1. Response Rates and Response Patterns among New Businesses: Results from the Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS) Zhanyun Zhao Frank Potter Yuhong Zheng Third International Conference on Establishment Surveys June 20, 2007 Montréal, Québec, Canada Zhanyun Zhao Frank Potter Yuhong Zheng Third International Conference on Establishment Surveys June 20, 2007 Montréal, Québec, Canada

2. Overview KFS Background Sample Design Non-Response Status Summary KFS Background Sample Design Non-Response Status Summary

3. Kauffman Firm Survey Longitudinal survey of new firms Study dynamics and sustainability of new firms Sponsored by Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation http://www.kauffman.org/ Dun & Bradstreet as the sampling frame Longitudinal survey of new firms Study dynamics and sustainability of new firms Sponsored by Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation http://www.kauffman.org/ Dun & Bradstreet as the sampling frame

4. Kauffman Firm Survey (Cont.) Pilot study (new firms founded in 2003) Main study (new firms founded in 2004) Baseline survey (5000 firms & weighting) First follow up (4000 firms) Second follow up (expect 3500 firms) Pilot study (new firms founded in 2003) Main study (new firms founded in 2004) Baseline survey (5000 firms & weighting) First follow up (4000 firms) Second follow up (expect 3500 firms)

5. Sample Design Stratified random sample Strata High tech industries (3 levels) Woman-owned indicator Over sampling for high tech firms Stratified random sample Strata High tech industries (3 levels) Woman-owned indicator Over sampling for high tech firms

6. High Tech Firms BLS definition based on D&B employment Used SIC rather than NAICS Three categories High Tech Medium Tech Non Tech BLS definition based on D&B employment Used SIC rather than NAICS Three categories High Tech Medium Tech Non Tech

7. Woman Owned Firms Woman owned indicator composite D&B Indicator CEOs gender / prefix Final indicator results Tested in the pilot study Added 20% using CEOs gender Woman owned indicator composite D&B Indicator CEOs gender / prefix Final indicator results Tested in the pilot study Added 20% using CEOs gender

8. Sample Frame High Tech Woman Owned June Frame Deceased in Nov New in Nov Total AllTotal Alive Total188,29213,43962,990251,282237,843 HighYes36121166527506 No2,2321231,1103,3423,219 MedYes4,3321531,2155,5475,394 No18,2127735,90224,11423,341 NonYes32,0162,1779,95141,96739,790 No131,13910,19244,646175,785165,593

9. Sample Selection and Release Stratified by technology (SIC) and woman owned Sequential selection Implicit strata: employee count, zip code Nov sample allocation based on June and Nov sample are balanced Reach Target 5,000 completes Released in waves Stratified by technology (SIC) and woman owned Sequential selection Implicit strata: employee count, zip code Nov sample allocation based on June and Nov sample are balanced Reach Target 5,000 completes Released in waves

10. Total Sample High Tech Woman Owned June Sample June Percent Nov Sample Nov Percent Total Sample Total23,94212.78,52713.532,469 HighYes361100166100527 No2,2321001,1101003,342 MedYes1,02923.823719.51,266 No4,74026.01,56826.66,308 NonYes2,0906.56706.72,760 No13,49010.34,77610.718,266

11. Non-response Adjustment CHAID and Propensity Score Independently within technology group Location model / Response model Key characteristics: High tech Woman owned Census division MSA Industry Legal status CHAID and Propensity Score Independently within technology group Location model / Response model Key characteristics: High tech Woman owned Census division MSA Industry Legal status

12. Response Rates Overall weighted rates Percentage located: 90.7 Percentage complete/located: 54.2 Percentage complete: 49.1 Response patterns on key characteristics … Overall weighted rates Percentage located: 90.7 Percentage complete/located: 54.2 Percentage complete: 49.1 Response patterns on key characteristics …

13. Stratification Factors

14. Sampling Strata

15. Geographic Region and Metropolitan Status

16. Industry

17. Legal Status

18. Item Non-response Focus on business financial data Total assets, equity, debt, profit etc. Include both main and subsequent question The subsequent question could have actual value or category High item response rate Main Q.Sub. Q. Mean98.9%95.6% Median99.1%96.7% Focus on business financial data Total assets, equity, debt, profit etc. Include both main and subsequent question The subsequent question could have actual value or category High item response rate Main Q.Sub. Q. Mean98.9%95.6% Median99.1%96.7%

19. Summary Stratified design to get precise understanding of newly formed firms, especially high tech Higher response rates are: Medium tech & woman owned Manufacturing Midwest, non-MSA Sole proprietorship Lower response rates are: Low tech & not woman owned Construction Northeast, MSA Partnership High item response rates in key questions Stratified design to get precise understanding of newly formed firms, especially high tech Higher response rates are: Medium tech & woman owned Manufacturing Midwest, non-MSA Sole proprietorship Lower response rates are: Low tech & not woman owned Construction Northeast, MSA Partnership High item response rates in key questions

20. Thanks Questions and paper requests: zzhao@mathematica-mpr.com MPR website http://mathematica-mpr.com Questions and paper requests: zzhao@mathematica-mpr.com MPR website http://mathematica-mpr.com