1. Simulation of Seasonal and Interannual Variability in the Caspian Sea W. Paul Budgell Dept. of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland Ralf Toumi, Andrew Singleton, Catherine Reifen, James Farley Nicolls Dept. of Physics, Imperial College, London

2. Outline of Talk Background/Motivation ROMS Implementation Forcing Some Results Conclusions/Future work

4. Motivation Regional climate change – but first we must gain confidence on recent history and variability Dynamical downscaling, but after Gildas Cambon’s talk will revisit statistical downscaling Regional coupled environmental model Operational applications in oil spills, localized wave climate, contaminant /salt/aerosol transport

6. Caspian Sea Bathymetry (m)

9. From: Elguindi and Giorgi, Clim. Dyn. 26 (2006) 395-379. CSL in IPCC 20th Century Simulations

10. Projected Changes in CSL From: Elguindi and Giorgi, Clim. Dyn. 26 (2006) 395-379.

17. WRF Simulation Nov. 1996

19. ROMS Set-Up Kate Hedström’s branch Ice dynamics/thermodynamics – shallow Wetting-drying (dcrit = 0.2 m) Sea level is dependent upon (E-P) 4 km resolution 32 and 20 vertical levels Vtransform=2, Vstretching=2 θ s =8, θ b =0.4, h c =10 m

20. ROMS Set-Up Cont’d River inflow specified for 6 largest rivers Atmospheric forcing from ERA40, ERA Interim, or WRF (down-scaling ERA40) Runs for 1958-2001 (ERA40), 1989-2008 (ERA Interim), or 1980-2001 (WRF) Climate sensitivity run with reduced river inflow for 1980-2001 (’2045-2066’)

21. Some Results

22. ROMS Sea Ice Extent

24. SST Comparison

25. Caspian Sea Levels

26. Conclusions/Future Work E-P sea level + wetting/drying + sea ice works Change in surface area important Very sensitive to river runoff WRF higher wind speeds improve evaporation ROMS-WRF coupling needed ROMS-WRF-SWAN coupling needed

27. Job Opportunity Dept. of Physics, Imperial College, London is hiring post-doc to conduct development of Caspian Regional Environmental Model. CREM based on coupled ROMS-WRF-SWAN for the Caspian Sea