1. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) The Caribbean Food System: Background, Socio-economic Issues and Vulnerability to GEC Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad) Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)

2. Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Physical)

3. Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Economic Indicators)

4. Regional characterisation  Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize)  Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems  Great dependence on food imports  Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenue  Susceptibility to weather extremes  Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets  Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

5. Major Sources of Foreign Exchange:  Agricultural exports  Tourism  Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the energy sector is dominant:  Oil  Gas (LNG)  Methanol  Ammonia

6. The Caribbean Region: A Net Importer of Food (US $ Billion) 19992000 CARICOMImports2.9562.061 Exports1.0921.223 CaribbeanImports3.350 Exports1.947

7. Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By:  Cereal: wheat & corn Food & livestock feed Food & livestock feed  Oils: soyabean and corn  Meat Products

8. Overall Impact  Declining production  Declining incomes  Increasing levels of poverty/unemployment  Increasing incidence of malnutrition

9. Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM  Food security  Enhancing productivity and international competitiveness in agriculture  Food safety  Rural employment  Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector and rural communities

10. Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the Caribbean region  Changing climate variability  Changes in mean climate (including global change)  Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events  Sea level rise  GEC and social impacts on land and water resources and availability

11. Vulnerability  Increase in atmospheric temperature –Global average surface temp. projected to warm 1.4-5.8 °C by 2100 relative to 1990 –Changes in crop responses –Heat stress in livestock –Greater change further poleward which may imply change in markets, competition from what were existing or potential markets  Increased sea surface temperatures –Damage to coral reefs –Losses of current marine/fishing species –Loss of tourist attraction (diving and snorkeling) –Changing species (non-reef)

12. Vulnerability  Tropical storms and hurricanes –Increased frequency and intensities –Greater infrastructural damage –Losses of agricultural production  Other severe systems –Reports of greater intensities without necessarily an increase in annual rainfall –Flooding –Runoff and erosion

13. Vulnerability  Sea level rise –Global average sea level projected to rise 0.09-0.88m by 2100 –Small islands with loss of significant land area, most cities situated near sea ports –In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of majority of agriculture –Salt water intrusion –Destruction of beaches, losses to tourism

14. Vulnerability  Drought –Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction with NAO) events –Crop and livestock losses in states whose agricultural production are mainly rainfed –Agriculture water competing with domestic, tourism and other industries

15. Overarching GECAFS Questions  Theme 1:How will GEC (especially land degradation, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of food systems in the Caribbean?  Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical diversification in food harvested and traded for local consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would best provide effective adaptation strategies?  Theme 3:What would be the consequences of these combinations on national and regional food provision, local livelihoods and natural resource degradation?

16. Story lines developed for two spatial levels: Local and Regional STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL  Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally- produced food crops.  Aim: To reduce food system vulnerability, especially in relation to changes in climate variability. STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL LEVEL  Target:Caribbean regional food provision.  Aim:To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the additional complications GEC would bring to regional food provision, given changing preferential export markets.

17. GECAFS Questions Local Level  Theme 1How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect food systems of communities on different islands?  Theme 2How would current national and regional policy instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?  Theme 3To what extent would these strategies affect food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on this?

18.  Theme 1What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what would be their impact on revenue generation from different cash commodities?  Theme 2How could regional institutional changes best be introduced to sustain regional food provision by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?  Theme 3How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region? GECAFS Questions Regional Level

19. Regional Response: Challenges  Diversification challenges:  Difficulty of achieving economics of scale  Production characterized by small fragmented farms  Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and labour-saving technology  Market access/penetration constraints  Shipping/handling costs  Quality issues  Lack of critical export volumes

20. Regional Response: Challenges (Continued)  Rapid conversion of best arable lands to housing/built development  Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny  Declining water resource availability  Degradation of watersheds  Weak R&D and Innovation Support  Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism