1. Climate change and adaptive human migration Dr. Robert McLeman Department of Geography University of Ottawa

2. Theoretical & conceptual backdrop Migration is but one way by which households may adapt to climate-related stress Is not simple stimulus-response process Household adaptation options and migration decisions are condition by access to capital McLeman and Smit 2006

3. Empirical work Highlights from 3 projects

4. Project 1: Migration vs. other household adaptation options Oklahoma 1930s Severe droughts, crop failures McLeman 2006, 2007 McLeman et al 2007

5. Levels of adaptation Actor/scale Governance/ institutions Individual farm Type of adaptation Technological improvements Programs/subsidies Modify farming practices Non-farming adaptations after Smit and Skinner 2002

6. 1930s Oklahoma droughts Actor/scale Governance/ institutions Individual farm Type of adaptation Technological improvements Programs/subsidies Modify farming practices Non-farming adaptations came too late too costly already at maximum

7. 1930s Oklahoma droughts Adaptation options constrained by access to economic, social, cultural capital Particular types of capital facilitated out- migration by young, skilled families Feedback effects on adaptive capacity Drought areas lost human capital, social cohesion McLeman et al 2007

8. Project 2: Demographic change and community adaptive capacity www.addington.uottawa.ca

9. Observed climatic changes in Addington Highlands Shorter, milder winters with less snow Earlier spring conditions Warmer summers with less variability Increasingly windy with occasional micro- bursts (short, high-intensity windstorms)

10. Demographic change Population = 2,500 Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901 But…

11. Demographic change Population = 2,500 Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901 But…

12. Impacts on adaptive capacity Risks Pressure on health & emergency services Fewer people with survival skills Social cohesion breaking down Opportunity Skills of newcomers untapped

13. Project 3: Modeling climate- migration Building GIS model to combine climate & demographic data to identify “hotspots’ Start with western Canada – drought- related migration known to have occurred Can we model to local scale areas where severe drought & population decline coincided? McLeman et al. submitted

14. Datasets Canada census data 1926, 1931, 1936 Historical climate model data at 10km 2 grid cells (McKenny et al. 2006) Summer monthly temperature and precipitation data selected for 1926-36 Organized according to cumulative frequency of relatively hot, dry conditions

16. Population change 1931-36

17. Average summer precipitation 1926-36

18. Average summer temperatures 1926-1936

19. Combined data sets, 1931-36

20. Population decline exceeding 10% 1931-36

21. Thanks! Dr. Robert McLeman Assistant Professor Department of Geography University of Ottawa Canada K1N 6N5 rmcleman@uottawa.ca