1. Analytical Support for Decision Making in the Security Sector Integration of C2 and M&S elements in CAX for Crisis Management (federation management) Dr. Velizar Mateev Shalamanov, Institute of Parallel Processing – BAS Sofia 1113, Akad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl. 25 A, IPP-BAS, BULGARIA Telephone: ++ 359 (2) 9796747 Telefax: ++ 359 (2) 8707273 Email Address: Shalamanov@acad.bgShalamanov@acad.bg

2. Outline 1.CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation 2.M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment 3.CAX Federation Management This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007) CoE in Operational Analyses (http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/)http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/

3. CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation Strategic Review Process: White paper Concept Development – list of principles and options Scenario Development Operational Architecture Model Environment Set-up Pre-exercise Training CAX / MAX Analysis, Assessment, Lessons, Recommendations

4. Training as a Tool for Change Management in Third Generation of Security Sector Reform Building of Integrated Security Sector as Goal of Third Generation Security Sector Reform –Defense (Sovereignty, Expeditionary Operations, Territorial defense) –Public Order and Security –Emergency Management / Consequence Management –Diplomacy / protection abroad –Information operations Key Pillar of Integrated Security Sector - Defense Against Terrorism and Consequence Management (Crisis Management) Role of Training in Change Management

5. Third Generation SSR for Integrated Security Sector MoD MoI MoEM MoFA Special Services Integrated Security Sector MoFAMoDMoIMoEMSpecial Services One Ministry’s Operation: Defense Public order Emergency management Diplomacy Information Complex Crisis Management Operations of the Integrated Security Sector

6. Training as a Tool for Change Management General Education / Training Joint CAX Planning Individual Training Pre-exercise Training CAX Lessons Learned Analysis Specialized Tactical Training

7. CAX are main tool for training and respectively change management of complex systems. Integrated emergency management system is a typical element of complex adaptive system, which needs effective change management internally and at the same time is an effective change management tool for the whole security sector in transition from traditional national security to civil security concept. CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system with M&S tools to provide real test–bed for new concepts and new technologies including the key element – people in the loop.

8. M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment M&S elements in General Architecture of JTSAC –Planning and Analysis Cell Planning and resource management Assessment of CAX –White Cell / Simulation cell Concept to scenario transition Simulation of scenario and environment Simulation of IEWS/Notification System –Operations Center Analytical Cell DMS tools Communications Cell planning and management tolls Integration between scenario M&S and C2 system

9. Architecture of Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Center in Civil-Military Emergency Planning / Response (JTSAC-CMEP) White Cell IEMS White Cell WIS/LL Scenario Development Scenario Simulation Emerg calls Alerting system Meteorological info Hydrological info Seismological info IEWS Planning, Costing, Reporting Briefing room PR room VIP room EU, NATO, UN / MIC, EADRCC, OCHA Ministries: MoEM, MoI, MoD, MH, MoEW, MoE, MoAF National Media, NGOs, other agencies District EOC/LEMA as well as OSOCC MHS/IDS/WIS Field EOC and First responders C2 elements MHSIDSWIS Analy- tical cell Comms cell Functional areas incl. PR National EOC

10. M&S in JTSAC Service Oriented Architecture Scenario Modeling Scenario Simulation Environment Modeling And Simulation, incl. IEWNS, Network Basic IM tools for EMS Decision Making Support Information Fusion and Presentation White Cell Emergency Operations Center Planning Assessment M&S Server WIS serverMeta simulation data

11. M&S in Planning and Lessons Learned Drafting Life Cycle of CAX Key role of economic dimension and PPP Resource Management / Contracting Knowledge Management Business Continuity Management

12. M&S in CAX Planning reporting Problems in the transformation management in the security sector Resources Budget System Architect / OpNet General architecture Alternatives Expert Choice Multi Choice2 Choice Choice of alternatives Activity Based Costing MS Project Plan QPR Assessment Implementation Balanced system of indicators Integrated system of management Excel/Word

