1. 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

2. 2 Wilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual Plan What are estimated emissions and pollutant concentrations? What are health risks? What do the results mean? Can I trust them? Emissions Modeling Input Data Analysis Model Evaluation Health Risk Assessment Results and Risk Communication AssessmentEvaluation Meteorology Uncertainty Analysis August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

3. 3 Status Update - Emissions Inventory Industrial-Commercial FacilitiesIndustrial-Commercial Facilities –Inventory complete and has received QA/QC –Evaluation expected to be complete for next meeting –Modeling has been initiated On-Road SourcesOn-Road Sources –Exhaust emissions estimated –Running evaporative loses, and on-road dust not yet quantified –Modeling in progress –Inventory evaluation not yet initiated. August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

4. 4 Status Update - Emissions Inventory PortsPorts –State-of-science inventories: best in the world –Los Angeles data expected December 2003. Includes: All off-road equipment at marine terminals All off-road equipment at marine terminals Harbor Craft - detailed load estimates (on-board survey) Harbor Craft - detailed load estimates (on-board survey) Ocean-going vessels - 50 ships boarded. Stack data and engine load measurements directly from ships. Ocean-going vessels - 50 ships boarded. Stack data and engine load measurements directly from ships. Railroads - Electronic engine records for 18 locomotives on standard routes. Railroads - Electronic engine records for 18 locomotives on standard routes. On-Road Trucks - Idling and movement estimates all terminals On-Road Trucks - Idling and movement estimates all terminals –Long Beach data expected December 2003 Covers all dockside emissions - POLA methods Covers all dockside emissions - POLA methods Ocean-side - allocate existing inventories using Warfinger data Ocean-side - allocate existing inventories using Warfinger data August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

5. 5 Micro-scale Wilmington Modeling Protocol Developing new protocol specific to WilmingtonDeveloping new protocol specific to Wilmington –Improvements based on Barrio Logan –Expanded Protocol for improved model evaluation August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

6. 6 Previous Work – Barrio Logan Study Modeling Approach for the Wilmington Air Quality Study Regional Scale Modeling Details Model selection Modeling Domains and Time Period Emission Inputs Meteorology (models, data, model evaluation) Initial and boundary conditions Air quality model pre-testing Other Model Evaluations Micro-scale Scale Modeling Details Emissions Modeling Domain and Time Period Inputs for Micro-scale Modeling Model Performance Evaluation Regional model evaluation (performance for ozone, for toxics, sensitivity simulations) Micro-scale model evaluation Uncertainty Analysis Combining Micro-scale and Regional Model Results Zero-out approach, Tracers approach, Other approaches Modeling Protocol - Overview August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

7. 7 WAQS – Micro-scale Modeling August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board ISCST3, AERMOD and CALPUFF for point and area sources, CALINE and ISCST3 for mobile on-road sources

8. 8 Wilmington Tracer Study Elevated ReleaseElevated Release –Release Location: LADWP Power Plant in Wilmington –Objective formulate and evaluate a short-range dispersion model applicable to elevated sources in urban areas formulate and evaluate a short-range dispersion model applicable to elevated sources in urban areas to extend the limited databases for evaluating the performance of short-range dispersion to extend the limited databases for evaluating the performance of short-range dispersion models in urban areas. –Schedule pilot study – 09/2003 pilot study – 09/2003 main field study – main field study – summer 2004 –Typical tracer dispersion patternfrom LADWP August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

9. 9 Wilmington Monitoring Study Study planned for Fall-Winter 2003-2004Study planned for Fall-Winter 2003-2004 –One stationary, 2-3 portable sites Each portable site at a single location for two weeks Each portable site at a single location for two weeks –Focus on diesel PM - Qualitative measurement No direct surrogate for diesel - requires innovative approach No direct surrogate for diesel - requires innovative approach Direct-Reading: Black Carbon, Carbon Monoxide, Total PAH Direct-Reading: Black Carbon, Carbon Monoxide, Total PAH Hypothesis: BC/CO and PAH should be higher in areas that are impacted by diesel PM than in non-impacted areas Hypothesis: BC/CO and PAH should be higher in areas that are impacted by diesel PM than in non-impacted areas Sites not yet determined Sites not yet determined –Ports conducting a separate, longer-term study In conjunction with Desert Research Institute, SAIC In conjunction with Desert Research Institute, SAIC Use chemical mass balance on elemental and OC/EC measurements Use chemical mass balance on elemental and OC/EC measurements August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board

10. 10Conclusion Neighborhood assessment objectives:Neighborhood assessment objectives: –Evaluate neighborhood level emissions, exposures, and health risks in a region Wilmington objective is refined assessmentWilmington objective is refined assessment –Study is designed to improve modeling methods –Can’t be implemented on a statewide basis Statewide ProtocolStatewide Protocol –Describes implementation of NAP methods - statewide –Learn from refined studies Which sources are important? Which sources are important? Which modeling approaches are feasible? Which modeling approaches are feasible? What do model results mean? What do model results mean? August 27, 2003California Air Resources Board