1. Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural and Other Comparisons Jerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen  Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory Meteorological Development Laboratory NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland  Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

2.  OZONE, 1200 UTC cycle 48-h experimental, 8-h (daily max) 48-h experimental, 8-h (daily max) CB05 chemical mechanism CB05 chemical mechanism  AEROSOLS, 0600 UTC cycle 48-h developmental, 1-h (daily max) 48-h developmental, 1-h (daily max) CB05, AERO-4 aerosol module CB05, AERO-4 aerosol module The NAM driven Community Multi- scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

3. EPA provided urban/rural classifications and elevation information over CONUS observing sites: ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716 urban areas shape file from U.S. Census note: these results are preliminary note: these results are preliminary Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, comparisons: urban vs. rural low vs. high elevation (>250 m) coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only)

4. 2x2 contingency definitions   FC = (a + d)/(a + b + c + d)  TS = a /(a + b + c) Thresholds Used:  POD = a/(a + c) Ozone: 76 ppb  FAR = b/(a + b) Aerosols: 35 ug/m 3

5. Number of observed values higher than 76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental 8-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 31

6. 500 mb height weather map July 21, 2011 Strong ridge in eastern U.S. very warm/moist air T.S. Bret 5880 m

7. Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 2011 1200 UTC experimental predicted in dark blue observed as red dots FC=0.755 TS=0.186 POD=0.810 FAR=0.805 CASES: 84

8. Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 2011 1200 UTC experimental predicted in dark blue observed as red dots FC=0.823 TS=0.265 POD=0.776 FAR=0.713 CASES: 98

9. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011 urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites rural FC=0.843 TS=0.191 POD=0.865 FAR=0.803 urban FC=0.827 TS=0.141 POD=0.966 FAR=0.858

10. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011 high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites high elev > 250 m FC=0.780 TS=0.152 POD=0.773 FAR=0.841 low elev 0 m FC=0.833 TS=0.150 POD=0.888 FAR=0.847

11. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011 inland (red) vs. coastal (green) sites coastal FC=0.747 TS=0.351 POD=0.935 FAR=0.640 inland FC=0.780 TS=0.152 POD=0.773 FAR=0.841 Blue: urban areas shape file from U.S. Census

12. Threat Score vs. # observations daily max, 8-h ozone, CONUS summer 2010 (red) 2011 (blue) 8-h ozone better performance on active days

13. Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011 urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites urban FC=0.817 TS=0.133 POD=0.164 FAR=0.586 rural FC=0.843 TS=0.145 POD=0.168 FAR=0.485 Note: no smoke emissions

14. Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011 high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites low elev 0 m FC=0.813 TS=0.129 POD=0.162 FAR=0.612 high elev > 250 m FC=0.793 TS=0.080 POD=0.096 FAR=0.667

15. Regional monthly bias of 1-h aerosols Jan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/m 3 Seasonal change in bias summer under-prediction seasonal change in bias summer under-prediction

16. Daily max 8-h ozone vs. elevation July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S. predictions (red) vs. observations (green) high elev > 250 m FC=0.822 TS=0.165 POD=0.917 FAR=0.832 ozone: over-prediction during the summer low elev 0 m FC=0.833 TS=0.150 POD=0.888 FAR=0.847

17. Daily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevation July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S. predictions (red) vs. observations (green) low elev 0 m FC=0.813 TS=0.129 POD=0.162 FAR=0.612 high elev > 250 m FC=0.793 TS=0.080 POD=0.096 FAR=0.667 aerosols: under-prediction during the summer

18. 8-h ozone Regions: (LM, UM, NE, SE), TS and POD Four different time periods # sites Urban vs. Ruralone weektwo weeksone monthtwo months Jul 17-24 '11Jul 17-31 '11Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31 '11 Rural TS0.1910.1620.1630.187136 Urban TS0.1410.1170.1510.186329 Urban POD0.9660.9170.7080.661 Rural POD0.8650.8780.7430.607 Low vs. High Elev Jul 17-24 '11Jul 17-31 '11Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31 '11 Low Elev TS0.1500.1220.1480.176574 High Elev TS0.1650.1450.1630.17487 Low Elev POD0.8880.8650.7080.622 High Elev POD0.9170.8710.6970.534 *Coast vs. *Inland Jul 17-24 '11Jul 17-31 '11Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31 '11 Coastal TS0.3510.2930.2700.31684 Inland TS0.1520.1310.1090.14560 Coastal POD0.9350.9220.7920.758 Inland POD0.773 0.5000.524 *NE region only

19. 1-h aerosols Regions: (LM, UM, NE, SE), TS and POD Four different time periods # sites Urban vs. Ruralone weektwo weeksone monthtwo months Jul 17-24 '11Jul 17-31 '11Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1-Jul 31 '11 Rural TS0.1450.1220.0850.084105 Urban TS0.1330.1110.1170.107138 Rural POD0.1680.1420.1000.099 Urban POD0.1640.1500.1510.140 Low vs. High Elev Jul 17-24 '11Jul 17-31 '11Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1-Jul 31 '11 Low Elev TS0.1290.116 0.117256 High Elev TS0.0800.0630.1240.10662 Low Elev POD0.1620.1600.1540.153 High Elev POD0.0960.0780.1450.124 Summary Ozone: higher TS on coast compared to inland (NE), low elevation: over-prediction in the summer. Aerosols: higher TS at low elevation, lower POD than w/ ozone, under-prediction in the summer.

20.  remove rural sites that are too close to urban areas, may have affected results.  compare by region, especially for the Pacific Coast (PC) region.  for aerosols, compare winter vs. summer, urban/rural, low/high elev.  compare different model configurations, NMM-B, 4 km.  expand inland vs. coast comparison to include entire U.S. east coast. Suggestions for future work: