1. Annual growth rates derived from short term statistics and annual business statistics Dr. Pieter A. Vlag, Dr. K. van Bemmel Department of Business Statistics, STATISTICS NETHERLANDS (CBS)

2. Starting Point 2003: systematic higher annual growth rates derived from annual structural business statistics than from short term statistics

3. STS versus SBS Similar for short term and annual statistics enterprises >= 50 employees: complete enumeration Different for short term and annual statistics enterprises < 50 employees 1.Short term survey (panel) Annual survey (independent) 2.Short term TO SMOOTH irregularities in MM-growth rates weighted to a population 1 corrected for administrative changes between two successive periods Annual weighted to real populations

4. STS important points Strata (NACE x size): Y k = w i y i )with w i =N/n -------------------------------------------------------------- Publication (NACE) : Turnover (estimate) Y T = Y k ) Index : I T = I T-1 * (Y T / Y T-1 ) CHAIN INDEX !!

5. Main explanation: panel approach in short term statistics

6. Formula index I T = I BASE * ( Y 2 /Y 1 ) * (Y 3 /Y 2 ) * (Y 4 /Y 3) ………………… * (Y T-1 /Y T-2 ) * (Y T /Y T-1) = I BASE * B * ( Y T /Y 1 ) With B = (Y 2 /Y 2 ) * (Y 3 /Y 3 ) ….. * (Y T-1 /Y T-1 ) B = measure for bias

7. Main explanation: panel approach in short term statistics B = 0,982

8. Results Approach 1 Retail trade ; annual growth rates at detailed publication levels (2003 -2004) original STS (%) adjusted STS (%) Small aggregates significant different results between original STS and adjustedSTS. Reason: survey too small

9. CONCLUSIONS Number of enterprises with less than 50 employees in The Netherlands 460.000 Survey: short term statistics 29.000 Survey: annual business statistics 85.000 DUE TO THE SMALL SURVEY SIZE: - Always a trade off between bias and variance. - LESSON LEARNED: order of bias should be known when taking a new methodology into production

10. New developments 2006: New business register Characteristics of the new register Better adjustment between statistical enterprise units and fiscal enterprise units _____________________________________ Strategy of Statistics Netherlands -> investigating whether growth rates of turnover can be derived from VAT.

11. Approach Enterprises with more than 50 employees -Data collection by Statistics Netherlands (complete enumeration) Enterprises with 50 or more employees -Growth rates in turnover derived from VAT (statistics: register-based) MONTHLY GROWTH RATE PREDICTS QUARTERLY GROWTH RATE QUARTERLY GROWTH RATE PREDICTS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

12. turnover covered by data (4th quarter 2006)

13. Pittfalls

14. Methodology

15. First results: similar seasonal patterns

16. First results: annual growth rates Expectation: no bias between annual growth rates derived from STS (future) and SBS (future)

17. First Results: pittfalls adjustments in monthly growth rates BIAS: between estimates after 30 days and after 60 days -> further investigation needed.

18. CONCLUSIONS IN CURRENT SITUATION -Different in annual growth rates derived from STS and SBS are related to a different methodology -Due to small sampling size: Always a trade off between bias and variance FUTURE -Using VAT-data for small enterprises eliminates the variance problem - By using VAT-data research is focussed on determining reliable monthly growth rates (bias/variance) influence of VAT – specific regulations (bias/variance) quality (current vs. future) (bias/variance) other variables (annual business statistics)