1. Two-dimensional methodological issues in Canadian municipal infrastructure time series. Marie-Claude Duval, Peter Elliott Statistics Canada ICES III Presentation / June 20, 2007

2. Overview Background Data Sources Challenges Methodology Conclusion and lessons learned

3. 3 Background Importance and current state of Canadas public physical infrastructure Infrastructure Canada required information in support of their research and public policy requirements Project mandate: develop historical data series in current and constant dollars of capital investment and stock, by: asset and province, federal, provincial and municipal governments, 1961-2005 function and province, municipal governments, 1988-2005

4. 4 Background (contd) – Assets - examples Code:Description: 1017Parking Lots and Garages 1019Indoor Recreational Buildings 1213Waste Disposal Facilities 2202Roads 2601Sewage Treatment 8001Computers

5. 5 Background (contd) – Functions Code/Description: 1General Government Services 2Protection of Persons & Property (police, firefighting) 3Transportation and Communication (roads, snow removal, parking) 4Environment (water supply, sewage & garbage collection & disposal) 5Health 6Social Services (welfare) 7Resource conservation & Industrial development ( Industrial parks, tourism) 8Regional Planning & Development 9Recreation & Culture (sport facilities, libraries)

6. 6 Data Sources Annual Capital Investment by Asset and Province, Current $: 1. ICSP - Investment and Capital Stock Program (Stocks) - 1871-2003, asset and industry detail (Canada), aggreg (prov) 2. CES - Capital Expenditures Survey (Flows) - 1988-2003 by province and asset detail; - pre-1988 less detail (building & engineering asset; no industry) 3. PISP - Public Institutions Statistical Program (Functions) - 1993-2003 data series by province, function and asset; Pre-1993: partial data available; used other sources

7. 7 Challenges – ICSP, CES, PISP 1. Data coherence Slightly different universes (industry coding) Asset disconnects between CES and PISP (concordances) Acceptable asset-function combinations ICSP adjustments (e.g. software, residential infrastructure) 2. Data Base Creation Back-cast to 1871 to generate stocks (data gaps, imputation) Level of details required by asset, function and province in order to derive data in constant dollars. 3. Benchmarking Respect ICSP control totals – by asset and by province – Respect local government data trends by asset and province and by function and province (PISP).

8. 8 Methodology Goal: Develop coherent and consistent database on capital investment in current dollars from 1871 to 2003: Part 1 - by asset and province; Part 2 - by asset, function and province

9. 9 Methodology Use of the following data sources: Controls = Investment and Capital Stock Program (ICSP) Source 1 = Capital Expenditures Survey (CES) Source 2 = Public Institutions Statistical Program (PISP)

10. 10 Methodology Assumptions: All information known at the requested level is better than no information. The two sources are relevant even if different and were reconciled to be comparable.

11. 11 Methodology Part 1: Provide estimates on capital investment by asset and province

12. 12 Methodology Part 1 – Capital Investments by asset and province Constraints: Respect total by asset and total by province (controls). Try to respect local government data trends by asset and province (source 2). Capital Investment from two different sources (source 1 and source 2) might be different between them as well as with the controls. Lack of data from sources 1 and 2 for some years.

13. 13 Methodology Part 1 – Capital Investments by asset and province Process: For each year, use raking ratio estimator to derive capital investment by asset and province using data from source 1 and source 2 and by respecting control total by asset and control total by province (controls).

14. 14 Methodology Part 1 – Capital investments by asset and province 1. Control data are the marginals: C a,. = Capital investment by asset C.,p = Capital investment by province AssetProvince...QueOnt...Total 1006C 1006,. 1008C 1008,.... Total...C., que C., ont...C

15. 15 Methodology Part 1 - Capital investments by asset and province 2a. Use data from source 1 in the cells : C a, p, S1 AssetProvince...QueOnt...Total 1006....C 1006,que,S1 C 1006,ont,S1 C 1006,. 1008....C 1008,que,S1 C 1008,ont,S1....C 1008,........... Total...C., que C., ont...C

16. 16 Methodology Part 1 - Capital investments by asset and province 2b. Adjust the cell values to preserve the controls. Raking ratio estimator ( C a,p,S1,rr ) AssetProvince...QueOnt...Total 1006....C 1006,que,S1,rr C 1006,ont,S1,rr C 1006,. 1008....C 1008,que,S1,rr C 1008,ont,S1,rr....C 1008,........... Total...C., que C., ont...C

17. 17 Methodology Part 1 - Capital investments by asset and province 2c. If no data available at the cell level, calculate the expected values by asset and province C a,p,S1,e =C a. *C.p /C AssetProvince...QueOnt...Total 1006....C 1006,que,S1,e C 1006,ont,S1, e C 1006,. 1008....C 1008,que,S1, e C 1008,ont,S1, e C 1008,.... Total...C., que C., ont...C

18. 18 Methodology Part 1 - Capital investments by asset and province 3. Redo the steps 2a to 2c using Source 2 data. 4. Take the mean of the two values obtained in steps 2 and 3.

19. 19 Methodology Part 1 - Capital investments by asset and province 5. Analysis Analysis using the time series. Biggest differences between the raking ratio values from Source 1 and Source 2. Biggest differences between the raw data from Source 1 and Source 2. 6. Apply corrections if necessary. 7. Redo the raking ratio. 8. Repeat steps 5 to 7 until the results are satisfactory.

20. 20 Examples Ontario, asset 8001 (computers & related equipment) RAW DATA (source 1, source 2) RAKING RATIO (source 1, source 2, mean)

21. 21 Examples Ontario, asset 2602 (Sanitary & Storm Sewers) RAW DATA (source 1, source 2) RAKING RATIO (source 1, source 2, mean)

22. 22 Methodology Part 2: Provide estimates on capital investment by asset, function and province

23. 23 Methodology Part 2 – Capital investment by asset, function and province Constraints: Respect totals by asset and province derived in Part 1. Try to respect local government data trends by function and province (source 2). Capital Investment from source 2 might be different then the one derived in part 1. Lack of data from source 2 for some years.

24. 24 Methodology Part 2 – Capital Investments by asset, function and province Process: For each year, use ratio estimator to derive capital investment by asset, function and province using data from source 2 by respecting estimates by asset and province derived in part 1.

25. 25 Methodology Part 2 - Capital investment by asset, function and province 1. Ratio estimator:

26. 26 Methodology Part 2 - Capital investment by asset, function and province 2. If data from source 2 not available, use the mean of the ratio for years when source 2 is available: 3. Analysis and corrections by function and province. Similar to part 1.

27. 27 Examples Ontario, function 72 (regional planning and development) RAW DATA, RATIO ESTIMATOR

28. 28 Examples Alberta, function 22 (policing) RAW DATA, RATIO ESTIMATOR

29. 29 Methodology Step 1 of the project completed: Capital investment by asset and province and capital investment by asset, function and province from 1871 to 2003 in current dollars. The subsequent steps performed to the data (but out of scope for this presentation) included: Derive capital investment in constant dollars. Derive stocks in current and constant dollars. Estimates for years 2004 and 2005 Estimates for other government levels.

30. 30 Conclusion and lessons learned Working with different sources, over a long period of time with many constraints, is feasible BUT: Constraints to preserve totals: Use of a raking ratio estimator Use all sources available as long as they are relevant and comparable.

31. 31 Conclusion and lessons learned Working with different sources, over a long period of time with many constraints, is feasible BUT: Data quality issues: CONSISTENCY : Make sure to work with comparable sources. If not, apply adjustments to reconcile them (such as different coverage, different assets, differences over time....) RELIABILITY : Data confrontation is important to validate the results and the data used (ex: time series, outliers,...). LACK OF DATA : Strategy in place in case of lack of data.

32. 32 Conclusion and lessons learned Working with different sources, over a long period of time with many constraints, is feasible BUT: Analysis of the results Use of experts who know the topic. Use of tools to validate the results (ex: time series, outliers,...). Correct the data and repeat the process when necessary.

33. 33 For more information / Pour plus dinformation: Papers / Articles: Papers / Articles: Daily (June 30, 2006) www.statcan.ca www.statcan.ca STC Analytical Paper – The Age of Public Infrastructure in Canada (V. Gaudreault & P. Lemire, January 2006, cat no. 11- 621-MIE – no. 035 ) STC Contacts: Methodology - Marie-Claude Duval, 613-951-7308 Gerrit Faber, 613-951-9438 ICSP, CES – Irfan Hashmi, 613-951-3363 PISP – Aldo Diaz, 613-951-8563 Peter Elliott, 613-951-4551