1. Thoughts about Population Projections Applied Demography Conference January 9, 2014 Qian Cai, University of Virginia Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina

2. Projection Methodologies “Looking Into the Past: Thomas Circle, Washington, DC” by Jason E. Powell

3. Purposes & Use of Projections

4. Accuracy & Plausibility http://xkcd.com/605

5. { Total Population Sex * Age * { Race Hispanic Origin P r i o r i t y # 1 P r i o r i t y # 2 P r i o r i t y # 3 P r i o r i t y # 4 Population Pro j ections

6. Our Approach 1. is guided by statistical and demographic theories 2. is straightforward, practical, and easy to implement 3. produces reasonable results

7. Contact Qian Cai Director, Demographics Research Group Weldon Cooper Center, University of Virginia qian.cai@virginia.eduqian.cai@virginia.edu | (434) 982-5581 Rebecca Tippett Director, Carolina Demography Carolina Population Center, UNC-Chapel Hill rtippett@unc.edurtippett@unc.edu | (919) 966-2829 http://www.coopercenter.org/demographics/national-population-projections