1. Greenhouse Effect The Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere,
and some is absorbed and
re-emitted in all
directions by
greenhouse gas
molecules. The
effect of this
is to warm
the Earth’s
surface and
the lower
atmosphere.
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the
Earth and the
atmosphere
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
atmosphere
Infrared radiation is emitted
from the Earth’s Surface
Most radiation is absorbed by the
Earth’s surface and warms it

2. Carbon Dioxide Concentrations Mauna Loa
Parts per million
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Source: Keeling and Whorf, 1999

3. Examples of Greenhouse Gases Affected by Human Activities
CO2 CH N2O
Pre-industrial concentration 288 ppmv 848 ppbv 285 ppbv
Concentration in ppmv 1800 ppbv 312 ppbv
100 year Global Warming Potential
Atmospheric lifetime (years) a 12b 120
ppmv = part per million volume; ppbv = part per billion volume
a No single lifetime for CO2 can be defined because of the different rates of uptake by different processes.
b Defined as an adjustment time which takes into account the indirect effects of methane on its own lifetime.
Sources: IPCC 1995, CDIAC (Manua Loa, Siple Station, Law Dome “DE08”, AGAGE, and
Law Dome “BHD” data)

4. Temperature Change and CO2 Concentrations
Temperature Change (oC) -8 -4 -2 2 4
150
100 50
200
250
300
400
500
600
700
750
Current
Level
Thousands of years ago
CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere (Antarctic Ice Core)
Temperature changes compared
to the present temperature

5. Global Mean Land and Sea Surface Temperature: 1880-1999
Temperature Change (oC)
Temperatures expressed relative to average.
Data Source:

6. Temperature Trends: 1901 to 1998
Red circles reflect warming; Blue circles reflect cooling
All Stations/Trends displayed regardless of statistical significance.
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA

7. Precipitation Trends: 1901 to 1998
Green circles reflect increasing precipitation; Brown circles reflect decreasing precipitation
All Stations/Trends displayed regardless of statistical significance.
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA

8. Projected Temperature
14oC
15oC
16oC
17oC
19oC
18oC
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
Global average temperature
5 year average temperature
IPCC high estimate
IPCC best estimate
IPCC low estimate

9. GFDL Model Results for 2xCO2
Surface Air Warming:
GFDL Model Results for 2xCO2 -5 5 10 15 20 25
Degrees (oF)
Source: Manabe and Stouffer, 1994

10. GFDL Model Results for 4xCO2
Surface Air Warming:
GFDL Model Results for 4xCO2 -5 5 10 15 20 25
Degrees (oF)
Source: Manabe and Stouffer, 1994

11. Percent Reduction in Summer Soil Moisture:
GFDL Model Results for 2xCO2 and 4xCO2
2xCO2
4xCO2 10 20 30 40 50 60
Percent
Source: Manabe and Stouffer, 1994

12. Changes in March Sea Ice Thickness1 2 3 4 5
Thickness (meters)
Control
4xCO2
Source: Manabe and Stouffer, 1994

13. Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health Impacts
Weather-related Mortality
Infectious Diseases
Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture Impacts
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Climate Changes
Forest Impacts
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic rangeof forests
Forest Health and Productivity
Temperature
Precipitation
Water Resource Impacts
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Increased competion for water
Sea Level Rise
Impacts on Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches
Inundate coastal lands
Costs to defend coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species

14. Ways Climate Change Can Affect Human Health
Mediating Process
Health Outcomes
DIRECT
Thermal extremes
(e.g., heatwaves)
Changes in heat- and cold-related
illnesses and deaths
Deaths, injuries, psychological
disorders; damage to public health infrastructure
Other extreme weather events
(floods, storms, etc.)
CLIMATE
CHANGE:
TEMPERATURE,
PRECIPITATION,
AND WEATHER
INDIRECT
DISTURBANCES OF
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Geographic ranges and incidence of
vector-borne diseases
Geographic range and activity of
vectors and infective parasites
Altered local ecology of water-borne
and food-borne infective agents
Altered food productivity, and
associated pests and diseases
Changed incidence of diarrheal and
certain other infectious diseases
Regional malnutrition and hunger,
impaired child growth and development
Injuries, risks of infectious disease (due
to migration, crowding, contaminated
drinking water), psychological disorders
Sea level rise, population displace-
ment, and damage to infrastructure
Levels air pollution, including
pollens and spores
Asthma and allergic disorders; acute and
chronic respiratory disorders and deaths
Source: Adapted from IPCC, 1995.

15. Deaths Associated with the July 1966 Heat Wave, New York City
Days from May to August 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
100
110
120
130 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Standardized Mortality
Rate per 100,000
Source: WHO, 1996

16. Probability that 4 Days in June Exceed City’s Temperature Threshold
100 80 60 40 20
Dallas
Atlanta
Detroit
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Cincinnati
New York
Kansas City
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Current
UKMO
GFDL
Source: Probabilities of Temperature Extremes in the U.S.A,
Version 1, NCDC, 1999; Kalkstein, 1989

17. Average Annual Excess Weather-Related Mortality for
1993, 2020 and 2050 Climate
1500
1250
750
1000
600
750
450
500
300
250
150
300
250
Chicago
New York City 60
200 50
150
200 40
100
300 30
160 50
250 20
120
200 10
Los
Angeles
150 80
Phoenix
100 40 50
Atlanta
Dallas
1993
2020
2050
Sources: Kalkstein and Green (1997);
Chestnut et al.(1995)
Note: Includes both summer and winter mortality.
Assumes full acclimation to changed climate.
Includes population growth.
GFDL Climate Change Scenario 4

18. Human Health: Potential Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases
Population Likelihood of
at risk Present altered distribution
Disease Vector (millions) Distribution with warming
Malaria mosquito 2400 (sub)tropics 
Schistosomiasis water snail (sub)tropics 
Filariasis mosquito 1094 (sub)tropics 
Onchocerciasis black fly Africa/Latin  (river blindness) America
African trypano- tsetse fly tropical Africa  somiasis (sleeping sickness)
Dengue mosquito (sub)tropics 
Yellow fever mosquito tropical South  America & Africa
 - Likely
  - Very Likely
 - Highly Likely
Source: WHO (1996) 5

19. Adaptation and Other Health Concerns
Measures to minimize health impacts include:
improved monitoring, surveillance, and control programs
disaster preparedness and response capability
wider use of protective technologies (sea walls and levees,
water purification, vaccination)
public education
early warning systems, improved use of climate forecasts
Technical solutions may themselves pose health risks
e.g., pesticides to control for insect vectors
Potential reductions in biodiversity may result in losses of substances that can cure disease or relieve pain

20. Climate Change and Air Quality
Interactions Between
Climate Change and Air Quality
Emissions
Anthropogenic
Biogenic
Concentrations
Secondary Pollutants
Affected by Weather
Conditions
Temperature
Precipitation
Windspeed and
Direction
Health Responses
Combined Exposure
to Stressful Weather
and Air Pollution

21. Meteorological Conditions Present on
Ozone Exceedance Days
(Chicago, )
Parameter
Threshold Value
Maximum Daily Temperature >= 80oF
Average Daily Wind Speed < 10.5 mph
Precipitation None between 7am and 3pm
Solar Radiation >410 langleys/day
Notes: Present on 81% of ozone exceedance days in the Chicago area.
Remaining exceedance days met 3 of 4 criteria.
Source: Kolaz and Swinford, 1990

22. Known Adverse Effects of Air Pollutants
Health Effects
Acute Respiratory Illnesses and Asthma Aggravation PM, O3, NO2, SO2
Respiratory Hospital Admissions PM, O3
Cardio-Pulmonary Effects (e.g., stroke) CO, Pb
Development of Chronic Respiratory Disease PM, O3
Cancer Air Toxics
Premature Mortality PM, O3, SO2, Pb
Reproductive Effects Air Toxics
Direct Economic Effects
Lost Work Days PM, O3
Decreased Worker Productivity O3
Material Damage & Soiling PM, O3, SO2
Crop Yield Loss O3
Commercial Fishery Harvest Loss Nitrogen Deposition
Forestry Yield Loss O3
Ecological Effects
Acidic Depostion SO2, NO2
Eutrophication Nitrogen Deposition
Wetland Preservation Nitrogen Deposition, SO2

23. Regional 50% Probability Estimates of Sea Level Rise in 2100 and 2200
Seattle, WA
Portland, ME
New York, NY
San Fransisco, CA
Los Angeles
Charleston, SC
Miami Beach, FL
Grand Isle, LA
Estimates are in inches.
Source: U.S. EPA (1995).

