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Lisa Emberson & Patrick Büker 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment.

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Presentation on theme: "Lisa Emberson & Patrick Büker 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lisa Emberson & Patrick Büker 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment

2 Talk Outline O 3 and crop loss in South Asia The Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project Links to external organisations (e.g. APCEN, LRTAP, ABC, GAP Forum) The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

3 Talk Outline O 3 and crop loss in South Asia The Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project Links to external organisations (e.g. APCEN, LRTAP, ABC, GAP Forum) The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment

4 Ground level Ozone (O 3 ) pollution O 3 is a rural pollutant reaching high concentrations in rural/agricultural areas O 3 is 3 rd most important GHG..important for climate change

5 Dentener et al. (2006) Europe36.6 ppb ± 4.2 United states38.7 ppb ± 4.9 South Asia45.0 ppb ± 6.9 Current (year 2000) ground level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations

6 Importance of Phenology 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

7 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Evidence of ground level ozone (O 3 ) impacts on crops are current day concentrations O 3 effects on plants include: Foliar / visible injury Accelerate senescence Reduce plant growth Alter plant metabolism Reduce crop yield

8 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Evidence of ground level ozone (O 3 ) impacts on crops are current day concentrations O 3 effects on plants include: Foliar / visible injury Accelerate senescence Reduce plant growth Alter plant metabolism Reduce crop yield

9 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Experimental data for wheat showing yield response to ozone (O 3 ) concentrations Crop variety, experimental conditions, environmental conditions, O 3 exposure pattern

10 Indo-Gangetic Plain The most important agricultural region in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

11 Talk Outline O 3 and crop loss in South Asia The Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project Links to external organisations (e.g. APCEN, LRTAP, ABC, GAP Forum) The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment

12 i.Perform “provisional” risk assessments ii.Conduct Malé experimental studies – using standardised experimental protocols - “ground-truth” risk assessments iii.Develop socio-economic assessment methods and policy engagement 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project in conjunction with Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

13 i.Perform “provisional” risk assessments ii.Conduct Malé experimental studies – using standardised experimental protocols - “ground-truth” risk assessments iii.Develop socio-economic assessment methods and policy engagement 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project in conjunction with Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

14 APCEN (Air Pollution Crop Effect Network) RegionNetwork Members Countries / regions represented Africa 14 Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania, Botswana Asia 55 India, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan, P.R. China, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Bangladesh The Americas, Europe and Australia 18 Australia, Chile, Sweden, UK, USA, Brazil, Germany Provide technical support to the Malé experimental campaign To help in translation of science to policy 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

15 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

16 i.Perform “provisional” risk assessments ii.Conduct Malé experimental studies – using standardised experimental protocols - “ground-truth” risk assessments iii.Develop socio-economic assessment methods and policy engagement 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project in conjunction with Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

17 Engardt (2008) MATCH photochemical model (0.5 x 0.5 o grid) TRACE-P emissions (Streets et al. 2003); ECMWF modelled meteorology (2000) AOT40 – European critical level for O 3 effects (3 ppm.hrs)

18 i.Perform “provisional” risk assessments ii.Conduct Malé experimental studies – using standardised experimental protocols - “ground-truth” risk assessments iii.Develop socio-economic assessment methods and policy engagement 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project in conjunction with Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

19 Malé experimental studies Bio-monitoring and Chemical Protectant Studies Established bio-indicator in Europe and North America Sensitive and resistant clones so can assess magnitude of air pollution impacts on visible injury & biomass. Buse et al. 2002/2003

20 Bio-monitoring and Chemical Protectant Studies Structural formula for N-(2-(2-oxo-1- imadazolidinyl)ethyl)-N’-phenylurea abbreviated as EDU for ethylenediurea EDU suppresses acute and chronic ozone injury on a variety of plants under ambient O 3 conditions (Godzik & Manning, 1998) Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore, Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid) Malé experimental studies

21 CountryIndiaPakistanBangladeshNepalSri Lanka Malé memberProf. AgrawalProf. ShamsiProf. Sattar, Dr. Islam Prof. Lal Amgain Dr. A. Perera LocationVaranasiLahoreMymensinghRampurParadeniya Clover-clone bio-monitoring  2007 2008 Biomass loss~10% 2007 2008 Biomass loss~20%  EDU Chemical protectant 2006-2008 Yield loss~40% wheat, mung bean, spinach, potato 2007-2008 Yield loss~15-65% mung bean, spinach, 2008 Yield loss~15-52% mung bean, potato 2008 Yield loss~52% mung bean 2007-2008 Yield loss~5%* mung bean Bhutan – Passive sampler monitoring study Maldives and Iran – Not participated in Phase III, Phase IV?

22 i.Perform “provisional” risk assessments ii.Conduct Malé experimental studies – using standardised experimental protocols - “ground-truth” risk assessments iii.Develop socio-economic assessment methods and policy engagement 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project in conjunction with Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

23 Provisional economic loss estimates for crops in South Asia Wheat, Rice, Soybean, Potato European AOT40 dose-response relationships FAO crop production, distribution and producer price data for 2000 MATCH modelled O 3 concentrations for 2000 Loss estimated at US$ 3.9 Billion India (US$ 3.1), Pakistan (US$ 0.35) and Bangladesh (US$ 0.4) 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

24 Talk Outline O 3 and crop loss in South Asia The Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project Links to external organisations (e.g. APCEN, CLRTAP, ABC, GAP Forum) The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment

25 Clean Air Initiative - AsiaMale Declaration – South AsiaCentral Asian Republics Association of south east Asian nations (ASEAN) Acid deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) Air pollution Information Network for Africa (APINA) Inter-American Network for Biospheric- Atmospheric Studies (IANABIS) “Working to bring together regional networks, international organisations and other stakeholders to develop effective policies and programmes to protect public health and the environment from the harmful effects of atmospheric pollution”

26 Linkages between different organisations for Crop Impact Assessment Air Pollution Crop Effect Network APCEN help in modification of risk assessment methods developed in CLRTAP by ICP Vegetation for Asian conditions. Atmospheric Brown Cloud 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka ICP Vegetation Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia Malé Declaration (via UNEP Asia) formally requested link with CLRTAP - request has been formally accepted by CLRTAP WGE, Task Forces and their ICPs

27 Talk Outline O 3 and crop loss in South Asia The Malé Crop Impact Assessment Project Links to external organisations (e.g. APCEN, LRTAP, ABC, GAP Forum) The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Introduction of Crop Impact Assessment

28 Dentener et al. (2006) CLE2000 – CLE2030 Europe+1.8 ± 1.5 United states+1.3 ± 2.4 South Asia+7.2 ± 1.9 Δ in surface ozone between 2000 and 2030 current legislation scenario

29 The future of O 3 crop impacts in South Asia International agreements to curb O 3 precursor emissions Co-ordinated experimental campaigns for South Asia Crop breeding programmes to reduce sensitivity in crop varieties Understanding the role of O 3 on food security and poverty Understanding the interaction between O 3 and climate change Improved communication between policy makers, stakeholders and scientists 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka

30 APCEN website: http://www.sei.se/apcen/ 5 th Malé Declaration meeting, Colombo, Sri Lanka Acknowledgements Thanks to the Swedish International Development Agency for funding the important work presented in this talk.

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