1. EMERGENCE, ANTICIPATION AND MULTISIMULATION: BASES FOR CONFLICT SIMULATION TUNCER ÖREN M&SNet (McLeod Modeling and Simulation Network) SITE, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada oren@site.uottawa.ca FRANCESCO LONGO M&SNet (MSC-LES: Modeling & Simulation Center - Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions) University of Calabria, Italy F.LONGO@UNICAL.IT Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 1 20th European Modeling & Simulation Symposium (EMSS’08) September 17 – 19, 2008 Campora S. Giovanni, Calabria, Italy 20th European Modeling & Simulation Symposium (EMSS’08) September 17 – 19, 2008 Campora S. Giovanni, Calabria, Italy

2. Why Simulation of Conflict Processes? 1.To understand the mechanisms of conflict (to avoid/(to induce), to manage) 1.To evaluate effects of different parameters on conflicts (to manage) 2.To provide experience to (future) decision makers to train them to manage conflicts. 1.To understand the mechanisms of conflict (to avoid/(to induce), to manage) 1.To evaluate effects of different parameters on conflicts (to manage) 2.To provide experience to (future) decision makers to train them to manage conflicts. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept. 2

3. Hypothesis Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: multi-aspect systems in general, and conflict processes and conflict management training, in particular. Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: multi-aspect systems in general, and conflict processes and conflict management training, in particular. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 3

4. Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: multi-aspect systems in general, and conflict processes and for conflict management training, in particular. Multisimulation is a methodology which can be appropriate for the simulation studies of: multi-aspect systems in general, and conflict processes and for conflict management training, in particular. At this early stage of the research we offer only the rationale to support the hypothesis Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 4 Hypothesis

5. Some facts about conflict processes Based on: Approaches to simulate conflict processes Nature of conflict processes Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 5

6. Some facts about conflict processes Based on: Approaches to simulate conflict processes 1.Reactive 2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory Nature of conflict processes Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 6

7. Some facts about conflict processes Approaches to simulate conflict processes: 1.Reactive Different (aspects) of the reactions based on: Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 7 aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background

8. Some facts about conflict processes Approaches to simulate conflict processes: 2. Deliberative Different perception(s) based on deliberations modulated by: Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 8 aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background

9. Some facts about conflict processes Approaches to simulate conflict processes: 3. Anticipatory (current image(s) of future) Different anticipations based on: Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 9 aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background aspects of the conflict severity of the conflict personality of the affected people, of the decision makers emotions cultural background

10. Based on: Approaches to simulate conflict processes 1.Reactive 2.Deliberative 3.Anticipatory Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 10 We can say that conflict processes are multi-aspect.

11. Nature to conflict processes Conflict processes are highly non-linear: f(a+b) ≠ f(a) + f(b) Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 11

12. Nature to conflict processes Conflict processes are different than just complicated systems; they are complex systems. Complex systems, hence conflicts have emergence. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 12

13. Emergence ≠ appearance Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 13 Emergence is: "the arising of novel and coherent structures, patterns and properties during the process of self-organization of complex systems."

14. Nature to conflict processes In non-linear systems: “Similar causes can have different effects and different causes similar effects; small changes of causes can have large effects whereas large changes can also only result in small effects but nonetheless it can also be the case that small causes have small effects and large causes large effects. Emergence is based on non-linear causality” (Arshinov & Fuchs, p. 7) Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 14

15. Emerged states and emerged transitions (which can have fuzzy representations) in a state machine Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 15 a b c dd e f gh

16. At a crossroad: Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 16 At a crossroad several roads to take. Similarly, after an interruption of the simulation study, several simulations can be performed by using different models and/or experimental conditions. The simulations could be sequential; however, there are advantages of making them simultaneous. (time advantage, resource-sharing parallel studies) At a crossroad several roads to take. Similarly, after an interruption of the simulation study, several simulations can be performed by using different models and/or experimental conditions. The simulations could be sequential; however, there are advantages of making them simultaneous. (time advantage, resource-sharing parallel studies)

17. Multisimulation Multisimulation is a methodology to allow simulation of several aspects of a system simultaneously. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 17

18. Multisimulation Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 18 In some aspects of social system dynamics, during a simulation, completely new conditions may emerge and accordingly, a simulation study may need to be interrupted, models and/or experimental conditions may need to be replaced by a new ones and then the simulation study would resume. In some cases, at the update instant of the simulation study, one may want to continue with two or more models under same or different experimental conditions. In some aspects of social system dynamics, during a simulation, completely new conditions may emerge and accordingly, a simulation study may need to be interrupted, models and/or experimental conditions may need to be replaced by a new ones and then the simulation study would resume. In some cases, at the update instant of the simulation study, one may want to continue with two or more models under same or different experimental conditions.

19. Multisimulation Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 19

20. Multisimulation can also enhance predictive displays (by allowing several simultaneous simulations) Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 20 An agent-based system may also automatically select the “best” command (input) to the system

21. Why use Multisimulation for the Study of Conflict Processes ? 1.To understand the multi-aspect mechanisms of conflicts (to avoid/(to induce), to manage) (by simulating conflict processes under reactive, deliberative, and anticipatory conditions) 1.To evaluate effects of different parameters on conflicts (to manage) 2.To provide experience to (future) decision makers to train them to manage conflicts. 1.To understand the multi-aspect mechanisms of conflicts (to avoid/(to induce), to manage) (by simulating conflict processes under reactive, deliberative, and anticipatory conditions) 1.To evaluate effects of different parameters on conflicts (to manage) 2.To provide experience to (future) decision makers to train them to manage conflicts. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 2008 Sept 21

22. Emergence, Anticipation and Multisimulation: Bases for Conflict Studies © Tuncer Ören 22 Many thanks for your attention!