1. Closing the Culture Gap Presentation by Al From The Democratic Leadership Council's National Conversation Indianapolis, Indiana July 16,2001 www.ndol.org The Key to Breaking the Tie in American Politics

2. Closing the Cultural Gap The Key to Breaking the Tie In American Politics The New Electorate and the New Political Context What we learned from the 2000 Election The New Democrat Formula for Closing the Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American Politics

3. The Parties at Parity

4. Parity in 2000 The Tie in American Politics

5. The Parties at Parity The Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics

6. The Parties at Parity The Tie in the House

7. The Parties at Parity The Reasons The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

8. The New Electorate PERIODDOMINANT VOTERS Industrial EraWorking Class ---------------------------------------------------- Information AgeRising Learning Class -----------------------------------------------------

9. Voters Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000

10. An Affluent Electorate Characteristics of 2000 Voters

11. Educational Attainment Percentage of voters with a college degree

12. Diversity

13. The Suburbs Rule Percentage of Voters 2000

14. The Suburban Swing Congressional Seats

15. From City to Suburb Percentage of Statewide Vote

16. The Union Vote Coming Back But Still Below 1984

17. Wired Voters Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

18. Generational Change In the 2000 Election Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters. The dominant generations are the skeptical generations--the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

19. Political Views

20. Party Identification Percentage of Voters

21. The 2000 Election

22. The Diminishing Economic Class Divisions Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

23. The Missing Middle Democrats Win Least and Best Educated

24. Missing the Mark Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

25. Missing the Target The Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000 Post Grad College Grad Some College High School Grad HS Dropout Over 100K 75 - 100K 50 – 75K 30 – 50K 15 – 30K Under 15K

26. responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a Message Matters If a candidate for President said this, would it have made you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for them for President? Top Arguments Ranked by Much more likely Much More Likely More/ Less Likely I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America. 46 79/15 I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all, demands government that equips all Americans with the tools they need for economic success. 41 78/15 I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and big tobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful. 41 70/24 (All Voters)

27. Message Matters (Key Voter Categories B Much More Likely Gore Voters Bush Voters Bush Swing Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

28. The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

29. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Race

30. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Gender

31. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin Among White Men and Women 19841988199219962000

32. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin By Marital Status All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Child under 18 39 +2 +7 -7 +14 No 61 +8 +4 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11

33. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin on Guns and Abortion All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25)-25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12)-45 -52 +7

34. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Religion All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Attend Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42)-12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Protestant 54 -9 -9 -14 +5 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 Jewish 4 +69 +62 +60 +2 White Prot 56 (of whites) -14 -17 -29 +12 White Cath 25 (of whites) +5 +7 -7 +14

35. The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Ideology, Party and Role of Government All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Liberal 20 +54 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16

36. Swing StatesGOP Base Demo Base The Swing States

37. The Swing States: Electoral Votes Democratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 Mass 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 New Jersey 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260 Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143

38. The New Democrat Approach

39. What is a New Democrat? New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party We further our partys enduring values with new and innovative ideas

40. Core Principles The New Democrat Philosophy Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook Empowering Government Mutual Responsibility Traditional Values

41. The New Democrat Philosophy Americas Basic Bargain Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

42. Where New Democrats Stand for economic growth and opportunity for fiscal responsibility for work, not welfare for strengthening families for preventing crime and punishing criminals for non-bureaucratic, empowering government for fostering a new sense of community and an ethic of mutual responsibility by asking citizens to give something back to their country

43. Role of Government What is the Proper Role of the Federal Goverment?

44. Government and the Economy What Role Should the Federal Goverment Play in the Economy?

45. Closing the Cultural Gap Lessons From the Clinton Victories Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents Raise Kids Support a Strong National Defense Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like Abortion or Guns

46. The Winning Coalition in 2004 A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and Rising Learning Class

47. The Bottom Line In a Time of Parity Message Matters More The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups. How we frame our message is likely to be the difference between victory and defeat. The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.