1. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany European Regional Consultation in Preparation of the EWC II Types of Hazard in Europe Participants: 23 Experts from 10 European Countries, ISDR, UNDP, DKKV, Federal Foreign Office of Germany Needs and Recommendations Regional Report for Europe (Erich Plate) 28 -29 July, Potsdam, Germany Jointly Organised by GFZ, HGF, DKKV Workshop Structure Disaster Patterns and Emerging Issues Advances,Constraints, Case Studies and Best Practices National and European Planning

2. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany Space Weather Storm Surges Floods river floods flash floods Winter Hazards Land Slides Wild Land Fires Storms extra-tropical cyclons (winterstorms) hail storms sting jets tornadoes Earthquakes/Tsunamis Volcanoes from North to South Types of Hazard in Europe Disaster Patterns

3. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany % 80 60 40 20 100 32,8% Casualities 2,5% Economic Losses AfricaAmericaAsiaEuropeOceania Source: Munich Re 2000-2002 Europe (2000-2002): Casualities 1137 Economic Losses 33 billion $ Relative Impact of Natural Disasters Disaster Patterns

4. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany What has happened? Winterstorms 1990 14,8 billion $ River flood 2002 13,5 billion $ Earthquake Italy 1980 12.0 billion $ Winterstorms 1999 11.0 billion $ Flooding/Landslides 2000 8.5 billion $ What is happening? Wild land fires (Mediterranean) 50000 per year 600000 ha/year burned...... What could happen ? Earthquake in Central Europe (Aachen, Cologne, Bonn?) Possible losses > 50 billion $ Mt. Vesuvius Volcanoe eruption more than 300000 people directly threatened...... Heaviest Natural Disasters in Europe Since 1980 Disaster Patterns

5. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany Space weather extremes - major power supply failures - interruptions in telecommunication - increased radiation exposure in aircrafts and spacecrafts - effect on climate change? Influence of Global Warming ? Extra tropical cyclones: -southward shift of paths more severe storms ! Wild land fires: - up to 4 times more often since 1950 - area burned: twice as much as 1970 Landslides: - new type due to melting of permafrost in the Alps Greenhouse gas: - Melting of tundra underground release of methane! New Type of Hazard Disaster Patterns, Emerging Issues

6. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany The Early Warning Chain: Lessons Learned! Constraints, Advances and Shortcomings Advances in Hazard Assessment But: Country Wide Vulnerability- and Risk-Assessment Not Existent But Starting Hazard- Vulnerability- Risk- Assessment Science Science/ Techn. Forecast Response Warning Decision Makers Population Local Authorities Main Shortcomings in the Links Between the EW – Segments! insufficient communication differences in terminology indistinct information flow missing integration of the Local population misunderstandings

7. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany Some Important Features of Scientific and Strategic Planning National and European Planning DFNK: German Research Network for Natural Disasters CEDIM: Centre for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technologies (Germany) Start with regional mapping of natural risks (probability of losses) Establish European Disaster Information Centres EFAS: European Flood Alert System ( Redding, UK) EFFIS: European Forest Fires Information System (JRC, EC) Euras. Experim. Fire Weather Inform. Syst. (GFMC, Can. Forest Serv.) European Severe Storm Centre (proposed) Establish Integrated Earth Observing Systems Int. Charter on Space and Major Disasters GMES: Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security HGF Research Netw. Integrat. Earth Observ. System (Germany) Agree on border crossing action programs for disaster protection IKSR: Int. Comm. for the Safety of the Rhine IKSD: Danube, IKSE: Elbe IKSO: Oder, IKSMS: Mosel Eastern Europe: Move from a military disaster management approach to a civil society approach CEUDIP: Central European Disaster Prevention Forum Initiate harmonisation and standardisation of disaster – and early warning related information and procedures EU-MEDIN: European - Mediterranean Disaster Information Network Civil Contingency Legislation in the UK (2004-4?) Shift part of the responsibility down from the administrative top to the local level

8. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany Needs and Recommendations Improved Data Collection and -Availability Improved Forecasting Models - short term forecasting - effect of global warming? Risk Maps - country wide and European wide - synoptic multitype risk assessment - interaction between science and reinsurance industry Scientific/Techn. Needs Organisational Needs Improved Chain of Warning - clearly defined information- and command chain - local group integration - obtain the confidence of people at risk - interaction between professional/techn. providers and local population Sustained Dialogue at and between various levels and sectors of the early warning chain Common Actions on a European Level - communication - terminology - standardisation and harmonisation - legislation (common benchmarks) - education - training Assessment of EW Efficiency - Cost benefit analysis

9. Regional Consultation Europe Jochen Zschau EWC II, 16. – 18.Oct. 2003, Bonn, Germany Needs and Recommendations International Early Warning Platform Interact with regional and national platforms and foster their establishment Strengthen coordination and cooperation Assist in the dialogue between institutes of all continents Record and support progress in the early warning process Disseminate early warning knowledge Bring together early warning information from different countries Establish links between users and providers Assist in the development of standards for Early warning Build EU-capacity Support the improvement of the chain of warning Provide an early warning discussion forum Further develop networks