1. Numerical Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Progress and Plans Geoff DiMego Mesoscale Modeling Branch Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov 301-763-8000 ext7221 30 November 2010 NCEPNCEP

2. T O P I C S Operational Model Suite Overview Central Computer System (CCS) Acquisition Status Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Global Forecast System (GFS) HiResWindow NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NARRE, HRRRE SREF, VSREF RTMA, Analysis of Record

3. Mostly Satellite +Radar North American Mesoscale NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF (NMM) Global Forecast System Rapid Refresh GSD’s RUC moving to WRF-ARW for RR Climate CFS ~3B+ Obs / Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast The NCEP Operational Model Suite Items in RED are Meso Branch Concerns MOM3 Coupled Global Data Assimilation Dispersion, Ash, Smoke & Dust ARL’s HYSPLIT Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Air Quality NAM + EPA’s CMAQ NMM + ARW [+SREF = HREF] Severe Weather Regional Data Assimilation NMM + ARW + ETA + RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model, FNMOC + VSREF RUC + NAM DGEX NMM R T M A NOAH Land Surface Model Fire Weather : NMM

4. CCS Acquisition Status Draft Request for Proposals (RFP) was posted to FedBizOpps 12 Nov 2011Draft Request for Proposals Highlights (& LOWLIGHTS!) –10 year contract: 5-yr Base, 3-yr option & 2-yr transition option –Vendors must provide two facilities One must be at least 120 miles from DC Both facilities must be at least 120 miles apart –Initial delivery will be the same size as the current CCS No increase in compute capacity of system or disk storage Additional funding is being pursued, but has not yet been identified –Any system architecture will be considered Unix (vendor flavor) or Linux based Homogeneous or heterogeneous Current contract has been extended for 2 years (FY12+FY13) for transition –One year to bring the two facilities on-line –One year for transition –Provides for NO increase in compute capacity or storage

5. CCS Acquisition Status Remaining Schedule –Vendor responses to draft RFP – 30 November 2010 –Industry Day – 6 December 2010 –Revise & Post final RFP – ASAP –Vendors submit responses –Proposals evaluated & Set Competitive Range –Provide remaining vendors comments & questions –Receive Best and Final Offers (BAFO) –Review BAFO & make recommendation –Award Contract – no later than 30 September 2011 –New contract starts – No later than 1 October 2011 –System Operational – No later than 1 October 2013

6. Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Multi-Agency development effort led by NCEP/EMC –ESRL / GSD + ESRL / PSD –Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation NOAA, NESDIS, NASA, DOD –Code management (SubVersion) with regression testing Community supported via DTC in Boulder – GSI Community Tutorial June 28-30, 2010 GSI Community Tutorial Includes hybrid approach: Ensemble Kalman-Filter + 3D- or 4D-VAR –GSI already had 4D-VAR capability added by Y.Tremolet/R.Todling of NASA/GMAO with many solution options for both 3D- and 4D-VARiational –First hybrid version now installed and tested in GSI –Works for global & NEMS/NMMB on full or subset of model domain / resolution –Reads external ensemble(s) of different resolution –Testing dual resolution to make the hybrid affordable, connecting NMMB/NDAS to operational GEFS & experimental EnKF

7. GSI Upgrades Global upgrade ~March 2011 Faster code (~9%), improved optimization and additional options Recomputed background errors Limit moisture to be >= 1.e-10 in each outer iteration and at the end of analysis Locate buoys at 10 m (from 20 m) Ambiguous vector qc for ASCAT data Satellite radiance related changes Update to radiative transfer model - CRTM 2.0.2 Inclusion of Field of View Size/Shape/Power for radiative transfer Relax AMSU-A Channel 5 QC Remove down weighting of collocated radiances Inclusion of uniform (higher resolution) thinning for satellite radiances Stratospheric satellite Improved OMI QC Removal of redundant SBUV/2 total ozone Retune SBUV/2 ozone ob errors Inclusion of SBUV from NOAA-19 New ob sources for NAM ~May 2011 New conventional obs –MESONET p s, T, q –ACARS moisture (WVSS-II) –MAP Profiler winds –RASS Profiler Tv –WINDSAT & ASCAT ocean winds (from scatterometer) New unconventional obs –Satellite Radiances AMSUA from aqua & NOAA19 HIRS4 & MHS from NOAA19 IASI from METOP-A –Refractivity GPS radio occultation 7