13. M&S in CAX Assessment Yesterday Today Tomorrow JTSAC Architecture How to Provide Best Environment for Experimentation and Training? Information Flow Analytical Support Use of new technologies Information Flow Analytical Support Use of new technologies Scenario and Operational Architecture How to Develop Best Concept and Organizational Structure for CM System? Minimize reaction time Maximize effectiveness Minimize negative consequences Increase Society Satisfaction Minimize reaction time Maximize effectiveness Minimize negative consequences Increase Society Satisfaction CAX team training and development How to form and train team and develop CAX products / services for better way achieving other goals? Organizational, tasking, training Bonus payment and retaining personnel Organizational, tasking, training Bonus payment and retaining personnel Financial How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation of New Concepts? Time for planning / implementing Budget to run CAX Reusability of environment Time for planning / implementing Budget to run CAX Reusability of environment

14. Need for “proxy” organization BAS and JTSAC role Cooperation with NATO –NSC –RTO Cooperation with EU –DG Environment –6 and 7 FP Cooperation on bilateral basis Regional (SEE, WBSA) cooperation

15. CAX and Real C2 CAX without real C2 system CAX with real C2 System –Direct link C2 => M&S M&S => C2 M&S  C2 –Link through “air gap” and human processing Trainees Support staff Combined

16. CAX Federation Federation Network BUS MoD MoI MoSPDAMoFA PMA and CBM PMA – Planning, Management and Assessment; CBM – Continuity of Business Management; DMS – Decision Making Support; M&S – Modeling and Simulation; DB – Data base; GIS – Geographic Information System; e-GRID – European R&D network of computing resources Scenario Development Scenario Simulation M&S tools or real C2 of: DB GIS MHS WIS IDS Natural Environment M&S from BAS Institutes Design and M&S of the Technology Diagrams as well as the Network and Comms / Info Assurance Government – Security Council, Standing Committee on Protection of Population: Integrated Security Sector InternetDMS e – GRID Computing resource International Organizations

17. Three critical elements There are four critical elements in CAX architecture simulation cell operations cell analytical cell comms cell that need conceptual, information, hardware and software integration in order to support realistic flow of the training process.

18. Key mechanism Current paper explores a model of such integration based on static and dynamic technological diagrams with distributed nodes in these four cells. In normal C2 system all nodes will “sit” in operations and analytical cell with tendency to have as much as possible of them in the analytical cell providing scientific best solution for problems arising during crisis management scenario. In exercise simulation cell has to cover all nodes that is impossible to be covered by operations and analytical cells. So in one end is a system with participants in the exercise only looking at closed simulation run by simulation cell, without any input from operations or analytical cell.

19. Next step is when we have some nodes implemented in analytical or operations cell and at the other end is a full C2 system where there are no elements in simulation cell – all of the nodes are implemented in operations and analytical cell.

20. Interoperability patchwork 1.Memorandum of Understanding between organizations 2.Standard Operating Procedures / Documents 3.Scenario as event / message list (Operational Architecture related) 4.Basic MHS/WIS/IDS to support interagency cooperation on proxy basis 5.GIS and DB (common for all organizations on proxy basis) 6.Environment simulation from different BAS Institutes – hydrology, meteorology, seismology, remote sensing, … 7.Internet simulated comms and computing power 8.CAX Federation BUS management based on Technological Diagrams 9.Integrated Implementation Plan and Balance Score Card Assessment

21. Conclusions - I 1.Growing number of new and diverse concepts – need for rapid experimentation and adaptation 2.Horizontal nature of the new concepts – need for cross culture training 3.Key element in concept implementation / change management is the personnel – people in the loop model for experimentation is needed 4.Low cost and flexibility of training environment is a prerequisite for large scale implementation 5.CAX and MAX balance in training and experimentation is needed

22. Conclusions - II 6.Evolutionary development (prototyping) and rapid implementation of the results of experimented concepts is required (CoE-OA => JTSAC-CMEP => EU TACOM SEE-2006 => IEMS FS example) 7.Integration of efforts of Administration / Forces, R&D / E&T academic institutions and business based on M&S environment is a must 8.Proxy Organization is needed to provide patchwork interoperability between all participant in federation 9.JTSAC-CMEP is a tool set to provide environment for federation management