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Connecticut Data: Implications for Higher Education Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education (August 13, 2013)

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Presentation on theme: "Connecticut Data: Implications for Higher Education Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education (August 13, 2013)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Connecticut Data: Implications for Higher Education Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education (August 13, 2013)

2 Overview Population change Population Change, Enrollment, Completions and Educational Attainment Important Indicators College Readiness Student Success Affordability Innovation and Economic Development Equity 2

3 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 1900 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 3

4 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 1950 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 4

5 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 1980 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5

6 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 1990 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 6

7 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2000 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7

8 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2010 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8

9 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2020 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9

10 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2030 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10

11 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2040 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 11

12 Population Change – United States US Population By Age and Sex, 2050 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 12

13 Population Change – Connecticut Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 13

14 Population Change – Connecticut Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2000 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 14

15 Population Change – Connecticut Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2010 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 15

16 Population Change – Connecticut Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2020 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 16

17 Population Change – Connecticut Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2030 Men Women Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 17

18 United States Population Change U.S. Population Change in U.S. Population (from 2010) 20-2470+20-2470+ 2010 21,779,48027,968,034-- 2020 21,799,19336,943,962 19,713 8,975,928 2030 24,191,40951,711,1442,411,92923,743,110 2040 26,408,19262,249,5384,628,71234,281,504 2050 28,171,43667,004,4466,391,95639,036,412 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 18

19 Connecticut Population Change Connecticut Population Change in CT Population (from 2010) 20-2470+20-2470+ 2010 233,040369,177-- 2020 215,023457,048-18,017 87,871 2030 198,927585,871-34,113216,694 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau 19

20 Connecticut Population Age 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011 20 Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999, 2000-2010, 2011

21 Implications of Population Change Shift in budget priorities from education to health care Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan 21

22 CT Public High School Graduates 1970-2023 22

23 CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount 23

24 CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates 24

25 CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years) 25

26 CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time) 26

27 CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment 27

28 CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions 28 * Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

29 CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions (-2 years) 29 * Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion

30 CT Educational Attainment, Ages 25-44 Pop. 25 to 44 years Educational AttainmentNPct Less than 9th grade26,5243.0 9th to 12th grade, no diploma53,2185.9 High school graduate, GED, or alternative217,32624.3 Some college, no degree171,99919.2 Associate's degree68,0977.6 Bachelor's degree217,28424.3 Graduate or professional degree140,68515.7 Total895,133100.0 Attained Associate's Degree or Higher426,06647.6 At least HS diploma, no college degree389,32543.5 30 Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.

31 CT High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity 31 Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)

32 CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity 32 Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012) Pct Associate’s or Higher

33 CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity 33 Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012) Pct Associate’s or Higher

34 Undergraduate Completions by Race/Ethnicity 34 *** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not be comparable; interpret with caution

35 Graduate Student Enrollment 35

36 Graduate Student Enrollment 36

37 Graduate Degree Completions 37

38 College Readiness CT Community Colleges 38 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in 2013..

39 Student Success -Time to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry StatusAverage YearsState Rank Certificate-Seeking Full-Time3.414 out of 26 Part-Time5.018 out of 26 Associate’s-Seeking Full-Time4.319 out of 28 Part-Time5.618 out of 28 Bachelor’s-Seeking Full-Time4.4*7 out of 29* Part-Time5.2*8 out of 29* 39 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013. *Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

40 Student Success - Credits to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry StatusAverage CreditsState Rank Certificate-Seeking Full-Time7721 out of 25 Part-Time7021 out of 25 Associate’s-Seeking Full-Time8416 out of 28 Part-Time8519 out of 28 Bachelor’s-Seeking Full-Time125*2 out of 29* Part-Time115*2 out of 28* 40 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013. *Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.

41 Affordability – Student Charges 41

42 State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars 42 Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)

43 State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars 43 Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)

44 Distance Learning 44

45 Distance Learning 45

46 Closing Observations Fewer 18-24 year olds  Increased competition Shift to serving older students Downward pressure on revenues Historical patterns of success will not meet attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina) Contextual Opportunities College Readiness Student Success Affordability / sustainable financing model Innovative models for learning & teaching Equity in outcomes 46

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