8. 8 GFS Resolution Increase (July 2010) Horizontal Resolution Increase from T382 to T574 spectral or from ~35 km to ~27 km Physics Upgrades & Enhancements –Radiation and Cloud –Boundary Layer –Mass flux Shallow Convection –Deep Convection –Removal of Negative Water Vapor Gravity-Wave Drag Parameterization Better Hurricane Relocation & Snow analysis

9. 9 Modified GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL –Detrainment from all levels (deep convection) –PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus) Eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs” Impact of GFS Physics Upgrade Implemented 28 July 2010 Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS 24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009

10. T574 T382 ECMWF 10 Low Wind Speed Bias in Stratosphere Will Be Corrected with Reduced Diffusion in ~March 2011 GSI+GFS-Bugfix Bundle T574 with reduced diffusion

11. 11 GFS FY2012 Upgrade Plans  Model not yet been finalized - current candidates are:  T-574 / L64 Eulerian  Sub-grid scale cloud scheme using Monte-Carlo Independent Column Approximation  Ferrier Microphysics (from NAM)  Surface Roughness over water  NSST Model – produces realistic diurnal cycle for SST  T-878 / L64 Semi-Lagrangian  Longer time step permitted for dynamics & advection  Uses identical grid as T-574 to perform physics  Recently solved the noise issue at the top of the model  Additional efficiency has been gained - g reater resolution may be possible  Include some/all of the Eulerian changes  Aerosols using GOCART (with NASA)  WAFS products harmonized with UK Met (WAFC-London)

12. Offline GFS-GOCART 7-day Simulation of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Daily 48 Hours Forecasts made from April 14 2010 to April 20 2010, CPU~ 3 hours clock each day Driven by operational GFS (T-382 remapped to 1 deg x 1 deg) 5 size bins (radius) DU1: 0.1 – 1.0 µm, DU2: 1.0 - 1.8 µm, DU3: 1.8 – 3.0 µm, DU4: 3.0 – 6.0 µm, DU5: 6.0 – 10.0 µm Continuous release of 1x10 6 kg/hr in 1x1 grid box at ~5 km level for each bin, total=5x10 6 kg/hr Results shown: –0-24 hour forecast from April 14 to April 20, 24-48 hour forecast for last day (April 21 01Z- April 22 -00Z) –Hourly average total column concentration, sum of all 5 bin (du1 + du2 + du3 + du4 + du5)

13. Guam 18Z 06Z 00Z 12Z 00Z, 12Z 06Z, 18Z 00Z, 12Z 4.0 km WRF-NMM 5.15 km WRF-ARW 48 hr fcsts from both Unless there are hurricanes Expanded PR domain ~Feb 2011 Upgrade of HiResWindow Upgrade NMM & ARW to WRF v3.2 Use improved passive advection in both cores Add High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) & BUFR product generation Daily displays of these runs can be seen at: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ and http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

14. SREF mean of 21 members 24 h total qpf HREF mean of 44 members 24 h total qpf ARW 24 h total qpf NMM 24 h total qpf 20101020/06f48 20101020/03f5120101020/06f48

15. NMMARW Sample BUFR output from HiresW planned 2011 Upgrade

16. NEMS Component Structure MAIN EARTH(1:NM) Ocean Atm Ice Below the dashed line, the source codes are organized by the model developers. FIM Dyn Phy Wrt NEMS Ensemble Coupler GFS DynPhyWrt NMM Dyn Phy Domains(1:ND) Wrt All boxes represent ESMF components (now supported by NOAA/ESRL). NEMS LAYER ARW Dyn Phy Wrt WRF-ChemGOCARTCMAQ

17. NEMS NMM-B Nests - Static, 1-way interaction. For Spring 2011 implementation: ● - Unique sets of processors assigned to each domain to optimize the balance of work and minimize the clocktime required. - Boundaries fed by the parent every parent timestep during the integration. Future ● - Moving, 1-way interaction; now under development. - Any parent-nest ratio (integer) can be used. - Nest is ‘grid-associated’ with its parent. - Static/Moving, 2-way interaction. Flexibility may be restricted in domain processor assignment and parent-nest ratios. - Free-standing nests that are not ‘grid-associated’ with parents.

