1. POSSIBLE MEASURES TO REDUCE HUMAN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The Changing Arctic Global Climate Change – Thee Need for Action, The Ny-Ålesund Symposium 2007, Ny-Ålesund August 20 - 22, 2007 Jorgen Randers Norwegian School of Management BI

2. CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY GtCO 2 per year From fossil fuels From land use change SUSTAINABLE

3. Stern: Necessary reduction to achieve 450-550 ppm CO2e Stabilising below 450ppm CO2e would require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter. If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm CO2e if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterwards. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required. Source: Taylor, on Stern Review 2006

4. THE NEED: 50 % CUT IN CO 2 BY 2050 GtCO 2 per year From fossil fuels From land use change 2050 KYOTO 2100 SUSTAINABLE

5. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: Taylor, on Stern Review 2006 Sum: 35% Sum: 65%

6. Increase energy efficiency Efficient cars, buildings, industrial plant Efficient transport pattern (public transport, coordinated cargo, less truck and air) Replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources More wind, solar, biomass More bio-fuels More heat-pumps More nuclear? Make remaining fossil use “CO 2 -free” Carbon capture and storage in power plants CCS in other big point sources Reduce non-energy emissions Reduced emissions from forestry Methane capture in waste disposal and agriculture A GLOBAL SOLUTION –WHAT?

7. WWF: COVERING GLOBAL ENERGY NEED Increased energy efficiency New renewable energy supply Carbon capture and storage Source: WWF, Climate Solutions, 2007

8. IEAE: CO 2 Reduction by Sector End-use efficiency offers the largest potential (45%) Power Gen. 34%, CO 2 Capture & Storage (CCS) 20% Other renew. 6% Biomass 2% Fossil fuel gen. eff 1% Nuclear 6% Coal to gas 5% Hydro 2% CCS 12% Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2% Power Gen 34% End-use efficiency 45% Biofuels in transport 6% CCS in fuel transformation 3% CCS in industry 5% MAP Scenario 2050 32 Gt CO 2 Reduction Materials & products effic. 1% Energy & feedstock effic. 6% Cogen. & steam 2% Process innovation 1% Industry 10% Appliances 7.5% Water heat., cooking 1% Space heating 3% Lighting, misc. 3.5% Air conditioning 3% Buildings 18% Fuel economy in transport 17% Transport 17% Source: Unander, on IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2006

9. Increase energy efficiency Efficient cars, buildings, industrial plant Efficient transport pattern (public transport, coordinated cargo, less truck and air) Replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources More wind, solar, biomass More bio-fuels More heat-pumps More nuclear? Make remaining fossil use “CO 2 -free” Carbon capture and storage in power plants CCS in other big point sources Reduce non-energy emissions Reduced emissions from forestry Methane capture in waste disposal and agriculture A GLOBAL SOLUTION –WHAT? 30 % 20 % – relative weight

10. GHG ABATEMENT COST CURVE Source: McKinsey Quarterly, No1 2007

11. Increase energy efficiency Higher cost for energy More R&D Replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources Higher cost for GHG emissions Remove subsidies for fossils More subsidies for renewables More R&D Make remaining fossil use “CO 2 -free” Initial subsidy for CCS Higher cost for GHG emissions More R&D Reduce non-energy emissions Reduced land clearing More reforestation Higher cost for GHG emissions A GLOBAL SOLUTION – HOW?

12. The result if Norway continues business as usual Emissions increase by about 40 per cent to 2050 THE “REFERENCE PATH” TO 2050

13. MEASURES IN LOW EMISSIONS PATH

14. The result if Norway imple- ments the Commission’s total solution Emissions fall to one third of Norway’s Kyoto obligation by 2050 THE “LOW EMISSIONS PATH” TO 2050

15. SMALL EFFECT ON NORWAY’S GDP Reference path Low emissions path

16. STRONG CLIMATE ACTION MAY BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF: 1.The perceived high cost of action 2.Long time from cost to benefit 3.Immediate effects on distribution: loss of jobs 4.The tragedy of the climate commons 5.Initial damage strikes those who can’t afford to act 6.Legitimate unwillingness among the poor to commit 7.The tyranny of the cost-effective solution THREATH 1: GLOBAL DECISION DELAYS

17. Global warming may become self-sustaining and unstoppable because of: Increased absorption of solar heat in an increasingly ice-free Arctic ocean, Increased emissions of methane gas from melting tundra, Reduced absorption of CO 2 in acidic ocean water, and other self-reinforcing mechanisms. THREATH 2: SELF-REINFORCING FEEDBACK IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

18. Here!

19. MELTING TUNDRA - 2

20. MELTING TUNDRA - 3

21. THANK YOU!