1. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Climate Information for Society Roberto J. Mera Climate Modeling Laboratory Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences North Carolina State University National Climatic Data Center February 19th, 2010

2. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Global Warming? Recent events showcase the uncertainties inherent in the study of world climate It also offers us an opportunity to examine how climate change (natural or anthropogenic) relates to the general public

3. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Ongoing Research The questions facing decision makers are all multivariate in nature and shrouded in many vexing uncertainties Our work at the North Carolina State University (NCSU) Climate Modeling Laboratory (CML) explores the interface between climate information and end user applications

4. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Uncertainties

5. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University The Future of Climate Science: Climate Applications How will climate change affect healthcare? How will it affect food supply and energy demand?

6. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Education In 2008, UNC-Asheville ’ s Strategic Plan stated that the business community, government agencies and public policy-makers have identified climate change as an economic development priority for the region In 2009, plans for a Master ’ s degree in Climate Information for Society acquired support from the Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department at NC State University This degree also benefits from collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Plans for the degree are moving forward and classes could begin as early as fall 2011

7. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Internships & Opportunities A list of parties interested in a Climate and Society Master ’ s student: NCDC, Oakridge National Laboratories, Forest Service, NC State Climate Office, Unison Engine Components, Volvo North America, Mission Hospitals, Henderson Co., Durham Co., Orange Co., Town of Chapel Hill, City of Asheville, Biltmore Estate, Nature Conservancy, Progress Energy, Land of Sky, NC State Energy Office, SRC, AquaTerra, WildSouth

8. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Prospective students Undergraduate students Mid-career students Backgrounds vary from economics to environmental sciences, visual arts, non-profit, engineering, meteorologists, planners, government, business administration, ecology

9. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University International Perspective Interest on graduate and undergraduate climate change programs has gained momentum in West Africa and South America Collaboration with the SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START) program

10. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University

11. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University NOAA ISET @ NCSU Involves collaboration of PI's from Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Physics at NCSU, NCA&T, and CUNY and divided into two sub groups: Analysis of Observing Systems: Severe Storms & Hurricanes Research Analysis of Observing Systems: Physical and numerical research approach

12. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University NOAA ISET @ NCSU Recent Research: --African Easterly Wave interaction with Isentropic Descent off the coast of West Africa --GIS modeling of coastal flooding due to hurricanes in North Carolina --Variability of springtime westward-propagating disturbances in West Africa

13. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Relevance to Society The general population is more concerned with their own applications (health, agriculture, insurance) Climate data products are often too complex or irrelevant for the public sector New technology and techniques are required to relay climate information

14. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Problems with data The development of relevant products for society is reliant on the data available Much of the data is limited in scope, accessibility and format In-situ data, for example, is sometimes scattered and incomplete, making it less useable for agricultural management

15. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Data Access The US has an advantage over other countries that struggle with data acquisition and formats We work with various institutions to streamline conversion of climate data for specific applications New developments in the US are aimed at streamlining data access and visualization for specific applications

16. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Dissemination Collaborators: World Climate Research Programme, World Bank UCAR/USGS – Rocky Mountains Climate Response Center, cooperation between end-users and climate modelers (DeWayne Cecil, Jeffrey Kershner) Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) – GIS- based visualization products of extreme events / topography Google.org / UCAR Africa Initiative (meningitis outbreaks) – using IDV, GIS, GraDs, NCL and other graphics interface software

17. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Meningitis Outbreaks in West Africa: A Climate Application Study Google/UCAR Africa Initiative Project

18. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Meningitis in Africa Meningitis is a serious infectious disease affecting 21 countries 300 million people at risk 700,000 cases in the past 10 years 10-50 % case fatality rates

19. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Meningitis-Climate link Outbreaks coincide with dry, dusty conditions over the Sahel due to the Harmattan winds Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003) ‏ Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidity JanuaryJuly SHL Harmattan Moisture

20. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Largest correlation occurs between humidity and disease outbreaks (Molesworth et al., 2003)‏ Disease occurrence drops dramatically with the onset of humidity Previous studies have been aimed at specific locations and for the start of meningitis Pink: # of casesOrange: Relative Humidity (%) 19982004

21. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Current Efforts UCAR, in conjunction with IRI, NCSU, Navrongo (Ghana) Health Research Center are working on a prototype Earth-gauging system integrating weather and health data to manage meningitis The latest research was presented at the World Health Organization (WHO) Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies (MERIT) project meeting in Niamey, Niger in 2009

22. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Google/UCAR Project at NCSU Recent work for the MERIT project has been aimed at constructing a decision tree on “action threshold” for vaccine implementation This decision tree, however, does not include climate information at this point Our aim is to address the climate factors pertinent to meningitis mitigation

23. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Our Study: Predictability of Atmospheric Moisture What are the variables important for the prediction of the moisture regime? What are the sources of moisture in West Africa during the Boreal Spring? Can regional climate models forecast moisture transport dynamics?

24. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University The Variables Variables related to the West Africa monsoon have the highest correlation with meningitis We use relative humidity (RH) as an indicator in our study From Yaka et al (2008)

25. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Sources of Moisture We employ a parcel back-trajectory analysis utilizing u and v wind components from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for 2000-2008 The end points surface is set at 925mb *NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction *NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Source Regions P1 P3 P2

27. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Analysis of added value of dynamical downscaling We use the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF Model as both a predictive and analytical tool for High resolution reanalysis Real-time forecasts Sensitivity experiments Comparison with large-scale models Dynamical Downscaling Scale of relevance

28. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling WRF at 30km resolutionNCEP/NCAR Reanalysis at 2.5° Ghana

29. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Attack rates reanalysis & WRF

30. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Advantages of Dynamical Downscaling Kano

31. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Relaying Information We use prototype GIS technology to deliver climate- related information for meningitis mitigation in West Africa We can overlay climatic conditions of different types (remote sensing, in-situ, model) over meningitis attack rate reports

32. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Sample pages

33. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University IDV Visualization

34. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Future Work Data assimilation of satellite and in-situ information for further analysis of the meningitis- climate interface Integration of WRF into meningitis prediction Simulations using spectral nudging to retain large scale information from the air mass source regions Stratification of predictive model skill for different modes of variability

35. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Communication Updates on our work: http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/googleucar twitter.com/climlab

36. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Acknowledgements

37. Climate Modeling LaboratoryMEASNC State University Questions?