1. Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

2. Demographic Change in the West Midlands New Challenges in the new Millennium Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

3. Outline Step change in population growth 2001-2011 The household – population relationship Changed geography of growth Ageing – an ongoing story Future uncertain? – Limitations of data and projections Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

4. 2011 Census Confirmed that population growing rapidly Found population was greater than expected Implies past estimates of migration inaccurate Most data yet to come – cross tabulations (tenure by age etc) – migration and commuting Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

5. 1971-2001 Limited population growth post baby boom – Background changes Age structure Intergenerational succession Action elsewhere – Social, and household change – Policies - Right to Buy – Population explosion in cars – Collapse of mass manufacturing employment Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

6. Population & Household Growth West Midlands 1971-2001 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

7. Drivers of Change? West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

8. 1971-2001 Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

9. 2001-2011 Take-off in population growth – International migration – More Births – Fewer Deaths Slowdown in household formation? Changing geography of demographic trends Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

10. International Migration Difficult to Define Measure But Clear change in order of magnitude since mid 1990s Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

11. Natural Change 1971-2011 (England) Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

12. Population & Households West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

13. 2001-2011 Metropolitan resurgence Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

14. Drivers of metropolitan surge International migration More Births Higher education boom Reduced migration outflow? – Revised data awaited – Regeneration/city living/strategy? – Static housing market? Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

15. International Migration Census confirms immigration’s role in recent growth Metropolitan focus Revised data on flows awaited Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

16. National Insurance Numbers for overseas nationals 2010-11 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

17. More Births in the cities Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

18. Household growth 1991-2011 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

19. Households & Population 2001-2011 Geographical contrasts Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

20. Households past & projected growth Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

21. Ageing: Living Longer Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

22. Ageing: Shadow of the Baby Booms (England) Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

23. Age Changes 2001-2011 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

24. Projected changes :working age 2011-2021 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

25. 2011 Older Population Older persons form a higher percentage of population in rural areas. Projected to increase 2011-2021 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

26. Older population Past, present projected Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

27. 2011 -Interim Population Projections – beware Base population updated in light of Census Unrevised migration, birth and death rates (same as 2010-based) ONS have issued health warnings Paradoxical local results :e.g. Birmingham Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

28. Conclusions Take-off in population growth since 2001 Shift in geography of pressure to metropolitan Population growth outstrips household growth for first time in decades Slowdown in propensity to form households Geographical differences in age structures Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence