1. The 8 th UKFIET International Conference on education and development 13-15 September 2005 Learning and livelihood A policy informing model: The processing of demography as a determinant of the education system Dr Rouaan Maarman North West University South Africa

2. INTRODUCTION  Once upon a time; Ivor Richard (1981, 275) postulates that demography has an obvious and immediate effect on the development of national economies, the workforce and the whole social system. Therefore demographic patterns will have important implications for the development of education systems, which necessitate significant adjustments for those involved in policy formation, especially regarding the allocation of financial resources and the recruitment of teaching personnel. Ivor Richard (1981, 275) postulates that demography has an obvious and immediate effect on the development of national economies, the workforce and the whole social system. Therefore demographic patterns will have important implications for the development of education systems, which necessitate significant adjustments for those involved in policy formation, especially regarding the allocation of financial resources and the recruitment of teaching personnel. Global iniciatives of World Bank ( Millennium Development Goals) Global iniciatives of World Bank ( Millennium Development Goals) UNESCO (Education for All) UNESCO (Education for All) United Nations (Decade for education for Sustainable United Nations (Decade for education for Sustainable development & Literacy Decade) development & Literacy Decade) If 155 countries around the world report that 1 out of every 20 children are not attending school (Unesco, 2004), shouldn’t educational providers upgrade their understanding of the target group from a demographic perspective also ? If 155 countries around the world report that 1 out of every 20 children are not attending school (Unesco, 2004), shouldn’t educational providers upgrade their understanding of the target group from a demographic perspective also ? As long as the target group of the education system is viewed by educational providers (governments) as only pure numbers, the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) will fell far short of it’s ideal. As long as the target group of the education system is viewed by educational providers (governments) as only pure numbers, the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) will fell far short of it’s ideal.

3. Context of investigation  Demographic imperatives of our time demand a comprehensive understanding and approach in the education system planning- and provision context to address both quantity and quality in education system success.  Government awareness of the demographic imperatives in the education system context is suspect and provision usually start and end with learner numbers and funding. A rather short sighted approach considering the critical challenges regarding demography (target group).  Demographic trends need to be disclosed in the context of the education system, and local demographic trends should be approached in the context of the societal make-up of the target group.

4. What is demography ? Schematic representation of demography Population sizePopulation compositionPopulation change Marital status Absolute sizeEducation levelMortality DensityGenderOccupationFertility Relative sizeIncomeMigration Religious denomination AgeLanguage Ethnicity At given time Over given period

5. Method of research  Literature study: “Demography as determinant of the education system” and “Demography as determinant of the education system” and “ Demography and the education system of the North West province (South Africa)” “ Demography and the education system of the North West province (South Africa)”  Empirical research: To determine the impact of the demographic realities on the education system and the response of the education system to these demographic demands. To determine the impact of the demographic realities on the education system and the response of the education system to these demographic demands.  Explicit research questions: “How should learner and educator numbers be viewed in the education system from a planning perspective to level the playing field in terms of learning and livelihood?” “How should learner and educator numbers be viewed in the education system from a planning perspective to level the playing field in terms of learning and livelihood?” “ How should a model for the processing of demography in the education system looks like, to pursue basic educational access amidst the demographic demands on the education system?” “ How should a model for the processing of demography in the education system looks like, to pursue basic educational access amidst the demographic demands on the education system?”

6. On what do we base the demographic challenges for education systems ?  Context of universal demographic trends (Difference between LDC’s and MDC’s)  Enrolment rates  School life expectancy  Progression rates (through school grades)  Internal and external migration  Birth and mortality rates of target group  Educator attrition rates  Implications of age structure  HIV / Aids statistics  Increase/decrease in occupational sectors

7. A model for the processing of demography as a determinant of the education system  A:General demographic imperatives: Life context of the target group Life context of the target group Specific and unique regional demands Specific and unique regional demands Collective nature of planning Collective nature of planning Applicability of measuring instruments Applicability of measuring instruments Minimizing of census shortcomings Minimizing of census shortcomings Comparison of child statistics Comparison of child statistics Universal and national data Universal and national data Constant assessment of success indicators in coherence with each other Constant assessment of success indicators in coherence with each other Consideration of existing and changing learning needs Consideration of existing and changing learning needs Prediction capacity Prediction capacity

8. B:Relevant demographic imperatives  Accurate recording of these demographic data holds the key for adequate demographic processing in the education system.  Population numbers  Population growth  Mortality rates  Migration rates  Age distribution  Nuptuality  Education level, occupation & income of parents  HIV/Aids statistics

9. C:Structural education system approach  Education system policy Condition: Willingness to innovate and redefine priorities Condition: Willingness to innovate and redefine priorities Guidelines: Guidelines:  Variation and changing decision making  Balance between immediate expectations and agreed parameters  Maintenance of provision standards  Flexibility  Region-bound conditions and interpretation  Greater care with implementation

10. Structural education system approach, continuous …  Education system administration Condition: Time-bound administrative strategies and processes Condition: Time-bound administrative strategies and processes Guidelines: Guidelines:  Optimizing of education region administration  Viable educational infrastructure  Ongoing prioritizing of elements  Reconsideration and adjustment of monitoring and planning mechanisms  Involvement of stakeholders  Time-bound centralization and decentralization

11. Structural education system approach, continuous …  Structure for teaching Condition: Planning of all education levels before demographic waves impact and adapting elements to realities of intake area Condition: Planning of all education levels before demographic waves impact and adapting elements to realities of intake area Guidelines: Guidelines:  Viewing of demography in social context  Accurate monitoring of elements  Consideration of different post provision formulae for different school phases  Maintenance of information-rich databases for elements

12. Structural education system approach, continuous …  Support services Condition: Identification of new learning needs and matching and planning of elements Condition: Identification of new learning needs and matching and planning of elements Guidelines: Guidelines:  Provincial co-ordination of support services  Distinction between rural and urban schools  School-based services  Effective liaison with other components

13. General demographic prerequisites ↓ Relevant demographic imperatives ↓ Structural education system approach Education system policyEducation system administration Condition: Willingness to innovate and redefine priorities Other guidelines:  Variation and changing decision making  Balance between immediate expectations and agreed parameters  Maintenance of provision standards  Flexibility  Region-bound conditions and interpretation  Greater care with implementing Condition: Time-bound administrative strategies and processes Other guidelines:  Optimising of education region administration  Viable educational infrastructure  Ongoing prioritising of elements  Reconsideration and adjustment of monitoring and planning mechanisms  Involvement of stakeholders  Time-bound centralising and decentralising Education structureSupport services Condition: Planning at all education levels before demographic waves impact, and adapting elements to reality of intake area Other guidelines:  Viewing demography in social context  Accurate monitoring of elements  Consideration of different post provision formulas for different school phases  Maintenance of information-rich databases for elements Condition: Identification of new learning needs and the matching and planning of elements Other guidelines:  Provincial coordination of support services  Distinction between rural and urban schools  School-based services  Effective liaison with other components

14. Conclusion  Demographic fluctuations of societies have a vast array of implications for all components and elements of education systems  Components and elements of this model have a reciprocal effect on each other (model must be adapted to particular context)  Pursuit of models, practices and innovations which can be applied between relevant determinants and education systems, was the drive behind the investigation  The manufacturing of techniques which open doors for educational providers by means of a model to inform educational provision policy  From the perspective of demographic realities a model was presented to evaluate deficiencies of educational provision policies