1. Impact of the Crisis on Remittances to the Arab Countries Bachir Hamdouch University Mohamed V Rabat,Morocco

2. Introduction Remittances to the developping countries:sizeable and increasing volumes: -1995:$ 58 billion,57% of global remittances -2007: $ 240 billion (1995x4),75% of global remittances -More than ODA, FDI and Private debt flows -More stable... but impact of the crisis ?

3. Introduction(2) Caution : - These figures should be interpreted with great caution because of the uneven quality of the remittances data. - Formal remittances only (formal channels). - Cash remittances only ( remittances in Kinds: 13% of total remittances in Morocco).

4. Introduction(3) Contents: 2 parts: 1.Remittances to the Arab countries 1.1. Arab countries of emigration:2 groups 1.2. Remittances magnitude varies 2.Impact of the crisis on remittances to the the Arab countries 2.1. Impact of the crisis on migration flows 2.2. Impact on remittances Conclusion: Policy implications

5. 1.Remittances to the Arab Countries 1.1. Arab Countries of Emigration:2 groups Countries (main Arab countries of emigration ):10 countries, 2 groups: Intensity, history and characteristics of the migration and the remittances differs between the 2 groups and inside the 2 groups(petrol exporting versus non exporting): First group: Maghreb countries :Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia. Emigration mainly to Western Europe ( France,Spain,Italy…): becoming permanent immigration from mid seventies.. Second group: Machrek countries (Egypt, Sudan, Jordan,Palestine,Lebanon,Syria,Yemen) Emigration mainly to other Arab countries (Gulf +Libya:relatively recent, temporary immigration ?) and North America (old and permanent immigration)…

6. 1.Remittances to the Arab countries(2) 1.2. Remittances magnitude varies: Volume of remittances Remittances /GDP Tables & Graphe

7. Table 1: Remittance to Arab Countries (1990-2005) (million of US $) Country19901995200020012002200320042005 Group I Morocco Algeria Tunisia Group II Egypt Sudan Jordan Palestine Lebanon Syria Yemen 2006 352 551 4284 62 449 - 1818 385 1498 1970 1120 680 3226 346 1441 626 1225 339 1080 2161 790 796 2825 669 1845 1124 2110 656 1288 3261 670 927 2911 819 2011 799 2308 653 1295 2877 1070 1071 2893 1086 2143 676 2544 610 1294 3614 1750 1250 2961 1218 2201 692 3507 676 1270 4221 2460 1432 3341 1580 2330 692 5592 855 1283 4595 1950 1242 5017 1679 2500 692 4257 855 1283 All Arab countries receiving remittances 1146812 12114 35315 71716 51919 43526 07924 371 FDI139416285699751457799575911517 913 ODA10431526945545060639858546347 Source: AMF,IMF,WB.

8. Graphe 1:Remittances,FDI and ODA to Arab Countries

9. Table 2: Remittances / GDP (%) (1990-2005) Country19901995200020012002200320042005 Group I Morocco Algeria Tunisia Group II Egypt Sudan Jordan Palestine Lebanon Syria Yemen 7.6 0.6 4.4 12.1 0.3 10.8 - 64.7 2.8 16.7 5.9 2.7 3.8 5.4 7.1 21.7 17.5 11.0 2.0 20.9 6.5 1.4 4.1 2.9 5.1 21.8 27.3 12.7 3.5 13.3 9.8 1.2 4.6 3.2 5.6 22.4 20.9 13.5 3.2 13.0 7.9 1.9 4.6 3.4 6.6 22.4 19.5 13.8 3.0 12.0 8.2 2.6 4.6 3.6 6.4 21.6 17.7 17.6 3.1 10.7 8.4 2.9 4.9 4.3 7.2 20.4 16.7 25.7 3.5 9.3 8.8 1.9 4.3 5.6 5.9 19.7 15.4 19.3 3.1 7.9 Source: AMF,IMF,WB.

10. Table 3: Source of remittances (%) (2005) SourceReceiving country Arab Countries European Union North America Other Countries MoroccoAlgeriaTunisiaEgyptJordanLebanonSyria 6.3 85.0 4.0 4.7 7.0 88.0 1.0 4.0 9.7 85.0 1.0 4.3 48.4 11.0 32.0 8.6 85.0 5.0 7.0 3.0 45.0 10.0 25.0 20.0 65.0 5.0 10.0 20.0 Total100.0 Source: AMF,IMF,WB.

11. 2.Impact of the crisis on remittances to the Arab countries 2.1.Impact of the crisis on migration - Reduction of activity of immigrants: increase of unemployment : last in, first out (LIFO) in labour markets. - Flows of migration:.less inflows ( better frontiers control, expulsions,readmission agreements ).more outflows (return migration ?)

12. 2.Impact of the crisis on remittances to the Arab countries(2) 2.1.Impact on remittances: - Fall of remittances in all labour sending countries …but degree of decline differs; depends on:.deepness of the crisis in the labour receiving country, his immigration policy ….patterns of migration and characteristics of immigrants..evolution of remittances volumes

13. 2.Impact of the crisis on remittances to the Arab countries(3) 2.1.Impact on remittances(2): -Impact on emigration countries depends on:. Size of remittances: % of GDP, % of households receiving remittances and % of the remittances in their revenues ( budget) …. Uses of remittances: example of Morocco: Consumption(household current expenditures): 71.0 Investment : 7.7 Bank deposit: 20.9 Other : 0.4 Total : 100.0

14. Conclusion -Impact more or less important : Impact of the crisis on the economy of the remittances receiving country; Impact of the crisis on remittances (% of remittances on GDP …) -Durable ? Deep economic and financial crisis and deep impact on migration flows and remittances; -Policy implications:

15. Conclusion(2): Policy implications -Migration and development in Arab labour sending countries: Reduce dependancy on remittances: development is « made at home »; Better use of remittances for development ; Use of know how and migrants expertise for development. -Migration policy : departure, return,brain drain …. -Diaspora policy : maintain and strengthen links with origin country. Conclusion :reduce dependancy of development on migration and remittances; use migration and remittances for development.