1. DWAF (July 2004) Managing Economic and Demographic Information for Modelling Brendon Wolff-Piggott Independent Specialist Consultant DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY User Group Forum 1 July, 2004

2. DWAF (July 2004) 1.Background 2.Opportunities 3.Current and envisaged systems - Baseline information management - Managing future estimates 4.Summary Structure

3. DWAF (July 2004) BACKGROUND

4. Information Management in DWAF Management Decision-making Source InformationProcessed Information Source Information Systems Processed Information Systems External Data Raw Data Information Warehouse CD: IM D: WRPS

5. DWAF (July 2004) Minor dams Ground water Reservoir SFRAs Ecology Irrigation Urban Industrial Rural Typical water resource system Runoff

6. DWAF (July 2004) Minor dams Ground water Reservoir SFRAs Ecology Irrigation Urban Industrial Rural Study Identifies Additional Information Runoff

7. DWAF (July 2004) OPPORTUNITIES

8. l Baseline data sets exist e.g. Census l Planning estimates of long-term economic and demographic scenarios related to water use have been made l Detailed studies can provide additional info l Water Services estimates current population using the Census l Useful for national and catchment strategy modelling and planning Opportunities

9. DWAF (July 2004) CURRENT AND ENVISAGED SYSTEMS

10. DWAF (July 2004) Current and Envisaged Systems

11. DWAF (July 2004) Economic and Demographic IMS in the Modelling Framework

12. DWAF (July 2004) BASELINE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

13. DWAF (July 2004) l Information collected for different purposes l Often not easy to build on – Different boundaries – Boundaries changes over time – Assumptions not stated l Relationship to catchments not in data Issues to address

14. DWAF (July 2004) Information Sources

15. DWAF (July 2004) Example of Boundary Issues

16. DWAF (July 2004) Matching Different Information ? Census Planning Estimates Water Services Info

17. DWAF (July 2004) Proposed System Capabilities: Population and Socio-economic IMS l Based on Census 2001 l All data sets should be represented as adjustments to the Census l Metadata tracked for each data set l Adjusted Census data aggregated as needed l Visual displays important for comparison of data

18. DWAF (July 2004) MANAGING FUTURE ESTIMATES

19. DWAF (July 2004) Managing future estimates l Review needed of Planning Estimates against Census 2001 l Next census due in 2011 l Sample surveys, expert workshops and other methods should be identified l Communication with other Directorates and Departments should be supported

20. DWAF (July 2004) 2025 2015 2005 1995 Demographic and Economic Indicators Planning Estimates

21. DWAF (July 2004) Proposed System Capabilities: Population Projection IMS l Draws baseline population and socio-economics from PesIMS l Baseline population distributions “grown” to match estimated future totals (e.g. ASSA 2002 provincial results) l Future distributions then revised based on factors such as estimated future GGP, transportation network density etc. l “Scenario manager” to track all inputs to develop a future projection, and supports sensitivity analysis l Visual displays important l Results stored in PesIMS

22. DWAF (July 2004) Example Output 1 National Scenarios of Population Growth (HIV/AIDS impact) 40000000

23. DWAF (July 2004) Example Output 2 Population Growth in Categories 40000000

24. DWAF (July 2004) SUMMARY

25. Summary l Several country-wide data sets exist l Establishment of IMSs would provide common basis for modelling/planning l Results from more detailed studies could be incorporated l Two systems are envisaged to support modelling dynamically l Potential for greatly improved communication and information management

26. DWAF (July 2004) Work in progress – feedback appreciated!

27. DWAF (July 2004) END