1. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Air pollution in India Achievements and challenges 22 nd Oct 2013 Sumit Sharma, Fellow, TERI

2. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Air pollution disasters- shifting bases  London Smog of 1952  Donora, Pennsylvania, US, 1948

3. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Scope

4. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Indian growth story

5. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Growth of India 463 times 3.5 times 50 times

6. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Urban centres Urban agglomerates 53 cities with population more than 1 million

7. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Megacities : New Delhi

8. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Cities with older fleets

9. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Transitioned cities : Bangalore

10. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Growing cities : Jaipur

11. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Small cities : Panjim

12. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies 12 Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles  Over 1/3 rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities  Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc MoRTH,

13. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Expect more growth About 28000 two wheelers, and 4200 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily (2011)  As per Census 2011, 21% households have two wheelers whereas 4.7 % have cars/jeeps/vans More growth expected Data WDI, 2011

14. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Lack of public transport infrastructure  Metros just started in few cities  Buses are just 1% of the total vehicular fleet  Inconvenience in public transport leading to more private vehicle ownership in most of the cities  Low vehicles/Population in Mumbai, Kolkata having better public infrastructure

15. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies 15 Auto Fuel Policy 2002 20 cities by April 2010 No date for rest of the country April 2005 11 cities- April 2003 Entire country April 2010 13 cities- April 2005 Entire country All other new vehicles To be decidedEntire country April 2010 Entire country April 2005 2 & 3 wheelers Bharat Stage IV Bharat Stage III Bharat Stage II Category ?

16. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Regional differentiation  One set of standards for air quality  Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country  Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided.  Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines  No road map after 2010

17. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Learnings from AFP2002  The rate of increase in pollution levels in Bharat III cities moved along a significantly lower trajectory than a BAU scenario would have indicated  During this time, the increase in pollution levels in non-Bharat III cities was steep  No progress has been made on performance improvement of in-use vehicles

18. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Impact on air quality (PM10) *13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms ** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years. Data source : CPCB, NAMP

19. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies  Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the country  Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided by AFP 2002  The focus was more on PM control and less reductions achieved in NOx, and hence, further advancements requiredNOx  The share of older highly polluting vehicles in emissions is going to reduce in future, hence need to focus on improving emissions from newer vehicles  Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on- road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.driving cycles Learnings from AFP2002

20. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010) on emissions -19% PM reductions have been more than NOx TERI’s estimation

21. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Inuse vehicles -Unaccounted emissions due to driving cycles for emission testing

22. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Unaccounted emissions … Unregistered vehicles Overloading Limited maintenance and ineffective PUC system

23. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Transport – Its not just PM !!  Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India  Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary PM formation  NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)  BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming potential. 23

24. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Impacts and motivation

25. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Air quality (2011) NAMP data

26. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Air quality (2011) NAMP data

27. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies PM2.5

28. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Satellite view (AOD)

29. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies NO2

30. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Ozone simulations

31. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10 Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles Shift industries

32. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Urban air quality (Delhi)- NOx & vehicles

33. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Urban air quality (Delhi)- CO

34. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Urban air quality (Delhi)- SO2

35. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Ozone- Civil lines (Delhi) (9-14 th Feb 2013)

36. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Ozone- R.K. Puram (Delhi) (9-14 th Feb 2013)

37. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies PM2.5 is 5th Leading Mortality Risk Factor Ambient PM 2.5 caused an estimated 627,000 deaths ̴ 6% of all deaths in 2010 GBD-Lancet, 2012

38. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Effects on Ozone on crop productivity

39. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Source apportionment studies

40. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Transport emissions and climate change 40 Particles emitted from diesel vehicles contain black carbon Gases (NOx, VOCs) emitted from different sources form Ozone Black carbon is now known to have second highest radiative forcing after CO2 Other than health and agricultural effects it is contributing to warming of the planet Reducing emissions may result into co-benefits Black carbon Ozone

41. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Radiative Forcing of Climate (1750 to present): Important Contributions from Air Pollutants

42. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies What IPCC- AR5 says 43% higher RF mainly due to growth in GHGs and improved estimates of RF by aerosols indicating a weaker net cooling effect. Climate models now include more cloud and aerosol processes, and their interactions Observational and modelling evidences suggest locally higher surface temperatures in polluted regions will increase peak levels of ozone. Short term climate forcers, such as black carbon can be comparable to CO2’s for short time horizons, but in the long term the effect of CO2 dominates.

43. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Fugitive emissions at petrol pumps

44. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Effect of Vapour Recovery System on VOC at fuelling stations in Urban Delhi during winter

45. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Solutions for control of transport emissions 45 Control Provide ULSD in the entire country and a clear roadmap for advancement of emission norms for the whole country Effective inspection and maintenance program Standards for fugitive emissions Shift Enhancement of public transport (bus/rail/waterways) and non-motorized transport Alternate fuels: CNG, LPG etc.

46. Earth Science and Climate Change Decentralized Electricity Solutions Sustainable Habitats Energy Environment Technology Development Environment & Industrial Bio-Technology Bio-Technology & Bio-Resources Water Resources Industrial Energy Efficiency Resources Regulation & Global Security Social Transformation Environment Education & Youth Services Sustainable Development Outreach Modeling & Economic Analysis Centre for Environmental studies Thanks