1. www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/ Building Bluelink Richard Matear, David Griffin, Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller et al. June 2007 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

2. Bluelink: a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the Royal Australian Navy Introduction

3. Bluelink: a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and the Royal Australian Navy Talk Outline Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS Bluelink ReANalysis, BRAN Bluelink High-Resolution Regional Analysis HRRA Bluelink biological modelling Introduction

4. Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM … every 10 th grid point shown  Global configuration of MOM4  Eddy-resolving around Australia  10 m vertical resolution to 200 m, then coarser  Surface fluxes from ECMWF (for reanalyses) Minimum resolution: ~100km ~10km resolution

5. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS  The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model. Influence of sealevel obs at x

6. Ensemble OI : vertical projection of surface observations - similar to multiple linear regression Cross-section of temperature increments Plan view of sea-level increments

7. Cross-section of temperature bkgnd (grey) & analysis (black- colour) Plan view of sea-level increments -> need both SST and SLA.

8. BLUElink Reanalyses Ocean Reanalysis over last 15 years (1992-2006) with focus on Asian-Australian Region Boundary conditions for nested models Physical fields for biogeochemical applications Evaluate strength/weaknesses of ocean monitoring and forecasting systems in Asian-Australian Region (part of GODAE Intercomparison Project) Timor Sea Volume Transports

9. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0 BRAN1.0BRAN1.5BRAN2.0 10/1992-12/20041/2003-6/200610/1992-12/2006 Assimilates along-track SLA, T(Z), S(z) Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE - SST Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE – SST or Rey 1/4 o OISST no rivers Seasonal climatological river fluxes SSS restoring (30 days); SST restoring (30 days) no SSS or SST restoring SSS restoring (30 days in deep water only); no SST restoring ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes ECMWF surface heat and freshwater fluxes; and momentum fluxes from 10 m winds 3 day assimilation cycle7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 1 day relaxation 7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 0.25 day relaxation A few bugsNo known bugs (yet)Fingers crossed

10. BRAN1.0  BRAN1.5  BRAN2.0 BRAN1.0BRAN1.5BRAN2.0 Warm biasNo temperature bias Noticeably discontinuous in time (jumpy, shocks etc) Acceptably continuous (can track features easily) SST errors ~ 2-3 degreesSST errors ~ 0.6-0.8 degrees SLA errors ~ 15 cmSLA errors ~ 8 cm

11. Relocatable Ocean-Atmosphere Model, ROAM Automatic implementation via visual interface of hydrodynamic model (MECO) and atmospheric model (RAMS [CSU]) with minimum user input Forecasts of ocean and atmosphere state out to 3 days Ocean domains of scales down to 100 km x 100 km with resolution down to 2km Boundary Conditions: oLateral ocean boundary information from OFAM oLateral boundary information for atmosphere from LAPS oSurface atmospheric data for ocean from RAMS

12. 1.Present-day climate: BRAN and/or Mk3 simulation (FY 2007/2008) 2.Future scenarios: Mk3 or other IPCCC simulations (FY 2008/2009) OFAM (~10km): Australian Region Responsibility: WAMSI Node 2 (CSIRO) Mk3 or other (~100km): Global Responsibility: CSIRO SHOC (~1km): SW-WA Resp.: WAMSI Node 1 (CSIRO) Multiple Nesting down to sub-km scale SHOC (~1km): GBR Resp.: MTSRF (AIMS, CSIRO) ROMS (~1km): Ningaloo Resp.: WAMSI Node 2 (AIMS/UWA) New Application: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment (WAMSI + MTSRF)

13. Focus on nutrient and carbon cycling in the upper ocean for multi-year simulations Linked to carbon cycling in the ocean ARBGC Model: Nitrogen Cycling in the Photic Zone

14. Figure adapted from Pearce & Griffiths 1991 Possible mechanisms of eddy formation and entrainment of shelf waters. SeaWiFSwith SSHA overlay May 6th 2000

15. Testing the hypothesis in-situ - TIP2000 cruise TIP2000 Cruise

16. ARBCG model: phytoplankton and SST

17. Observed annual mean Chlorophyll 1D assimilation 3-D assimilation Biological data assimilation: model calibration

18. Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance  Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. Public access for registered users: http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research) BLUElink 2: Improving the current forecast system and moving inshore (wave forecasting) New and challenging application outside Bluelink: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment New Funding for Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) - provides an avenue to expand ocean observations (eg. ARGO, Radar systems, Gliders, Moorings ) Summary (I)

19. Summary (II) Present focus on the physical model but desire to expand to biological models A BGC model has been coupled to BLUElink physical model Plan to calibrate biological model by assimilating ocean colour into 1D and 3D biological models Future Needs Sustained biogeochemical observations to support BGC modelling and data assimilation  environmental management  fisheries management  carbon management Thank you!

20. Bluelink ReANalysis, BRAN

21. Thank you

22. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS  Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique

23. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS  Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique  Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S

24. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS  Ensemble OI … sequential assimilation technique  Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S  To constrain the model to match reality, then make a forecast

25. Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS  Multivariate assimilation system:  sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V Single point assimilation …

26. Free-running model:

27. HRRA - Gridded altimetry and SST, statistically projected to depth:

28. BRAN1.0:

29. BRAN1.5 smoother, more realistic, no warm bias

30. BRAN1.5 cf HRRA – 2005

31. Surface Zooplankton

32. Mixed Layer Depth and Phytoplankton Phytoplankton refects a balance between growth and grazing

33. Delivering information on the past, present and future state of the ocean “Ocean Weather” maps providing daily forecasts and information on the open and coastal ocean up to 7 days in advance  Outputs: Operational meso-scale nowcasts and short-range forecasts of upper ocean temperature, salinity and current fields Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over the last 15+ years. Public access for registered users: http://www.marine.csiro.au/dods/nph-dods/dods-data/bluelink (Marine Environment, Ecosystem, Coastal Management, Climate Research) BLUElink 2: Improving the current forecast system and moving inshore (wave forecasting) New and challenging application outside Bluelink: Downscaling of Climate Change in the Marine Environment (MTSRF and WAMSI) Summary (I)

34. Summary (II) BGC model simulations coupled to BLUElink physical model Data Assimilation into 1D and 3D biological model Sustained biogeochemical observations to support BGC modelling and assimilation  environmental management  fisheries management  carbon management Thank you!