1. Enhancing TDF Model Results Using Intersection Control Specific Delays and Turning Movement Level Matrix Estimation for a Downtown Circulation Study Presented to the 11 th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications May 9, 2007 By Gregory Giaimo, Ohio Department of Transportation

2. Motivation of Presentation Demonstrate Use of New Techniques to Improve TDF Model Results for Project Analysis Emphasis on a Careful and Methodical Implementation versus “Push Button”

3. Two Key Tools Explicit Intersection Delay Modeling Turn Movement Level Matrix Estimation

4. Background on the Mansfield Traffic and Parking Study Various one way street configurations downtown to be analyzed Need opening (2012) and design year volumes for the AM and PM peak hours Consultant has already set up and run a Synchro analysis using the base year counted volumes and the existing operational configuration Task: to create good forecast turn movement volumes on these alternatives for further Synchro operational analysis to produce a final alternative

5. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

6. Network Lane Checking Turn lane configurations in the model were checked vs. Synchro. These were double checked vs. aerial photos and video log. Errors in network were corrected and full validation model rerun. Some errors in the Synchro data were found and were sent to the MPO

7. Check Count Consistency Turn counts were checked for consistency in a spreadsheet They were also aggregated to link level and plotted on the network Overall, the turn counts from adjacent intersections were reasonably consistent PM Peak Turn Volumes Aggregated to Links

8. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

9. Updating Signal Operations Over-ride signal locations Signal phasing editor Updated signal timings and progression based on Synchro files Moral: assumed default signal operation parameters don’t work with operational level studies

10. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

11. Rerun Base Year Model Save Paths

12. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

13. Extract Sub Area Net and Trip Table Not always necessary but helpful in this case

14. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

15. Fratar Cordon Volumes 24 Hour Link car/truck counts at cordon converted to period level directional values using full model assignment Original sub area trip table Fratared

16. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

17. Check for Routing Problems Fratared trip tables assigned and assignments checked for path problems Some small speed adjustments corrected most problems Due to odd routing of SR 13 through CBD, SR 13 through trips were placed in their own volume group to force them on the SR 13 signed route (because a much shorter path down Main Street exists but counts indicate the through traffic largely remains on the signed route)

18. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

19. Prepare Inputs for Matrix Estimation Car/Truck are compressed, turning movement counts were by class but truck volume was too low to bother with independently Extract trip ends Add confidence levels to data: –Trip table cell1 –Internal trip end10 –External trip end50 –Older turn count50 –New turn count75

20. Run Matrix Estimation Can accept various data items such as: –Link or turn counts –Trip ends –Seed trip table –Etc. All inputs require confidence levels –Relative values –Order of magnitude difference needed to see much impact Adjusts the trip matrix to fit the various weighted (through confidence levels) observed data with minimum error

21. Run Matrix Estimation (cont.) 2 Matrices required, trips and confidence level ASCII, zone, origins, destinations, O confidence, D confidence ASCII, screen number, from-through-to nodes, count, confidence level The information contained in the print file is extremely important and should be well understood by anyone wishing to use matrix estimation properly Need a path file from a previous assignment

22. Run Matrix Estimation Print File Here’s information on average confidence levels and amounts of data, very important for helping set confidence levels. This shows input matrix characteristics, the warning messages show counts that had no trips assigned in the prior assignment. This is important, a link or turn with no assignment before won’t get any in matrix estimation either. This shows that convergence occurred and the number of iterations. This shows how good each zones trip ends match. This shows how well each count was matched, notice that the counts match better than trip ends due to higher confidence.

23. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

24. Check Forecast Variables Variables checked in spreadsheet and through plots Noticed large discrepancy between 2000 and 2005 due to changes in assumptions

25. Check Forecast Variables (cont.) In contrast the 2005 and 2030 variables are consistent and show growth in reasonable areas Since the forecast variables aren’t “official” it was decided to use these to derive growth factors for the base year

26. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

27. Run Forecast Year Model Base Year Model with Forecast Variables New Scenarios added for forecast land use

28. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

29. Fratar to Forecast Year Trip ends extracted from forecast year trip tables Fratar factors (not targets) calculated in spreadsheet Separate Origin and Destination factors (excerpt below is from the Origin factor computation)

30. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

31. Code Alternative Networks Four alternatives –Alt. 1: Two way operation on Main and Diamond –Alt. 2: Two way operation on Main and Walnut –Alt. 3: Two way operation on Diamond, Main, Mulberry and Walnut –Alt. 4: As Alt. 3 plus two way operation on First and Second In addition to adding two way operation, lane configurations and signal operations updated appropriately

32. Code Alternative Networks (cont.) Nobuild (Existing) Alternative 1 TURNLANE annotated, LANES colored

33. Code Alternative Networks (cont.) Alternative 2 Alternative 3 TURNLANE annotated, LANES colored

34. Code Alternative Networks (cont.) Alternative 4 TURNLANE annotated, LANES colored

35. Compress car/truck, get trip end file and confidence levels Check network & count coding Turn counts and Synchro files from MPO Rerun base year model using revised network Extract sub area network and trip table for AM and PM periods Add detailed signal timing and progression Calculate Fratar targets at sub area cordon Run matrix estimation to create final base year demand volumes Forecast zonal variables from MPO Check variables, reformat and fix as necessary Create scenarios in full model for forecast years Extract sub areas for each period for each forecast year Calculate Fratar factors by zone to adjust base year demand to future Fratar base demand to future Code alternative networks Assign both periods for all three years (base, opening, design) to all networks Take DBF turn volumes to XLS and convert to Synchro CSV format Study Flow Chart Reassign, correct obvious path problems, reassign

36. Assign & Export to Synchro Save Turn Volumes to DBF Lookup tables of Synchro direction codes and intersection ID’s required in spreadsheet to convert Cube From- Thru-To node A pivot table in spreadsheet then easily converts turn movements to the tabular format required by Synchro

37. Impact of Adjustments on Volume

38. Impact of Adjustments on Volume (cont.)

39. Turn Volumes From Several Methods The obvious question: After all this effort what is the impact on the final results? Different turning movement volumes are obtained using the adjusted sub-area model vs. simply coding the network changes/variables into the original model as shown below What impact do these differences have?

40. Validated Regional ModelAdjusted Sub-area Model 2000 Alternative 1, PM Peak Assignment, Intersection of Diamond & Park Ave West 263 Left 389 Through 378 Right 236 Left 859 Through 353 Right

41. Turn Volumes From Several Methods (cont.) As expected the adjusted model matches counts better While the standard link based %RMSE of this model is 33%, the CBD turning movements have a substantially higher value of 73% for the validation year model

42. Turn Volumes From Several Methods (cont.) The regional model using junction based assignment performs marginally better than the regional model using equilibrium when compared to counts

43. Turn Volumes From Several Methods (cont.) However, more importantly, the sensitivity of traffic to the coded alternative is much closer to that obtained with the adjusted model

44. Turn Volumes From Several Methods (cont.) Changes resulting from the forecast year are much smaller than the model error (without adjustments) due to the low growth in the area

45. Turn Volumes From Several Methods (cont.) Changes resulting from the alternative are similar magnitude to the model error without adjustment Thus, the adjustment process and junction modeling is most likely needed to reasonably predict turning movement level outputs in an area highly regulated by traffic control devices such as the CBD

46. Comparison of Model LOS Original ModelFinal Sub Area Model How do these volume differences impact the decision making process? Different Volumes, Same Methods (Year 2000 No Build Shown)

47. Questions Please Use Microphone