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Central Calif. Winegrowers and Calif. Assoc. of Winegrape Growers 2007 Winegrape Symposium Today, Tomorrow and Beyond” “Today, Tomorrow and Beyond” November 28 th and 29 th, 2007 Pardini’s, Fresno, California
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SJV Grapegrowers and the Global Market Place John Ciatti Managing Partner, Ciatti Company San Rafael, CA 415/458-5150 www.ciatti.com
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24 Brokers Worldwide Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, South Africa, USA 10 within California North Coast, Central Coast, Lodi, Central Valley & Foothills Grapes, Juice, Bulk Wine, Case goods, Juice Concentrates, High Proof, Spirits, Storage & Processing Brokers Committed to your Success
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Points to Discuss Sales / Shipment News 2007 Global Harvest Review Export / Import Discussion Future Outlook Questions
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Source: Gomberg Fredrickson Report Wine Shipments YTD (Aug ‘07 ) Wine shipments +1.4% (bottled) 2.1% Overall YTD GFA Premium Wine Index +5% Premium growth offset by losses in economy wines Bulk Exports +11% YTD; Bottled +5% YTD Positive change, Exchange rate effects? California
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Table Wine - Varietal YTD ’07Annual ’06 %CHG Chard+2.1+5.2 Pinot Grigio+13.7+17.9 Cab Sauv+12.9+11.1 Merlot+4.0+1.8 Pinot Noir+26.3+20.3 Zinfandel+10.7+11.6 Grocery Store Scan Data Source: The Nieslen Company Sales $ % CHG YTD ’07 vs YAG
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Table Wine – Price Tier YTD ’07Annual ’06 %CHG < $3-.7-.2 $3-6+4.8+3.6 $6-9+3.5+6.0 $9-12+9.3+11.9 $12-15+15.5+16.3 >$15+15.7+10.5 Grocery Store Scan Data Sales $ % CHG YTD ’07 vs YAG Source: The Nieslen Company
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Source: Gomberg Fredrickson Report Wine Shipments YTD (Aug ‘07) Imports still growing faster than domestic Total imports to US + 12% (bottled +9%, Bulk +44%) (CA > US +1%) Australia bulk down Aug ’07 Spain +12%, Italy +11% and Argentina +90% Imports 30% of all wine consumed in U.S. International Total Market Total US Wine Shipments (Imp & Dom) Up 4% US highly competitive mkt – Highest Margin
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Source: Calif. Dept. of Food & Ag Final Grape Crush Reports Statewide Grape Crush, 1997 – 2007 Est
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Domestic Picture Inventories – moving towards balance Older Reds still in system, whites better Grape Pricing slow to improve Grape Concentrate options not as competitive as raisins Smaller 2007 Vintage should increase optimism for 2008
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USA vs. World USA 8% of Production USA 5% of Vine Acres 7.66B Gals (45M tons) Source: OIV
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Global Winegrape Production 2006 vs 2007
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California Exports 76.46M Gals 94.13M Gals 91.27M Gals 91.85M Gals 440,000 Tons 540,000 Tons 520,000 Tons 525,000 Tons Source: Gomberg Fredrikson Report; State Board of Equalization 565,000 Tons 99.3M Gals
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SJV Export Strengths White Zinfandel Zinfandel Ruby Cabernet Colombard/Whites Competitive Varietals
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Dry White Wine 2006
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Dry White Wine ’06 vs. ‘07
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Dry Red Wine 2006
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Dry Red Wine ’06 vs ‘07
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Cabernet Sauvignon Wine 2006
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Cabernet Sauvignon Wine ’06 vs ‘07
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Chardonnay Wine 2006
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Chardonnay Wine ’06 vs ‘07
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Major Export Mkts for SJV Wines Canada Germany Scandinavia UK Asia
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Imports Key Varieties Pinot Grigio, Pinot Noir, Riesling, Traditional Varieties Worldwide inventories move toward balance due to 2007 crop US Mkt is the most attractive & best Mkt in World Today consumer is exploring and finding options for purchase Currency & Freight
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Currency Exchange Rates 2001$0.52 2002$0.56 2003$0.72 2004$0.77 2005$0.74 2006$0.78 2007$0.87 2001$0.90 2002$0.99 2003$1.20 2004$1.33 2005$1.18 2006$1.32 2007$1.48 AUD 1.00 = USEURO 1.00 = US
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Cost of Ocean Freight Approx. US$0.80 per gal
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What the future holds U.S. & World has thirst for Calif Wines Market continues to grow, support it Activity on grapes should accelerate on demand varieties Consolidation will continue – Global Market We must continue to be competitive to survive Quality is the best option – deliver depth & flavor not sugar Brand Proliferation & Growth
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Thank You for your time and Attention John Ciatti Managing Partner, Ciatti Company T.415/458-5150 www.ciatti.com
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