1. (c) R. Thompson What is ESTOFEX? What are the goals of ESTOFEX? How are the forecasts created? Difficulties and future work The European Storm Forecast Experiment ECSS2004 León, Spain Presented by Johannes Dahl

2. What is ESTOFEX? ESTOFEX attempts to forecast the likelihood of severe convective storms the likelihood of severe convective storms the occurrence of lightning across Europe the occurrence of lightning across Europe The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of young European initiative of young European meteorologists and meteorology students meteorologists and meteorology students The forecast scheme has originally been adopted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) ECSS2004 León, Spain

3. Goals demonstrate that concepts about severe thunderstorms currently mainly used in the US also work in Europedemonstrate that concepts about severe thunderstorms currently mainly used in the US also work in Europe increase awareness that severe convection can and does occur in all parts of Europeincrease awareness that severe convection can and does occur in all parts of Europe improve knowledge about severe convective storms and their environmentsimprove knowledge about severe convective storms and their environments find out whether an SPC-like guidance role can be played in Europefind out whether an SPC-like guidance role can be played in Europe ECSS2004 León, Spain

4. To be severe, a convective storm has to produce at least one of the following phenomena: Wind gusts in excess of 25 m/s (50 knots) Hail with a diameter of more than 2 cm Tornado Severe wind gusts that are not caused by convective storms are not considered in the forecasts! Definition of a severe convective storm as used by ESTOFEX ECSS2004 León, Spain www.estofex.org

5. An ESTOFEX forecast ESTOFEX issues convective forecasts for the next day every convective forecasts for the next day every evening evening updates as required updates as required These forecasts consist of two parts: forecast discussion forecast discussion forecast map forecast map ECSS2004 León, Spain

6. SLIGHT RISK HIGH RISK MODERATE RISK SEVERE STORMS UNLIKELY Isolated severe TSTMS Widespread severe TSTMS Major severe TSTM outbreak Typical active mid-summer severe-weather day An ESTOFEX forecast ECSS2004 León, Spain

7. moisture at low levels CAPE vertical wind shear lift steep lapse rates Intersection: Possibility of severe convective Storms Basic underlying concept

8. Difficulties/Problems volunteers with too limited time for issuing regular volunteers with too limited time for issuing regular updates and mesoscale discussions updates and mesoscale discussions risk levels are subjective risk levels are subjective no formal verification no formal verification limited amount of data (e.g. surface observations) limited amount of data (e.g. surface observations) mostly dependent on internet sources mostly dependent on internet sources ECSS2004 León, Spain

9. cooperation with the ESWD projectcooperation with the ESWD project develop objective risk categories and a rigorous forecast verification schemedevelop objective risk categories and a rigorous forecast verification scheme obtain more observational and model dataobtain more observational and model data offer additional products (e.g. mesoscale discussions)offer additional products (e.g. mesoscale discussions) More distant future uncertain, maybe become part of organized pan-European initiative? Future work ECSS2004 León, Spain

10. Thank you for your attention! ECSS2004 León, Spain http://www.estofex.org