24. U.S. Coastal Lands at Risk from a 20-inch Sea Level Rise in 2100
4000
3000
Square Miles
2000
1000
Drylands
Wetlands
-1000
Northeast
Mid-Atlantic
South
Atlantic
S & W
Florida
Louisiana
Rest of Gulf
Coast
West
Source: U.S. EPA (1989). 2 18 7 14

25. 1938 1980 Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (Maryland) Kilometers
Trapping Unit
Marsh
Open Water
Upland N
Kilometers

26. Louisiana: Shoreline Change after a 20-Inch Rise in Sea Level
Lake Charles
Lafayette
Baton Rouge
Morgan City
Houma
New
Orleans
Gulf of Mexico
Land Lost
Source: U.S. EPA, 1989.

27. Water Resources: Regional Vulnerability
Arid
Western
River
Basins
Pacific
Northwest
Great
Plains
Great
Lakes
South-
east
North-
east
Use
California
Mississippi
Irrigation F F F F F
Thermal
power F F
Industrial F F F
Municipal/
domestic F F F F
Water quality F F F F F F
Navigation F F F
Flood control F F F F F
Hydropower F F F F
Recreation F F
Source: U.S. EPA (1989) 2

28. Changes in Agricultural Yields 2
Changes in Agricultural Yields 2.5oF Warming; 7% Increase in Precipitation; 530 ppmv CO2
Change in Wheat Yield
Change in Corn Yield
Percent Change
Source: Rosenzweig, 1995
-30
-20
-10
+10
+20
+30
>+30

29. Agricultural Resources: Potential Change in Grain Yield due to Doubled CO2
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
Percent of Change in Yield
Based on GISS model; physiological CO2 effects included
Source: Rosenzweig and Hillel (1993) 1 1

30. Agricultural Resources: Increase in Global Population at Risk from Hunger
-100
100
200
300
400
GISS
GFDL
Millions
UKMO
Without Adaptation
With Adaptation
Change in Number of People at Risk of Hunger
Source: Strzepak and Smith (1995) 4

31. Change in Potential Vegetation for 2050 Climate Scenario OSU Climate
Current Climate
Conifer Forest
Broadleaf Forest
Savanna/Woodland
Shrub/Woodland
Grassland
UKMO Climate
Arid Lands
Source: Neilson, 1995 13

32. Current and Projected Ranges of Sugar Maple
Prediction based on increased
temperature
Prediction based on increased
temperature and moisture reduction
Present Range
Overlap
Predicted Range
Source: Redrawn from Davis and Zabinski, 1992

33. Loss of Habitat for Brown Trout from a Doubling of CO2 - 2050
Not included
in analysis *
1-49% Loss
50-100% Loss
* Dual screening criteria used for inclusion: 1) Thermal modeling predicts
suitability and 2) Fish presence in 10% or more of State’s water bodies.
Source: EPA, 1995
GFDL Climate Change Scenario 11 1 8 15

34. Bobolink Bird Distribution
Low Density
Medium Density
High Density
Source: Schneider and Root, 1997.

35. IPCC Second Assessment

36. IPCC Second Assessment Report Conclusions
Climate has changed over the past century
Global mean surface air temperature has increased .5-1o F
Global sea level has risen 4-10 inches
Global precipitation over land has increased 1%
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC, 1995)
Climate is expected to continue to change in the future
Projected temperature increase of 3.6oF by 2100 ( oF)
Projected sea level rise of 20 inches by 2100 (6-38 inches)
Likely increase in precipitation intensity

37. There are still many uncertainties
Future emissions, biogeochemical cycling of GHGs and aerosols, and future concentrations
Representation of climate feedback processes in models
clouds, convection and precipitation, sea ice, vegetation, oceans
Detection and attribution
Non-linear responses (“Surprises”) and severe storms
Regional patterns of change