharing the costs more broadly
In the short run these can and will happen separately
Together they make a promising framework for sustainable transport

8. Sustainable transport via automation integration
Congestion reduction – Flow and capacity optimized in real time via integration
Built in Pricing – High marginal costs encourages shorter trips
Affordability – Low fixed costs means more people can benefit from mobility
Vehicle fleet – Smaller vehicle sizes and more efficient fleet possible
Multimodalism – Alternative modes can be more competitive without auto oriented urban designs (Less parking!)

9. Roadblocks to integration
The Vehicle Ownership Paradigm
Automation: The slow rollout model
Market uncertainty: Will consumers want this?
Liability: Shift from driver to manufacturer
Chicken and egg problem: Regulations and infrastructure for integrated automation don’t exist yet
LUXURY PRODUCE FOR DECADES!
MARKET RISK – LIABILITY RISK – CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM
Why does the industry prefer the incremental rollout model?
Current incentives are for the auto manufacturing industry to slow the delivery of full automation (point to point) as long as possible!
Gradual progression from Level 2 – Level 4
Safety risks
Consumer wariness
Risk of shift to vehicle sharing model
Liability
Level 3 maintains at least the appearance of driver responsibility
Chicken and egg
Manufacturers slow to incorporate benefits of connectivity because there are no standards yet, because the infrastructure is not there to support V2I connectivity.
Regulations not clear on who the driver is, what the responsibilities of the “driver” and manufacturer are
History:
Market for cars picked up significantly when parkways were built, when roads were paved.
We cannot assume that vehicles will develop first; infrastructure and vehicles co-develop

10. Value of pilot projects
Break through the chicken and egg problem
Demonstrate benefits of integrated automation in real world settings
CityMobil2 – Europe
University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center
PILOT PROJECTS = AUTOMATION + CONNECTION + SHARING
AUTOMATED TRANSIT

11. cityMobil2: Cities demonstrating automated road passenger transport
Pilot projects in real cities
How will passengers respond?
Are these systems safe and robust?
How does this system interact with other components of the transport system?
Analysis of legal barriers and standards
Analysis of economic impacts
Link:

12. University of Michigan Mobility transformation center
Pilot study of connected vehicles with human drivers
What are the safety benefits?
How do drivers react to connected vehicle information?
Link:
By 2021, Ann Arbor could become the first American city with a shared fleet of networked, driverless vehicles
Link:

13. A modest Proposal: automated transit for the Atlanta beltline
Source: Atlanta Beltline Inc.
ATLANTA BELTLINE TRANSIT PLAN – FEB 2014
LIGHT RAIL AND STREETCARS PROPOSAL
INSUFFICIENT FUNDING SOURCES
Source: Induct Technology.com

14. A modest Proposal: automated transit for the Atlanta beltline
Vehicles designed to work in areas with pedestrian activity
Less expensive than light rail infrastructure
Flexible to a range of demand
Opportunity to be technology pioneer

15. Questions?
Dr. Louis Merlin, AICP
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

16. automated Vehicles and transportation system sustainability
National Conference of the American Planning Association
April 26, 2014
Dr. Louis A. Merlin, AICP

17. Supplemental slides

18. Long Range Planning and Uncertainty
Infrastructure planning has long lead times, high costs, and irreversibility
Uncertainty over sources transportation finance
Uncertainty over climate impacts on infrastructure
Uncertainty over demographic and economic trends
Uncertainty over vehicular technologies and their implications