1. RURAL HOUSEHOLDS AND DROUGHT IN THE SAHEL REGION OF WEST AFRICA: VULNERABILITY AND EFFECTIVE MITIGATION MEASURES. An AIACC Funded Project (AF 92) Principal Investigator Dr. A. A. Adepetu, CERHR, University of Jos, Nigeria Mali Country Coordinator Dr. Abou Berthe, Institut d’Economie Rurale, Mali Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d’Economie Rural C/o Ministere du Developpement Rural, Mali

2. Study Area A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara desert and the savanna regions to the south. A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial variability. A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the south. North-south stratification of social systems, northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures largely practice sedentary agriculture.

3. Aim of Study To identify vulnerable groups and determine the factors that shape their vulnerability and adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Focus of Study Sustainable Livelihood in Selected Rural Communities in Nigeria and Mali. Places can only be ascribed a vulnerability ranking in the context of the people who occupy them

4. Why Sustainable Livelihood?  Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.  Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’.  Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon related to a human value system.

5. Project Framework Key Climatic Variables Risk Assessment Adaptation Strategies Selection of Study Sites Stakeholders Non Climatic Variables Vulnerability Model Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios Coping Threshold IPCC AIACC Capacity Building

6. Major Publication Determinants of Household Vulnerability and Adaptation to Drought in the Sahel Other Possible Publications Local knowledge and perception of droughts Vulnerability pathways – who escapes and who remains Gender differences in drought vulnerability in the Sahel Spatial Dynamics of vulnerability using GIS

7. Data Collection Types of Data Climatic Socioeconomic Environmental/Ecological Sources of Data Secondary Sources Participatory Rural Appraisal Questionnaire Survey

8. Key Analyses  Define Current Vulnerability: Using a combination of “indicator” approaches. Ecosystem indicators i.e., agro-ecological zones; climatic variables including rainfall patterns and major droughts; soils status; extent of desertification; siltation rates; vegetation types and cover, etc. Socio-economic indicators i.e., the nature of enterprises; income sources and their distribution; migration and other demographic factors; employment; human health indicators (e.g., mortality rates); animal health indicators; rights, including grazing, land-tenure, tree tenure and land-use. Political indicators i.e., the nature of government; the extent of centralization and decentralization of political authority (i.e. local self-government); system of procurement of goods and services including trade, and financial flows to communities.

9.  Rank Households and individuals into vulnerability classes based on their degree of vulnerability. Variables considered to build the vulnerability indicators are labeled x j, the subscript j representing the household, and x the variable. First, we have to define x*, the acceptable value for variable x obtained from the communities using ethnographic survey methods. Second, we define an indicator of success in obtaining, for variable x, the level defined for x*. Third, we compute c xj an index of failure in obtaining x* for household j,

10. The C x are normalized between –1 and +1 to allow comparison. To obtain this ideal range for the C xj, each variable is normalized between its minimum and maximum value (for all households and subgroups). Put in other terms, one can interpret the C xj as a distance between current conditions and the desired future condition defined by x*. Households and groups will then be ranked in terms of their degree of vulnerability as highly vulnerable, vulnerable and not vulnerable.

11.  Develop a vulnerability model based on a spatial ordered logit specification. The ordered logit model is used when the outcome variable is categorized on an ordinal scale as in our case. This estimates the contributions of independent variables to the probability of belonging to each class of vulnerability as well as the probability of a person belonging to each class of probability

12.  Project future vulnerabilities using trajectories and transition probabilities The Markov chain framework allow investigators to answer different questions about the dynamics of systems: If the system is in state, what are the chances that it will be in some state after some time ? How much time does the system will spend in each state, in average? Are there any possibilities, that while going from a state to, it transits through another state ?

13. V1V2V3V4V5 Transitional Probability - Example

14.  From model parameters and from stakeholder analysis, evaluate adaptation options.  Empirical and Qualitative models of Adaptation Vulnerability Fertilizer use Access to resources

15. Issues to Incorporate from Workshop  Strong Stakeholder Involvement  Use of GIS in Vulnerability analyses and mapping  Autonomous and Planned Adaptation

16. Ecosystem indicators i.e., agro-ecological zones; climatic variables including rainfall patterns and major droughts; soils status; extent of desertification; siltation rates; vegetation types and cover, etc. Socio-economic indicators i.e., the nature of enterprises; income sources and their distribution; migration and other demographic factors; employment; human health indicators (e.g., mortality rates); animal health indicators; rights, including grazing, land-tenure, tree tenure and land-use. Political indicators i.e., the nature of government; the extent of centralization and decentralization of political authority (i.e. local self-government); system of procurement of goods and services including trade, and financial flows to communities. Indicators of Livelihood Vulnerabilities

17. To be done using Participatory Approaches involving sample criteria: multiple vulnerability (ecological, political, economic, social, etc.) a community that is representative of communities in arid and semi-arid lands, for example, population density relative to resource base and socio-economic variation communities that have experienced significant internal and external changes in the recent past (10 - 15 years) and have adapted. Selection of Study Sites

18. Adaptive Capacity  Ecosystem biomass, species and water availability and access (Biomass availability is a function of herd species composition, i.e. mix of cattle, sheep, and goats. Is herd mix a survival strategy? Is the strategy sustainable? What about the composition of human diet as an indication of ecosystem stress?) indicator species vegetative cover - note seasonal variations water quality and availability as indicators of ecosystem health

19.  Socio-economic infrastructure, credit, labor incidence of animal disease commodity markets - links to foreign markets, procurement, zoning and other restrictions