18. 19Z 11 August Tropical Depression 5 1000 m REFD, 10 m winds Gulf Spill 1.33 km NEMS/NMMB nest

19. 19 ~May 2011 NAM Upgrade Current NAM WRF-NMM (E-grid) GSI analysis 4/Day = 6 hr update Forecasts to 84 hours 12 km horizontal 12 hr pre-forecast assimilation period with 3hr updates (catch-up) New NAM NEMS based NMMB B-grid replaces E-grid Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr Multiple Nests Run to 60 hr –4 km CONUS nest –6 km Alaska nest –3 km HI & PR nests Single locatable ~1.33-1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hrSingle locatable ~1.33-1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hr

20. Microphysics Development Added WRF’s WSM6 microphysics (W. Wang) –Tests over 4-km CONUS (conus4) and 4-km CONUS in 12-km AQ domain runs (nest) –Similar skill in both runs, WSM6 ~30% slower Advection of condensate (W. Wang) –Added “spec_adv” flag to NMMB Advect total condensate only (false) Advect individual hydrometeors (true) –Works for wsm6 & fer microphysics –Similar skill seen for either advection option Concluded no benefit to compensate for greater expense

21. Physics Testing: Reduced Convective Triggering in 4 km CONUS nest vs 12 km Parent 0-60 h Cu QPF Parent (BMJ) Nest (BMJ_DEV) Deep Cu Cloud Top Pressure (hPa)

22. 22 Turned on gravity wave drag/mountain blocking in 6 km Alaska nest to reduce 10-m wind bias Last run w/o GWDFirst run w/GWD

23. Microphysics Changes Impacts the Simulated Radar Reflectivities New ferrier Higher composite dBZ in new vs. ops fer Output is from 4-km CONUS nest runs but interpolated to 12-km grid 218. Ops ferrier

24. Parent & Nest Reflectivity Loop Left: 12-km “Air Quality” Domain (~1/2 size of current NAM) - Control BMJ convection (same as in NAM) - Modified fer microphysics Right:4-km CONUS domain - BMJ_DEV convection (reduced triggering) - Modified fer microphysics

25. New Cloud Fraction (reduced for cold, high clouds) GOES W Vis GOES W IR NAM Total Cloud Fraction (%) New Total Cloud Fraction (%)

26. Hurricane Earl near Puerto Rico 12 km NMMB parent3 km Puerto Rico nest

27. May 2010 27/16Z to 28/12Z MD Backdoor Coldfront in 1.33km Nest

28. May 2010 27/16Z to 28/12Z MD Backdoor Coldfront in 1.33km Nest

31. Convergence of NAM & RUC into hourly NARRE & HRRRE There is a signed agreement on NARRE between NCEP/EMC and ESRL/GSD Based on NEMS common modeling infrastructure Ensembles: Sample uncertainty within membership Initial & Lateral Boundary conditions Dynamics & Physics Provide full description of uncertainty Can adapt to rapidly evolving science of underlying data assimilation and modeling

32. 2011 NAM NEMS based NMMB Bgrid replaces Egrid Parent remains at 12 km to 84 hr Multiple Nests Run to 60hr – 4 km CONUS nest – 6 km Alaska nest – 3 km HI & PR nests Reinstate Fire Weather/IMET Support/DHS run to 36hr 1.33-1.5 km – Locate a single 1.33-1.5 km run – In either CONUS or Alaska Rapid Refresh WRF-based ARW NCEP’s GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR RUC-13 CONUS domain WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR

33. 2014-2015 North American Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (NARRE) NMMB (from NCEP) & ARW (from ESRL) dynamic cores Common use of NEMS infrastructure and GSI analysis Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly updating NAM & SREF 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z runs – for continuity sake. –SREF will be at same 10-12 km resolution as NARRE by then –SREF will have 21 members plus 6 from NARRE for total of 27 NARRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding

34. 34 2015-2016 High Resolution Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (HRRRE) Each member of NARRE contains 3 km nests –CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico/Hispaniola nests –The two control runs initialized with radar data & other hi res obs This capability puts NWS/NCEP[+OAR/ESRL] in a position to –Provide NextGen Enroute AND Terminal guidance (FWIS-like) –Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability Density Function specified, hence uncertainty information too –Provide a vehicle to improve assimilation capabilities using hybrid (EnsKF+4DVar) technique with current & future radar & satellite –Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs. HRRRE requires an increase in current HPCC funding over and above that required for the NARRE

35. 35 2015-2017 A Catch-Up Cycle for NARRE & HRRRE could constitute the Analysis of Record Catch-up = reach back in time to include late arriving obs Assimilate ALL in situ and remote data sources Use state-of-the-art 4-dimensional data assimilation technique –Likely a hybrid of Ensemble Kalman-Filter and 3D-/4D-Variational –Able to take quick advantage of its evolution Use state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic numerical models –Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core from NCAR & ESRL/GSD –Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-Grid (NMMB) from NCEP –Interoperable physics from WRF community & NCEP operations –Able to take quick advantage of their evolution Extend to include NextGen required parameters This AoR requires an increase in current HPCC funding

36. Review SREF Implementation (Oct. 27 th 2009) - Jun Du et al. Upgrade model versions –WRF-NMM from v2.0+ to v2.2+ –WRF-ARW from v2.0+ to v2.2+ –RSM from v2007 to v2009 Increase horizontal resolution –WRF-NMM from 40km to 32km –WRF-ARW from 45km to 35km –RSM from 45km to 32km Adjust membership –Replace 2 Eta (BMJ-sat) members with 2 WRF-NMM members –Replace 2 Eta (KF-det) members with 2 WRF-ARW members Enhancement physics diversity of RSM: replace Zhao cloud scheme with Ferrier cloud scheme for 3 SAS members Enhance initial perturbation diversity: Replace regional bred perturbations with global ET perturbations for 10 WRF members

37. Next SREF Implementation Plan (Q4FY2011) - Geoff DiMego and Jun Du Models and configurations Drop Eta (6 members) and RSM (5 members) Add 7 NEMS-NMMB members and 2 each to WRF members, yielding Membership and resolution of future SREF will be – 7 NEMS-NMMB at 22 km (from 32 km) – 7 WRF-NMM at 22 km (from 32 km) – 7 WRF-ARW at 25 km (from 35 km) Initialization diversity of future SREF will be – 7 NEMS-NMMB from NAM / NDAS + ETR – 7 WRF-NMM from GFS / GDAS + ETR – 7 WRF-ARW from Rapid Refresh + ETR Ensemble job scripts have been generalized to run both WRF & NEMS members significantly simplifying future implementations Output same fields as current operational SREF Post process Precipitation calibration

38. SREF Implementation Plan for FY11-14 - Geoff DiMego and Jun Du North America Ensemble Forecast System’s extension to regional ensemble (NAEFS_LAM) Based on 5 th NAEFS conference: May 17-19 th, 2010 Need - Both U.S. and Canada need to run high-resolution regional ensembles for high-impact weather. Benefit - More resource can be spent on increasing model resolution but not on increasing ensemble membership as well as increasing forecast diversity. Canadian REPS: 20 members with GEM, downscaled GEFS IC perturbations, 30km, 48hr, NA domain, later 2010 implementation (B08RDP, VC2010, Haiti earth quake relief effort) (21+20=41 member SREF) Problem - Both countries are big in domain and don’t have enough computing resources to run such a high-resolution ensemble with large enough ensemble size. Evolving Plans for NAEFS_LAM –2010: verification and implementation of REPS at Canadian side –2011/12: research to see benefit of combining NCEP SREF and CMC REPS and resolve technical details about the data/variable exchange following NAEFS –2013: operational implementation at both centers Others Stochastic physics –Convective parameterization of Teixeira et al - NRL Ensemble transform with rescaling (ETR) initial perturbations –Consistent with boundary perturbations from GEFS Resolution –Looking for higher resolution

39. 060912000318211206 NAM RUC NAM cycles always older than RUC  VSREF gives more weight to RUC Example: Ensemble member combination for 06Z cycle run 4 NAM cycles, weighted 0.7, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, respectively 6 RUC cycles, weighted 1.0, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, respectively Forecast hour extended to 12 hr (with extension of RUC forecasts to 18hr) 1518 06Z cycle: VSREF’s ensemble member configuration 2100 Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast (VSREF) System [courtesy of Binbin Zhou]

40. VSREF Webpage Download grids from here

41. Google Map of 4 RTMA Domains First Phase of Analysis of Record Real Time Mesoscale Analysis Analyzed every hour on the NWS’ NDFD grids 10 m wind + est. anal. uncertainty 2m Temperature + est.anal.unc. 2m dew point + est.anal.unc. Sfc pressure + est.anal.uncertainty 1 hr precip (Stage 2) GOES Eff. Cloud Amount Courtesy of Yan Zheng University of Utah

42. 42 2.5 km (top) vs 5 km (bottom)

43. NAM 12 hr Forecast Ri-Based PBL Height with Verifying RAOBs

44. Initial Test RTMA Analysis of PBL Height